Kopi Time Podcast With Taimur Baig podcast

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E152: IMF’s Asia head Krishna Srinivasan on tariffs and the region 36:16

for 15 dager siden36:16

36:16

Dr. Krishna Srinivasan, IMF’s Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, takes us on a journey of Asia, which is facing a major challenge to its export-led growth model. With geoeconomic fragmentation intensifying, how do nations strike a balance between trade promotion and domestic demand support? From China to India, South Korea to Vietnam, what is the outlook for growth, interest rate, and exchange rate, and what are the IMF’s fiscal, monetary, and structural policy prescriptions? What are the risk scenarios, given the heightened levels of uncertainty? What about the usage of the US dollar and financial stability risks? Krishna offers valuable insights on these questions. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E151 - Private Equity with Alicia Gregory, Blue Owl 43:51

for 5 weeks siden43:51

43:51

Alicia Gregory, Managing Director at Blue Owl, an alternative asset manager, joins Kopi Time to walk us through private equity, a USD12trln asset class. Drawing on her extensive experience as a PE investor, Alicia begins by going over the genesis of the industry. We then go through a number of topics, including the structure of private equity investments, key investment strategies, PE’s track record relative to public equity markets, and the state of the PE cycle and the outlook for 2025. We also cover the PE secondary market, connection between private debt and private equity, PE’s foray into retail, and possible risks in PE investment. A deep dive indeed. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E150 - Piyush Gupta on the Present and Future of Banking 52:10

for 7 weeks siden52:10

52:10

Kopi Time hits 5 years and 150 episodes! We celebrate the milestone with Piyush Gupta, outgoing CEO of DBS Bank Ltd. Piyush brings his remarkable intellectual breadth in this conversation, in which we touch upon various aspects of the present and future of banking. We begin by discussing how banks in Asia and the West have evolved since the 2008/09 global financial crisis, and their track record in embracing digital banking, financial inclusion, risk management, and relationship with regulators. Piyush then weighs in on conventional banks versus pure-play digital banks. The conversation moves on to the digital asset ecosystem and what that means for both banks and central banks going forward. We also talk about cyber security and banks’ role in green transition. We conclude with Piyush’s take on the promise and challenge of AI, particularly LLMs. What makes him hopeful? It’s the capacity of humanity to absorb all sorts of transformations and cataclysms, and yet move forward. This is not goodbye; we will have Piyush back. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E149 - Longevity with Brian Kennedy 40:37

for 9 weeks siden40:37

40:37

We welcome a foremost expert on the science of aging, lifespan, and healthspan, Professor Brian Kennedy, Distinguished Professor of Biochemistry and Physiology, National University of Singapore. In this fascinating conversation, we begin by understanding senescence, the process of functional decay of organisms. Prof Kennedy explores aging at physical and cognitive levels, and its linkage with genetics, diet, and exercise. We then delve into the scientific work going with several molecules that appear to be promising in slowing cell decay, including alpha keto-glutarate, spermidine, and the in-vouge NAD. Prof Kennedy is a keen proponent of data-driven personalised approach to medicine, seeing a great deal of promise in the application of gene therapy, stem cell therapy, and artificial intelligence. At the end, I ask him if aging is a disease that can be cured; let’s just say he has an intriguing response! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E148 - Private Credit with Fitch’s Meghan Neenan 33:58

for 11 weeks siden33:58

33:58

We dive into the rapidly growing world of private credit. Meghan Neenan, managing director and the North America head of Non-Bank Financial Institutions at FitchRatings, walks us through the sector’s genesis, scale, depth, structure, participants, transparency of reporting, and regulatory dimension. What are the vulnerabilities around the economic cycle? Are there financial stability risks? What are the newest trends, from the spread of retail offerings to blended structures? Is this an inflection moment for private credit, as it jumps toward ubiquity? Meghan is clearly constructive. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E147 - Kishore Mahbubani on a Fragmenting World 54:08

for 13 weeks siden54:08

54:08

We welcome back to Kopi Time Kishore Mahbubani, distinguished diplomat, academic, and writer on geopolitics. Our conversation, recorded in Mumbai, kicks off with India’s promise and challenges vis-à-vis the US and China, with the former turning increasingly protectionist and latter facing a myriad of domestic and external challenges. Mahbubani sees no room for emotion in geopolitics, expecting to see India follow its pragmatic instincts to pursue industrialisation with capital and technology from both superpowers. We then discuss Trump 2.0, the future of multilateralism, and Asia’s place in the great power rivalry. Always sharp and insightful. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E146 - Trade War with Deborah Elms 50:08

