Eliminating Noise and Using Patience to Win DFS Tournaments

Establish the Edge Fantasy Football

Mike Leone goes solo this week, waxing philosophically over how we can apply Daniel Kahneman's new book, Noise, to NFL DFS. Mike outlines:
-why simple models beat human beings at prediction
-the danger of the "illusion of validity"
-how human judgement improves the information we feed the Establish the Run projections
-why we should trust those projections and not be variable or too active in tweaking our judgements on particular cases
-in other words: try to treat decisions based on player ceiling, projected value and field exposure, and correlation - no on how a player makes us feel
-getting outsized rewards for our patience in tournaments
-targeting slow starters with high ceilings like George Kittle and AJ Brown
-knowing when not to be patient and to adjust our priors quickly
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