How Do Bank Economists Make Property Forecasts? | Felicity Emmett, ANZ

The Elephant In The Room Property Podcast | Inside Australian Real Estate

Although rarely proven to come true, predictions by big banks are not merely speculative, but forecasts backed up by research and data…

But how exactly do bank economists come up with these property forecasts?

Felicity Emmett, Senior Economist at ANZ, joins us today to reveal the process big banks use to create housing market predictions based on the Australian economy… What data and key inputs do bank economists use for forecasting and analysis?

We also discuss the impact of property market forecasting on consumer confidence, the relationship between inflation and interest rates, and the current housing affordability crisis.

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Episode Highlights:

1. Why do big banks create property forecasts? [01:39]
2. Challenges bank economists encounter with forecasting [03:46]
3. Inputs into the forecasting process for the housing market [07:01]
4. The impact on house prices on consumer confidence [13:35]
5. The relationship between inflation and interest rates [19:29]
6. Consumer confidence in the property market [24:17]
7. The effect of capacity constraints in the economy [28:24]
8. Why it’s important to keep inflation down [32:30]
9. The current housing affordability crisis [34:20]
10. The effects of regulatory changes [38:42]
11. Who is the vulnerable sector in a possible recession? [44:00]
12. Stimulus measures to stabilize prices [48:08]
13. Why makes forecasting difficult to achieve accuracy? [50:36]

About our Guest:

Felicity Emmett is Senior Economist in the Australian Economic team at ANZ. With more than 20 years of experience as an economist in financial markets, Felicity is responsible for analysis and forecasting of key Australian macroeconomic indicators, as well as thematic research on the Australian economy. She also provides specialist analysis on topical issues, including the housing sector and the policy outlook.

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https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/246

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