for 15 weeks siden50:08

50:08

We welcome back Dr. Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at Heinrich Foundation, Singapore, for a timely discussion on intensifying trade wars. We set the context by looking at the past decade of rising protectionism and the impact on the global economy. Deborah points out that despite all the frictions, global trade volume has increased. But at the same time, industry lobbying for protection has also risen, and the dream of creating numerous manufacturing jobs has remained largely unfulfilled. The irony is that protectionism, in today’s tech and automation-intensive production processes, rewards the capital owner much more than labour. We then think through the likely measures and possible retaliations under Trump 2.0. Later we move on to the state of various trade initiatives like CP-TPP and RCEP; Deborah highlights that much more needs to be done given the intensifying headwinds. We conclude with a fascinating discussion on the evolving nature of trade in goods vs services, diffused nature of ownership, and the various, specious national security arguments. Trade war is here to stay; analysts like Deborah are crucial in navigating through the resulting fog. Deborah’s latest article: hinrichfoundation.com/research/article/trade-and-geopolitics/why-a-battle-to-define-connected-cars-matters/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E145 - Markets and Trump 2.0 17:00

for 16 weeks siden17:00

17:00

Happy new year! We kick off the year with a discussion on the likely impact of Trump policies on US markets, starting with the 1890s McKinley tariff narrative. There are major lessons for the market outlook from that episode, in our view. Returning to the present, we think through the ways tariffs and immigration measures can complicate the inflation picture and the Fed easing narrative. From there, we consider implications for rates, credit, and FX. We then assess the Asian outlook in the context of Trump 2.0. We end with a stock-taking of China’s recent economic performance and the road ahead for supportive measures. Two recent publications: Macro Insights Weekly: The coming trade shock and Asia ASEAN-6 2025 Outlook: Crosswinds See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E144 - 2025 outlook with Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar 55:50

for 21 weeks siden55:50

55:50

We bring the year to an end with astute market strategist and Fed watcher Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar. Sri begins by taking stock of the US economy and markets, how they have been fuelled by fiscal stimulus and the Fed put. Sri is a strong critic of the Fed’s track record on price and financial stability, and he worries that inflation and market risks could be back on the horizon in 2025, even if they seem remote now. We talk about the balance sheet of US households, which look fine on aggregate, but Sri points out that those at the low-end of the income spectrum are struggling with high cost of living and debt service. On corporate balance sheet, Sri worries about commercial real estate and the proliferation of private equity and debt. We then take a look at the outlook for the dollar, gold, and EM assets. Sri sees a year of two halves; first the Trump trades and then the fading of the sugar rush. Expect a volatile 2025. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E143 - Markets and Policy Path Dependence with Mustafa Chowdhury 58:55

for 23 weeks siden58:55

58:55

Are today’s policy challenges and market behaviour largely about post pandemic macro, or are they reflecting fiscal, monetary, and financial “dominance” that stem from two decades of interventions? Mustafa Chowdhury, a veteran of bond and credit market analysis, returns to Kopi Time to offer a nuanced but highly important perspective on the impact of policy distortion on market behaviour. Why did the long-end of the US yield curve sell-off after the September rate cut? Why haven’t banks reduced their duration exposure despite the regional bank crisis last year? Why are long-term mortgage rates so high and why aren’t short-term products available? And still, why is the housing market so strong? What about the perennial academic and policy debate on price levels versus differences, and how has that caused monetary policy errors? Given all this, what is the outlook for rates, FX, credit, and financial stability? This rich conversation offers excellent insights; a must listen for economists and market strategists. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E142 - Tech and security with Gaurav Keerthi 52:03

