Hosted by Nick Samuels of the US Public Finance team, Muniland delves into the latest developments impacting the credit environment for states, local governments, healthcare, higher education and more. In each episode, Moody’s analysts join Nick in exploring the ramifications of the pandemic, climate change, cyber risk, federal policy, pension burdens and other deep-seated challenges.
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Outlooks stable for healthcare and mass transit sectors in 2025
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Robust revenue gains and easing expense growth will buoy not-for-profit hospitals over the next 12 months, while state and local taxes will play a growing role in funding many of the nation’s transit systems. Guests: Nansis Hayek, Analyst - Moody’s Ratings; Rita Strauss, AVP-Analyst - Moody’s Ratings; Matt Butler, Vice President - Moody’s Ratings H…
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Rising insurance costs indicate growing climate risk for state and local governments
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The availability and affordability of home insurance is declining as damage from hurricanes and wildfires becomes more frequent. That could have negative implications for property values and tax revenues, particularly in the most disaster-prone states. Guests: Michael Wertz, VP - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Denise Rappmund, VP - Senior Analyst…
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US public schools grapple with depleted federal aid, rising salaries and falling enrollment
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The operating environment for K-12 districts is getting tighter as $190 billion in pandemic support ends, employee costs climb, and declining birthrates reduce the school-age population. Guest: David Levett, VP-Sr. Analyst - Moody’s Ratings Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only be availab…
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Ballooning stadium subsidies amplify risk for US states and local governments
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Stadium projects are often less financially beneficial than projected for the governments subsidizing them, though a shift toward multipurpose facilities brings the potential for enhanced returns. Guest: Greg Sobel, AVP-Analyst - Moody’s Ratings Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only be av…
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NCAA settlement and declining enrollment shift the higher education landscape
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Higher expenses after a $2.78 billion agreement on student athlete payments pose a credit risk for smaller colleges, which already face rising competition from larger, cheaper institutions. Guests: Patrick Ronk, AVP-Analyst - Moody’s Ratings; Nicole Serrano, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody’s Ratings Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s …
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Revenue shortfall leaves California facing a budget squeeze
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Spending cuts of $25 billion will ease the deficit, though out-migration of high earners remains a drag on revenue. K-12 education will avoid significant cuts, but is vulnerable if the economy slows. Guests: Matt Butler, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody’s Ratings; Helen Cregger, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody’s Ratings Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice Pr…
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Insurance crisis poses credit risks for hurricane-prone Florida and Louisiana
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As climate issues mount, residents face escalating property insurance costs and, in some cases, difficulty obtaining coverage at all, which threatens to hurt the economy and curtail tax collections. Guests: Bola Kushimo, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings and Denise Rappmund, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Hos…
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Graying of America poses financial risks for many local governments
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Local governments face a loss of economic vitality and tax revenue as the working-age population declines. Meanwhile, a tighter labor supply remains a chronic issue for the hospital sector. Guests: Frank Mamo, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings and Dan Steingart, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings Host: Nick Samue…
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Intensifying droughts turn up the heat on US state and local governments
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As water shortages threaten to curb economic growth, governments in many parts of the country are stepping up investment in water management and conservation. Guests: Sunny Zhu, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Maddie Atkins, Analyst - Moody’s Ratings Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only…
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Red Sea disruptions reshape cargo dynamics on America's East and Gulf Coasts
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Suspension of commercial shipping in the Suez Canal and reduced activity in the drought-afflicted Panama Canal have the potential to reduce revenue at key US ports. Guest: Moses Kopmar, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may o…
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Major US cities’ pension risks are easing, but far from retired
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Pension liabilities for large local governments are falling because of higher interest rates. This dynamic — and greater contributions —bodes well for credit quality, though investment risk lingers. Guest: Tom Aaron, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Servic…
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Higher education outlook returns to stable
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While pandemic pain lingers, our higher education outlook has improved to stable from negative as revenue grows, margins steady and balance sheets remain generally healthy. Guest: Chris Collins, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.c…
