Jim Bonds Podcaster

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The Jim Bonds Show

Jim Bonds

12M ago49w ago

Daglig+

Up Close And Personal WIth Mr Jim Bonds.

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Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Jim

1d ago1d ago

Ukentlig+

There is nothing more fascinating than a fixed income instrument. Nothing. Listen to Jim transport you to a world of convexity, basis points, covenants and debt-to-gdp. For professional investors only. No advice here. No mention of funds or products. Personal thoughts, not that of any employer.

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show series

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UK Inflation Back To Target. And A Look At The Deutsche Bank Annual Default Study. 11:02

1d ago11:02

11:02

The ‘boiling frog’ impact of higher rates on credit is starting to be felt, but no big default rise until 2025.

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European Credit Spreads Widen On France Fears 9:00

3d ago9:00

9:00

And China leaves rates on hold, despite weak house price news.

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Zero Inflation in May, Bond Rally Underway 11:23

6d ago11:23

11:23

But French assets are really struggling, and credit is starting to weaken.

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French Bond Markets Wobble. And No Bank of England Reserves Interest Grab From Labour. 12:58

8d ago12:58

12:58

Also: a smorgasbord of other bond market ephemera.

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What A Week That Was! Elections Hit EM Assets, ECB’s ‘Unhappy’ Cut, And Bumper US Jobs. 11:21

10d ago11:21

11:21

US rate cut now not fully priced until December.

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EU Bonds Going Into Global Indices 10:27

20d ago10:27

10:27

Could mean less demand for traditional EZ sovereign debt, especially as France risks a downgrade from S&P.

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Who’s Best For The Economy - Labour or Conservatives? 11:27

23d ago11:27

11:27

Also: credit spreads are tight and stable. It was quiet - too quiet…. And CMBS takes its first big hit since the GFC.

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Bank Of England To Skip A June Rate Cut 10:26

27d ago10:26

10:26

And it’s not just because of July’s General Election - service sector inflation is too strong. 💪

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Doctor Copper Makes A Record High 9:02

1M ago9:02

9:02

Does that mean global growth is reaccelerating?

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Equity Yields Are Way Below Credit Yields. Does That Make Sense? 12:11

1M ago12:11

12:11

And Biden puts 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.

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US Economic Surprises Rolling Over? 9:07

1M ago9:07

9:07

Aggregate US stats are now disappointing- although the rest of the world is doing OK.

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Greenspan, ‘Atlas Shrugged’, & 2001 A Space Odyssey 10:59

1M ago10:59

10:59

Also: Swedish rate cut, and no more excess savings left in America.

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US Employment Weakens, Bonds Rally 8:59

2M ago8:59

8:59

2 year US Treasury bond yields drop from 5% to 4.75% in 2 days.

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Why Economics Needs To Be Sexier 10:52

2M ago10:52

10:52

And H5N1 (Bird Flu) starts to get attention in financial markets. Gulp.

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Gold vs Real Yields 11:20

2M ago11:20

11:20

Also: yen intervention at last? And US immigration at 3 million per year.

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US Growth Slows Sharply in Q1, But Bonds Don’t Like PCE Inflation. 5% 2 Year Treasury Yields. 10:49

2M ago10:49

10:49

And Japanese inflation goes the other way, with a downside shock.

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The Tortured Bond Investors Department 10:21

2M ago10:21

10:21

Ben Bernanke v the Bank of England.

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UJWOB Season 13: Bond Markets Now More Pessimistic Than The Fed On Rate Cuts 11:32

2M ago11:32

11:32

And: Skyscraper - I Love You.

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India 🇮🇳 Special: Bond Index Inclusion In June, And Economic Outperformance 16:11

3M ago16:11

16:11

And RIP behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman.

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Anniversaries Galore! And Has The Fed Changed Its Reaction Function? 9:10

3M ago9:10

9:10

Looser Fed, so Barclays says ‘buy TIPS’.

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Central Banks Getting Fidgety: Moves From Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan. 12:18

3M ago12:18

12:18

And I take a look at Monetary Policy Rules like the Taylor Rule (Spoiler Alert: the Fed should cut now).

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Finally - Good Inflation News For The First Time In Months. UK CPI Below Expectations. 8:19

3M ago8:19

8:19

Also: CPI index rebalancing, corporate default rates, and the extreme injustice of the Nottingham Forest points deduction.

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The End Of Negative Interest Rates in Japan 🇯🇵 11:47

3M ago11:47

11:47

The BoJ is expected to hike for the first time since 2007 later this week. And the Fed might signal a higher r* via the ‘dot plot’ at this week’s FOMC.