for 24 weeks siden52:03

52:03

Gaurav Keerthi, Head of Advisory and Emerging Business at Ensign InfoSecurity, joins Kopi Time to provide a fascinating overview of the current state of affairs in cybersecurity. We begin with the intersection of geopolitics and cyberattacks. From state sponsored defensive and offensive teams to independent actors with a range of motives, the number of agents attacking the integrity of national power grids, airports, water supply, along with healthcare and education systems, has proliferated at an extraordinary pace in recent decades. In addition to nations, large companies and individuals face millions of attacks a day that are increasingly sophisticated. Even with a tiny fraction succeeding, cyber crimes have become an economy worth hundreds of billions of the dollars. Gaurav works through the processes behind building systems that are not 100% immune from cyberattacks, but capable of bouncing back in the event of an attack. With AI in play already, and quantum on track to disrupt cryptography, new waves to technology are making cyber defence more challenging, but the same tech is also being used to build tools and practices for higher degrees of surveillance and resilience. Gaurav’s views are more realistic than pessimistic, focused on risk management. A must listen. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kop Time E141 - Ashish Gupta on India's Financial Markets 51:45

for 25 weeks siden51:45

51:45

All about India’s financial markets with Ashish Gupta, CIO of Axis Mutual Fund, one of the largest and fastest growing asset management companies in India. Ashish digs into his multi-decade experience on covering Indian banks and nonbank financial companies to lay out a comprehensive picture of the current state of affairs. We go over the factors underlying the buoyancy of India’s public and private capital markets, investor sentiment and behaviour on equities, RBI’s regulatory role, and bank balance sheets and earnings outlook. Ashish provides excellent insights into the dynamic of successful exits by foreign investors laying the ground for the next round of inflows. Financialisation of India’s economy has gone from strength to strength in recent decades; Ashish explains why this story has legs. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E140 - US Elections with Angela Mancini 25:14

for 26 weeks siden25:14

25:14

We dive into the implications of Donald Trump’s emphatic win at the US presidential elections. Angela Mancini, partner at Control Risks, a global specialist risk consultancy, discusses the factors underlying the outcome, its implication for US policy, especially with regards to Asia. We talk about business strategies under Trump 2.0, and the key issue--risks around China-US relations. We also talk about where the Democratic Party goes from here. The podcast was recorded at our annual macro and markets outlook event. Here is the publication that goes with it. Defying the trend: Economic Outlook and Market Strategy for 2025 . See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E139 - Fintech Zeitgeist with Varun Mittal 44:29

for 27 weeks siden44:29

44:29

What is the current state of fintech? Varun Mittal, founder of Fintech Nation, returns to Kopi Time after nearly 100 episodes to comment on the changes in the last four years. We discuss the depth and breadth of the sector, its profitability and investor returns across geographies, and the competition/collaboration relationship between banks and nonbank financial companies. We discuss fintech’s role in wealth planning and financial inclusion, the proliferation of payments solutions, and the state of development in the worlds of cryptos, stablecoins, and CBDCs. Discussions then move on to the impact of AI/GenAI on the financial sector and likely forthcoming regulation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E138 - IMF Notes; Economic Resiliency and Financial Risks 11:24

for 28 weeks siden11:24

11:24

This podcast is an 11-minute reflection on the recently concluded IMF annual meetings, held at Washington DC. The meetings were characterised by relief over global economic resiliency, juxtaposed by heightened concerns about a variety of risks. Global growth is expected to remain stable between 2024 and 2025. Concerns about inflation have receded, but we caution against a victory lap. USD weaponisation and trade wars are causing investor strategies to shift. EM resilience would be tested by the outcome of the US elections. Intersection of AI and capital markets is generating interest from regulators. We discuss a chapter in the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report on this theme. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E137 - US public debt and deficits with Shai Akabas 34:10

for 29 weeks siden34:10

34:10

Shai Akabas, Executive Director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program, joins Kopi Time to discuss all things US fiscal. There is no silver lining in this conversation, the outlook is gloomy, period. We begin with the US fiscal position over the past 25 years, going from balanced budget to deficits of around 7% of GDP, from net debt/GDP of 35% to 100%. Shai walks us through the various unfunded tax cuts and emergency spending outlays, with no consensus on dealing with the ballooning fiscal obligations, that led to today’s situation. And the outlook, with funding for various entitlement programs getting stretched precisely when spending needs are rising due to aging, is even gloomier. Tax increases, even if not through policy but by better enforcement of current laws could help, but that requires a well-funded tax authority. Tariffs, as disruptive as they are to the global economy, make up for a tiny part of total revenues. Bold bipartisan legislation to deal with entitlements is long overdue. Spending more on interest costs than national defence or healthcare is simply not tenable for the medium term; reforms are needed urgently. Shai’s warnings are loud and clear; hopefully they are heeded at some point in this decade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E136 - Drew Thompson on Taiwan from Multiple Perspectives 58:48