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Hospitals’ prospects improve after severe struggles starting with the pandemic
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We have revised our outlook for the US not-for-profit healthcare sector to stable from negative as a recovery takes hold, largely driven by a slowdown in the growth rate of labor costs. Guest: Matt Cahill, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related conte…
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US states get pension relief; English local governments face mounting financial stress
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States’ pension liabilities, a source of credit stress for years, are declining and providing financial flexibility. In England, some local governments are grappling with substantial deficits. Guests: Sunny Zhu, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service and Zoe Jankel, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Se…
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San Francisco’s outlook dims as remote work cools downtown activity
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With a slower economy in the central business district, the city projects deficits and we’ve changed our outlook to negative. We’ve done the same for Bay Area Rapid Transit with its ridership drop. Guests: Joe Manoleas, Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service and Maddie Atkins, Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Sam…
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Recreational marijuana sales provide modest revenue lift for states
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States with legal recreational marijuana are generating tax dollars for various needs, but no more than Nevada’s 2.5% of state revenue. Policy changes, however, have the potential to boost the amount. Guest: Greg Sobel, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service…
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College closures gradually increase as higher education faces myriad challenges
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With bankruptcy to shed debt and stay open largely unviable, colleges grappling with falling enrollment and rising costs are increasingly closing. In a shutdown, bondholder outcomes are a wild card with the amount of reserves on hand and value of real estate assets playing a role. Guest: Susan Shaffer, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’…
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Artificial intelligence’s credit effects unfold for universities; US ports’ outlook remains stable
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ChatGPT’s rollout has sharpened universities’ focus on AI pitfalls such as cheating and benefits like improved educational outcomes. Plus, US ports’ cargo volumes are way down, but business models and finances provide stability. Guests: Patrick Ronk, Analyst – Moody’s Investors Service and Moses Kopmar, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Inve…
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Detroit’s former bankruptcy czar says restructuring worked for the city
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Kevyn Orr, who led Detroit’s 2013 bankruptcy filing, weighs in on why the landmark event enabled a turnaround for the city and recounts some of the restructuring’s peculiarities, including Renoir’s involvement. At Moody’s, the bankruptcy marked such an inflection point that it prompted changes in our credit analysis. Naomi Richman, a senior vice pr…
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‘Forever chemicals’ are a financial hazard for water utilities, cities and manufacturers
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With an EPA proposal, US municipal utilities and cities are facing mounting costs to remove toxic PFAS, also known as forever chemicals, from drinking water. Yet the utilities’ ability to raise customer rates to recoup costs will limit credit risks. Meanwhile, companies that make the chemicals or products with them are dealing with a barrage of law…
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Global electric vehicle surge is a bumpy ride for insurance, auto finance, state highway bonds
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Moody’s analysts discuss accelerating electric vehicle sales’ effects on US auto insurers and auto finance captives, and implications for state fuel taxes. Speakers: Matthias Heck, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Inna Bodeck, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Jasper Cooper – VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s I…
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Most US universities can handle recent drops in endowment values
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Weak investment returns have chipped away at endowment values, but universities manage endowments with expectations of volatility, easing some of the adverse credit effects. Guests: Liz Clark, vice president for policy and research, National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) and Susan Shaffer, Vice President – Senior …
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Hospitals face increased financial pain
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Hospital credit stress is not going away as labor costs, largely driven by a nursing shortage, drive up expenses and capacity constraints squeeze revenue. Guests: Brad Spielman, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service and Dan Steingart, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels, S…
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Prospects weaken for US airports, toll roads and ports
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The faltering economy threatens to slow growth in travel and cargo volumes, which underpin credit quality for the three infrastructure sectors. All three, however, have strong balance sheets and other advantages that will help them navigate the difficulties. Guests: Ursula Cassinerio, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service an…
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New York City Comptroller Brad Lander talks social bonds, boosting reserves and the city’s economy
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Muniland welcomes New York City’s comptroller to discuss the city’s first social bond, affordable housing, his push to increase budget reserves and what’s next for the city’s economy. Guest: Brad Lander, New York City comptroller Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors ServiceAv Brad Lander, Nick Samuels
