1104 Can AI Predict the Future? Dan Schwarz on Forecasting, GPT, and the Next Decade of AI

thinkfuture: technology, philosophy and the future

Connect with Dan: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-schwarz-3805b854/Read More: https;//thinkfuture.substack.com---In this episode of thinkfuture, host Chris Kalaboukis speaks with Dan Schwarz, CEO and co-founder of FutureSearch, an AI startup on a mission to push the boundaries of forecasting. With a background as a software engineer at Google and CTO of Metaculous, Dan brings deep expertise at the intersection of technology, prediction, and decision-making.Can AI really predict the future? Dan says—yes, but with caveats. He shares FutureSearch’s research into the forecasting abilities of AI models like GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, revealing that while they outperform random chance, they still fall short of skilled human forecasters. However, the gap is closing fast, and Dan expects AI systems to reach—and potentially exceed—human forecasting abilities within the next 10–15 years.In this conversation, we explore:- The state of AI forecasting: where models like GPT-4 shine—and where they fail- How AI compares to human forecasters today- Why forecasting natural events (like earthquakes) is fundamentally different from predicting human behavior- How uncertainty shapes our ability to forecast the future- Techniques for operationalizing forecasts so organizations actually use them- Conditional forecasting and competitor-focused predictions as game-changers for business strategy- The ethical and practical implications of “superhuman” forecasting in politics, business, and society- What the world could look like in 2035 when AI becomes an “Oracle-like” forecasterDan envisions a future where AI-powered forecasting transforms decision-making in politics, business, and beyond—giving us tools to anticipate disruption, prepare for uncertainty, and make smarter, data-driven choices.If you’re interested in the future of AI, predictive analytics, or how technology could reshape our understanding of what’s coming next, this episode is packed with insights.