for 31 weeks siden58:48

58:48

Drew Thompson, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, brings his deep China and Taiwan expertise to Kopi Time. Taiwan stands at the crossroads of tech manufacturing excellence and geopolitical tension. How does its recent political developments look from the perspective of its local population, mainland China, and the US administration? How will its politics and economic policies evolve in the coming years? Beyond the superpowers, how is Taiwan’s relationship evolving vis-à-vis SE Asia, India, S Korea, and Japan? What are the risk scenarios ahead? Drew provides unvarnished perspectives and analysis. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E135 - Techno-nationalism with Alexander Capri 57:28

for 32 weeks siden57:28

57:28

Writer and academic Alexander Capri returns to Kopi Time after nearly 5 years, but the issues we discussed then and now remain relevant, if not even more so. In this engaging chat, Alex walks us through the expanding notion of techno-nationalism, its impact on trade patterns and flows, and corporate strategies around geopolitical fragmentation. We touch upon the innovation race between China and the US, China’s digital belt-and-road strategy, and the trans-Atlantic tech alliance. We consider the implication of all this for South-East Asia, as well as India. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E134 - Vasuki Shastry on India’s Manufacturing Future 1:05:57

for 34 weeks siden1:05:57

1:05:57

Vasuki Shastry, Senior Advisor at Gatehouse Advisory Partners, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the decade-old “Make in India” initiative. From Production Linked Incentives (PLI) to splashy marketing campaigns, this has been a signature initiative by the Indian government under Prime Minister Modi. What has been the accomplishment of this effort to usher in a new era of manufacturing in India? Vasuki’s report card is blunt—"it has been a qualified failure.” We go through the data on investment, job creation, technology transfer, and competition to assess his claim. We also discuss India’s complex regional heterogeneity, centre-state relationship, women’s participation in the labour force, the ultra-competitiveness of China, the difficulty—and perhaps the futility—of building an entire home-grown electronics supply chain, and the pull from emerging manufacturing powerhouses like Vietnam. Vasuki would like to see three key improvements ahead to convince him that manufacturing value added would rise substantially in the coming years—(i) a level playing field for businesses, with no perception of favouritism, (ii) stability of regulation, particularly tax laws, and (iii) political cohesion between the states and centre. He may not be impressed with Make in India so far, but Vasuki sees it as “an honourable aspiration to retain.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E133 - Dr. Jennifer Sciubba on Contextualising Demography 44:47

for 35 weeks siden44:47

44:47

Jennifer Sciubba, PhD, President and CEO of Population Reference Bureau, joins Kopi Time to discuss the science and policy dimensions of demographics. She begins by explaining the various ways of looking at population projections, pointing out that for most cases in recent decades, forecasts have ended up erring on the side of higher fertility. With fertility surprising on the downside and life expectancy rising, there is an overwhelming dynamic of rising median age the population around the world. Aging is pervasive and largely impervious to policy intervention. As people get wealthier and more educated, they tend to have less children, period. However, very low fertility rates likely reveal something not quite right with a society, from anxiety about cost of raising a child to a lack of societal purpose. Nonetheless, Dr. Sciubba is not pessimistic about a future with many more older people than today. The key is to strive for a society that ages without remaining ageist. Lower productivity and subdued economic growth may well be inevitable, but that doesn’t need to come with a burdensome social construct. Accepting the forthcoming aging dynamic, building a dignified and resilient society with provisions for health, shelter, and requisite skills is the way to go. You can watch Jennifer’s Ted talk for a shorter version of her views: The Truth About Human Population Decline | Jennifer D. Sciubba | TED - YouTube . See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E132 - GIC’s Prakash Kannan on Global Macro and Asset Allocation 53:33