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Why Is The Last Mile The Hardest Mile? 10:07

3M ago10:07

10:07

And in credit-land, the NIP (New Issue Premium) has turned negative!

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The ‘Right Tail Risk’ Is Fading 10:59

3M ago10:59

10:59

The latest US jobs numbers reinforced the market’s view that the economy is resilient, but not re-accelerating.

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No Rabbits Left 🐇 For The UK 12:25

4M ago12:25

12:25

What does the Budget mean for gilts? And how does ‘tipflation’ get measured in the CPI?

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No Sign of Inflation Re-Accelerating In the PCE Deflator Data 11:14

4M ago11:14

11:14

And a load of economic ephemera to keep you entertained. Includes a disconnect in the textbooks as to the causes of the Great Depression.

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Larry Summers: A ‘Meaningful’ Chance Of A Fed Hike 8:56

4M ago8:56

8:56

And the cost of getting your kids driving a car. A drag on economic growth?

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Do NVIDIA’s Results Mean That r* Needs To Rise? 9:18

4M ago9:18

9:18

The AI boom could raise the world’s cost of capital.

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Fiscal Rules: Do Bond Investors Care? 18:06

4M ago18:06

18:06

And some economics related pop and rock songs. More needed please!

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‘Rishession’ For the UK 🇬🇧 10:26

4M ago10:26

10:26

And the Nikkei approaches its 1989 all time time, having fallen by 81% in the meantime.

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Government Bonds Start 2024 With A Bit Of A Kicking 9:20

4M ago9:20

9:20

And more motorway related urban myths.

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Is The Game Up For J-Pow As Trump Attacks? 7:33

5M ago7:33

7:33

And US employment is still on 🔥.

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Letter From America: the US Economic Outlook Live From Manhattan 15:05

5M ago15:05

15:05

What’s the best New York song by the way? The LCD Soundsystem one? Velvet Underground’s Waiting For My Man? Fairytale of NY? Empire State of Mind? Don’t say Frank Sinatra.

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How Italy 🇮🇹 Is Financing Its Budget Deficit: Grandma and Grandpa 12:05

5M ago12:05

12:05

Also: a shock for the UK economy with a collapse in retail sales.

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Why Do Americans Feel So Lousy About The US Economy? 10:05

5M ago10:05

10:05

Growth is strong, inflation is back towards target, jobs are plentiful.

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Un-Inversion. Upward Sloping Yield Curves Are Back! 9:51

5M ago9:51

9:51

Lowest 2 year yields since May 2023, despite a stronger than expected CPI print.

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Credit Starts 2024 on the Back Foot 12:22

5M ago12:22

12:22

Huge supply wave in January.

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Season 12 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds 12:37

6M ago12:37

12:37

Election year - definitely. Soft landing year - maybe.

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2024 Fixed Income Outlook: The Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds Special 38:59

6M ago38:59

38:59

Man I go on a bit. The stuff about The Pogues is at 38 minutes if you can’t face the rest.

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The End of Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds 9:24

7M ago9:24

9:24

In which Uncle Jim talks you through his brother-in-law’s Spotify Unwrapped.

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Alistair Darling, Moral Hazard and Northern Rock 10:35

7M ago10:35

10:35

And Eurozone inflation falls by more than expected.

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Charlie Munger RIP. And Fed’s Waller Triggers a Bond Rally 11:55

7M ago11:55

11:55

Also Noah Smith on productivity

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The UK’s Autumn Statement - Whoops We Did It Again? 13:36

7M ago13:36

13:36

Gilts underperformed significantly last week on higher borrowing expectations. Don’t worry though - it wasn’t as bad as the Trussonomics sell-off.

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The Turning Point? Inflation Falls, Bonds Rally, the Dollar Tanks. 11:33

7M ago11:33

11:33

US CPI for a October came in flat, leading to a big move lower in global bond yields.

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US Credit Rating At Risk. UK Growth Stagnates. 10:13

7M ago10:13

10:13

We also have Moody’s looking at Italy’s credit rating this week, with the risk of a downgrade to junk.

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Kilkenomics: Oh My God - It’s Kilkenny! 9:32

8M ago9:32

9:32

Also today - why you shouldn’t necessarily believe in really old people.

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Trump Trades 2024 13:43

8M ago13:43

13:43

What would you do with your portfolio if you knew Trump was going to be next US President?

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UJWOB Credit Special Part 2: Banks - The Dave Covey Interview 31:53

8M ago31:53

31:53

Banking analyst Dave Covey talks CS AT1s, BoA’s US Treasury bond holdings, CRE lending and so much more.

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The 4.99% US Treasury Yield and the Power of Convexity. 11:40

8M ago11:40

11:40

Also: ‘Kilts’ and Central Bank Stories.

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