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Higher education and mass transit outlooks turn negative for 2023
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Macroeconomic conditions, enrollment troubles and muted revenue growth will continue to hinder colleges and universities. For mass transit, a weak ridership recovery and looming end to federal pandemic aid signal more tough times ahead. Guests: Susan Shaffer, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Jared Brewster, Vice Pres…
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A one-notch upgrade has Chicago moving into investment grade. The city is set to benefit from a policy calling for greater pension contributions aimed at preventing growth in its unfunded pension burden. Guests: Rachel Cortez, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Investors Service and David Levett, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors…
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Biden administration’s student debt relief plan poised to benefit colleges and universities
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A less-discussed part of the plan, which revamps income-driven undergraduate loan payments, will boost enrollment. Plus, Florida municipal issuers have tools to limit Hurricane Ian credit risks. Guests: Patrick Ronk, Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Lauren Von Bargen, Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Val Gomez, Vice…
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US states positioned to ward off effects of a recession
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With flush rainy day funds and flexibility to cut costs, states are poised to avoid credit stress if a severe economic tailspin or even a recession takes hold. Plus, housing finance agencies’ credit quality remains strong, but the HFAs face challenges in the current economic environment. Guests: Sunny Zhu, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, Moody’s …
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Inflation set to drive up state and local government costs for labor, hurricane recovery
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Inflation stands to increase personnel costs and budget stress for states and municipalities, in part because of competition from the higher-paying public sector. Plus, peak hurricane season arrives amid the elevated inflation, driving up rebuilding costs for governments along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts if they’re hit by a major storm. Guests: Da…
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Sales taxes help state and local governments soften inflation blow
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Rising prices are boosting state and local governments’ sales tax revenue, lessening their burden from inflation-driven cost increases. Plus, Marcia Van Wagner, who is retiring as a state analyst, speaks about her career path and offers some insight into how today’s inflationary environment compares with the turmoil in the 1970s and 1980s. Guests: …
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Crypto gains toehold in public finance; states move to ban ransomware payments
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Digital currencies provide states and local governments with a means to collect taxes and utility fees, while universities are accepting tuition payments and donations in crypto form. Plus, states are making efforts to ban their municipalities from making ransomware payments, hoping to deter future cyberattacks. Guests: Greg Sobel, Assistant Vice P…
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Puerto Rico bondholder recoveries reinforce patterns; cities face mounting flood risks
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Recovery patterns in Puerto Rico’s bankruptcy-like case resemble large municipal bankruptcies such as Detroit. Also, flood risks threaten to weaken some cities’ property tax bases, increase the need for infrastructure investment and disrupt the economy. Guests: Al Medioli, Senior Vice President – Ratings and Process Oversight, Moody’s Investors Ser…
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Universities grapple with enrollment hurdles; states face credit risks from gas tax holidays
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Susan Fitzgerald and Chris Collins of the US Public Finance team discuss enrollment and other revenue challenges affecting higher education. Plus, Ted Hampton discusses how gas tax suspensions will affect states’ capacity to pay debt on bonds backed in large part by the suspended taxes. Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to …
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Public finance issuers will withstand moderately high inflation; infrastructure law will improve bridge conditions
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Tom Aaron of the US Public Finance team and Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy and Research team examine why states, local governments and other public finance issuers are generally positioned to withstand moderately rising inflation. Plus, Chris Yared and Michael Wertz discuss to what extent federal infrastructure funding will address the 44,000…
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Telehealth boosts struggling healthcare sector; tech helps Midwest shake off some rust
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Nansis Hayek and Matt Cahill of the US Public Finance team discuss how the pandemic-driven telehealth surge is helping the challenged healthcare sector. Plus, analysts Baye Larsen and Ted Hampton explain how manufacturing computer chips in Ohio and electric vehicles in Michigan will help the Rust Belt. Related content on Moodys.com (some content on…
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US state tax revenue growth will slow, ESG exposure remains for state, local governments
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Marcia Van Wagner of the US Public Finance team discusses reasons behind the falloff in soaring state tax revenue growth, including expired federal pandemic aid and interest rates. Plus, Jennifer Chang, Adebola Kushimo and Coley Anderson weigh in on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues facing state and local governments and delve into …