for 36 weeks siden53:33

53:33

Prakash Kannan, Chief Economist and Director of the Economics & Investment Strategy department at GIC, returns to Kopi Time to talk about evolving macro developments and implications for asset allocation. We cover it all in this discussion, from Fed outlook to EM resiliency, global liquidity to China policy, yen carry trade to gold, and how a portfolio suitable for the past decade is unlikely to bear similar fruit going forward. Lots of insights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E131 - SE Asia 2024-34 with Charles Ormiston 1:09:08

for 38 weeks siden1:09:08

1:09:08

This conversation is about a flagship report on Southeast Asia’s outlook. Earlier this year, researchers from DBS, Angsana Council (backed by Monk’s Hill Ventures), and Bain & Company came together to query the drivers of regional economic performance in recent decades and the outlook for the coming decade. The work was done taking into account ongoing disruption from geopolitics, technology, and climate change. Charles Ormiston, founding partner of Bain and Company’s Southeast Asia business, and I talk about the motivation behind the report, our key findings, and strategy for the private and public sector in light of the report’s insights. Despite many headwinds, the next ten years offer plenty of exciting opportunities for the region. Hope that comes across through this engaging chat. Report link: outlook.angsanacouncil.org and Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34 (dbs.com.sg) See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E130 - Shekhar Aiyar on the Case for Globalisation 45:33

for 40 weeks siden45:33

45:33

Shekhar Aiyar, a Non-resident Fellow at Bruegel, on leave from the International Monetary Fund, joins Kopi Time to mount a substantive case for globalisation, a much-maligned word in some circles these days. Sharing his cutting edge research, Shekhar refers to considerable empirical evidence to establish the gains from trade for various parts of the global economy over the past half century. He then shares findings on the cost of reversing the course, a process termed as geoeconomic fragmentation. We discuss how that is measured, the estimated costs, and the implication for international monetary system and the global financial safety net. We then move on to another strand of Shekhar’s research, productivity spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment. Triangulating data from multiple sources, Shekhar and his co-authors have put together a large firm-level cross country panel dataset. Some of the findings from analysing that dataset are fascinating, from the modes of spillover to the differing results for emerging and industrial economies. This takes us to a discussion on industrial policies’ role in driving investment, and the various associated perils. Deep insights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E129 - James Crabtree on the Geopolitics of Elections 45:27

for 42 weeks siden45:27

45:27

James Crabtree, distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a senior fellow at the Asia Society, returns to Kopi Time to shed light on this year of momentous elections. We delve right into the US, first by taking stock of the ongoing drama around Trump, Biden, and Harris. We then consider the scenario of a Trump re-election and the likely outcomes around a Trump defeat. James has thoughtful views on what a Trump 2.0 would mean for Asia, as well as the impact on US domestic policies. We then talk about US strategy on Asia, particularly China, under both Democrats and Republicans, and how that would evolve after the elections. James then offers commentaries on three other major election outcomes this year, in the UK, France, and India. Elections come and go, but hard economic and social challenges remain. James underscores these points astutely. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E128 - Payments trends with Mastercard's David Mann 55:53

for 46 weeks siden55:53

55:53

We discuss global payment trends with David Mann, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Mastercard. From experiential travel to business events, there has been a dramatic change in consumer preferences since the pandemic, with the rise in cost of living playing a key factor. We talk about the patterns picked up from Mastercard’s extensive data on transactions around the world. From shopping trends in Japan to tourism in South East Asia and India, as well as new fintech platforms and payment rails, David has a lot to share. Link to Travel Trends 2024: https://www.mastercardservices.com/en/industries/travel/insights/travel-trends-2024-breaking-boundaries See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E127 - My commencement speech for Yale-NUS graduating class of 2024 8:11