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US hospitals face turbulence; state and local government outlooks are stable
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Kendra Smith of the US Public Finance team discusses why a nursing/labor shortage and difficulties with insurer reimbursement contribute to our negative outlook for the healthcare sector. Plus, Tim Blake and Leonard Jones weigh in on solid tax revenue growth during the pandemic playing a leading role in the stable outlooks for states and local gove…
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Hospitals grapple with nursing shortage; small public finance borrowers make a comeback
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Matt Cahill and Beth Wexler of the US Public Finance team discuss financial challenges hospitals face from a shortage of nurses and other employees. Plus, Dan Seymour weighs in on how some smaller public finance issuers are recovering from pandemic-driven shutdowns. In this Episode: Matt Cahill and Beth Wexler of the US Public Finance team discuss …
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Air traffic rebound continues to boost US airports; US city and state pension burdens ease
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Analyst Earl Heffintrayer of the Project and Infrastructure Finance team discusses how the air traffic recovery is helping US airports and their ability to weather COVID-19 surges. Plus, Eva Bogaty of the US Public Finance team examines prospects for tourism destinations Hawaii and Las Vegas and Tom Aaron weighs in on investment returns reducing pe…
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US infrastructure bill would reduce lead contamination; US West drought hits water supply
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Dan Kowalski and Michael Wertz of the US Public Finance team discuss the bill’s funding to replace lead service lines and water utilities facing a mix of aging assets and climate change. Plus, Steven Goodman-Leibof and Helen Cregger weigh in on the credit effects of water reductions in Arizona, Nevada and California. Inside this episode: Dan Kowals…
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Chicago and Illinois’ prospects brighten; US public finance sector proves durable
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David Levett and Ted Hampton of the US Public Finance team delve into Chicago and the State of Illinois’ improved prospects despite heavy pension obligations. Also, Sarah Jensen and Al Medioli discuss the lack of pandemic-driven defaults among US public finance credits we rate. Inside this episode: David Levett and Ted Hampton of the US Public Fina…
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US state debt climbs; municipalities confront wildfire and hurricane seasons
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Emily Raimes of the US Public Finance team discusses the rise in state debt amid COVID-19 and the role borrowing will play as states’ infrastructure needs mount. Plus, Joe Manoleas and Val Gomez delve into the potential effects of wildfires in California and hurricanes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Inside this episode: Emily Raimes of the US …
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Cyber risks mount across US public finance; demographic trends shape municipalities’ economic future
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Michael Osborn, Heather Correia and Matthew Cahill of the US Public Finance team discuss the increasing cyber threats facing universities, state and local governments, hospitals and transit systems. Also, Pisei Chea weighs in on what recent US Census results signal about states’ economic fortunes, while Frank Mamo comments on municipalities’ prospe…
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Federal aid improves US mass transit prospects; barriers to gender equality weigh on public finance
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Baye Larsen and Ken Kurtz of the US Public Finance team discuss how federal aid is buoying mass transit, but that a new normal awaits, with sector-wide ridership settling in below pre-pandemic levels. Plus, Val Gomez and Marcia Van Wagner explain how the pandemic has slowed progress toward gender equality in the labor force with implications for ta…
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Illinois withstands pandemic’s financial effects; US airport sector benefits from passenger lift
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Ted Hampton of the US Public Finance team discusses how the State of Illinois is weathering COVID-19’s financial difficulties while pension obligations continue to weigh on its credit quality. Plus, Earl Heffintrayer and Myra Shankin of the Project and Infrastructure Finance team weigh in on the US airport sector’s improving prospects as passenger …
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US state and local government outlooks improve, driven by revenue performance and robust federal support
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Inside this episode: Matthew Butler and Natalie Claes of the US Public Finance team discuss how better-than-expected revenue and a new wave of federal assistance spurred the outlook changes for US state and local governments in the face of the pandemic. Related content: States – US Outlook improves to stable amid stronger budgetary picture and fede…
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Federal aid helps US states cope with pandemic as universities face unprecedented disruption
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In the inaugural episode of Moody’s Talks – Muniland, Pisei Chea and Jared Brewster of the US Public Finance team discuss the effects of federal policies on states and higher education. Also, Susan Fitzgerald and Michael Osborn focus on how the pandemic’s upheaval will affect the year ahead for colleges and universities, including enrollment and de…
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Welcome to Muniland! Hosted by Nick Samuels of the US Public Finance team, Muniland delves into the latest developments impacting the credit environment for states, local governments, healthcare, higher education and more. In each episode, Moody’s analysts join Nick in exploring the ramifications of the pandemic, climate change, cyber risk, federal…
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