for 48 weeks siden8:11

8:11

Mdm Kay Kuok, Chair of the Yale-NUS Governing Board Members of the Yale-NUS Governing Board Professor Aaron Thean, Deputy President (Academic Affairs) and Provost of NUS Professor Joanne Roberts, President of Yale-NUS College Families, Yale-NUS community, and Friends And dear graduates, Most of you were the class of 2020 in high school, your graduations disrupted by a once in a century pandemic. Today, as the Yale-NUS graduating class of 2024, your lives are mercifully not disrupted. It would however be tone-deaf to not recognize that many graduates in the Middle-East, Ukraine, or the US, won’t be enjoying a commencement like yours this year. This is a heavy realisation as we traverse through life. Moments of celebrations and triumph for many are invariably juxtaposed with sorrow, loss, and sadness elsewhere. At your highest highs and lowest lows, know that there are others with a different luck of the draw. Graduates, recognising that life’s peaks and valleys are inevitable can be liberating. It underscores the line “nothing lasts forever.” I think it also makes us less self-complacent, less territorial and possessive, more humble, and open to experiencing the next, the other. And perhaps, along those lines, more open to experiments. I want to explore the wisdom of experiments in the rest of this talk. Experiments can be scientific or social, public or personal. You can experiment with a business plan, a critical query, a new diet, a different workout, or just see if hearing someone out could give us an insight not feasible within our experiences. Consider hanging out with students from different majors an experiment. During my graduate school days, that very experiment led me to my life partner. Reach out to those from different religions, political persuasion, culture, or lifestyle, and see if their company and proximity make our lives richer and more joyous. If our mutual humanity can transcend our differences. These are experiments for the rest of your lives. And they will matter more as you delve into higher studies or jobs. If you’re a scientist, your vocation is largely about testing hypothesis through experiments, but surely that’s not where it ends. America is an experiment. Singapore is an experiment. Yale-NUS has been an experiment. Every new idea’s worth is tested through experiments. Is it possible to send humans to the moon and back? Let’s experiment, let’s try. Is it possible to have a thriving, multicultural, multiracial society? Let’s experiment. If it fails, try again. Some pursuits can follow the path of Thomas Edison, noisy and full of stumbles, but at the end, marked by glorious achievements. To paraphrase him, he never failed, he just successfully found the numerous ways that the experiment would not work. Some experiments can be spectacularly successful over a short period of time, thanks to luck, serendipity, or a stroke of genius. I wish you have those, but I also know that for the most you, that will not be the case. My hope is in fact that you leave this campus with the grit necessary to follow Edison’s path, and don’t shy away from your dreams at the first, second, or even third roadblock. Your exceptionally fortunate time at the Yale-NUS, in my view, has been an experiment of a lifetime. You could have gone to so many other places, but aren’t you gratified that you came here? Reflecting on President Roberts’s words, this place has hopefully instilled in you the patience, perseverance, and sense of community critically needed to make a difference. This beautiful campus, these dedicated and brilliant faculty, and these amazing facilities have nourished your minds over the past four years. That experiment of liberal arts in the heart of Singapore has been a resounding success. You made that happen. The legacy of this institution will never fade. So, let’s embrace uncertainty, let’s stand up against the fear of failure, let’s move forward, secure in the conviction that your time here has provided you with the values and intellectual mettle to take on the world. We can write down an endless list of woes that afflict our planet; let them be your problems to solve. With your curiosity, empathy, and knowledge, let the experiments begin. Congratulations Class of 2024! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E126 : Gen AI with Microsoft's Zia Zaman 47:00

for 49 weeks siden47:00

47:00

We hear about the subject of the moment from Microsoft’s Asia head of business development, Zia Zaman. We begin with the question if the world has been transformed in a comparable manner in the past year and a half as the smartphone and Appstore revolution achieved during 2007/08. Zia argues the transformation has been similar in influencing corporate strategy and productivity enhancement potential. We discuss the unparalleled cost and investment associated with operationalising and commercialising Large Language Models. Zia walks us through multiple stages of tech introduction, adoption, and value creation, with most still in the pipeline for GenAI. We talk about the compute needs and carbon footprint of running GenAI models, and the role of regulation in balancing business and public interests. Finally, Zia talks about the depth and breadth of the relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft. Fascinating insights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E125 : China from a US business perspective with Mitchell Presnick 57:38

for 50 weeks siden57:38

57:38

Mitchell Presnick, a visiting fellow of practice at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, joins Kopi Time to bring much needed pragmatism to the China-US discourse. Mitch, researching the future of US- China commercial relations in the post-engagement era, is no China apologist. But his decades of doing business in China have given him a realistic view on where engagement and symbiosis make sense. We discuss Mich’s days building a business in China in the 1990s, the playbook he suggests to American businesses, and his take on US policy. Stressing that “de-risking does not mean decoupling,” Mitch wants the two nations to attain positive sum outcomes. May his views get amplified. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E124 : Indonesia outlook with Reformasi's Kevin O'Rourke 43:41

for 50 weeks siden43:41

43:41

Recorded in Jakarta, Kopi Time delves into Indonesia’s elections, domestic and foreign policy, investment environment, and economy with Kevin O'Rourke, Principle, PT Reformasi Information Services. Kevin’s team has provided independent political risk consultancy for many years, and he demonstrates his deep insights in this far-reaching conversation. We begin with the recently concluded elections, and what one can expect from President Prabowo’s administration, from balancing geopolitics to the nation’s aspiration to climb to a much higher level of income, prosperity, and welfare. Kevin provides sober-eyed assessment on the strategies announced so far. We discuss Indonesia’s democratic process, industrial policy, populist measures, fossil fuel industry, green transition potential, and the legacy of outgoing President Jokowi. Kevin’s take on Indonesia is by no means negative, but certainly cautious and couched with concerns informed by his scrutiny of this country’s ups and downs over two decades. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E123 - Control Risks’ Nicolas Reys on Cybersecurity 44:13

for 52 weeks siden44:13

44:13

Today’s episode subject is in response to popular demand. Whether at work or at home, concerns on cybersecurity are elevated to say the least. Nicolas Reys, Partner leading Control Risks’ Digital Risks Americas and Global Threat Intelligence practices, begins by going the three kinds of cyberthreats out there—state sponsored, ransomware, and “hactivism.” We then talk about the impact of recent geopolitical developments on the cybersecurity environment. Singapore’s population and firms continue to face cyberattacks, from scams to phishing, but Nic sees substantial awareness and policy guardrails available to mitigate risks here. We talk about frontier tech like GenAI and quantum computing, and their potential disrupting impact on cybersecurity. We end with Nic laying out the best practice corporate strategies to manage digital risks. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E122 - Development Multilateralism with Atlantic Council’s Martin Mühleisen 1:03:43

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1:03:43

Martin Mühleisen, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the state of multilateralism. He sees the recent IMF meetings marked by modest progress in securing greater funding for development and climate change, but much more remains to be done to give developing nations their requisite voice in global bodies. On issues such as supply chain resiliency and domestic market protection, nations around the world are undertaking a variety of interventions, which may be understandable given the pandemic shock and geopolitics. Yet, they create risks for inflation, and add layers of inefficiency and distortion. Martin weighs in on US fiscal, Japan’s monetary policy, and Europe’s difficulties with the war in Ukraine and China-US friction. We round up the discussion with how to keep multilateral institutions like the IMF maintain their relevance in this multipolar world. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time 121 - IMF meetings takeaways with PwC's Dr. Alexis Crow 41:39

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41:39

We catch up in Washington DC with Dr. Alexis Crow, lead, Global Geopolitical Investing Practice, pwc. Recorded on the last day of the IMF-World Bank 2024 spring meetings, we go over the key takeaways from our interactions with policy makers and analysts. From a mild upgrade in global growth forecasts to taking stock of the scarring of the pandemic, there was a sense of cautious optimism during the meetings. Ongoing geopolitical strife of course remained a shadow, and concerns were expressed on the impact of lingering high interest rates on various economies and markets. China-US tussle over economic overcapacity and industrial policy looks likely to intensify, although there has been a welcome rise in engagement between the world’s two largest economies. We also discuss the latest deliberations on AI, climate change, and sticky inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E120 - Henny Sender on China, Hong Kong, and India 57:37

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57:37

Henny Sender, after several decades of writing on international finance for the Finance Times and Wall Street Journal, presently runs Apsara Advisory, a New York-based consultancy. She joins Kopi Time to talk about her sense of the challenges facing the Chinese economy, especially the weakness in consumer sentiment. While recognising the wisdom behind self-reliance and trade openness, Henny flags several areas of concern, including property and stock market woes, as well as regulatory overhang. On Hong Kong, where she has lived for many years, Henny is blunt in her assessment. She sees substantial room available for the public sector to address affordable housing, an issue that is at the heart of the city’s competitiveness. On India, Henny sees a welcome rise in aspiration and optimism. She would however like to see more efforts to scale up manufacturing, address climate risks, and reduce protectionism for local industries. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E119 - Angela Mancini on Geopolitics and Business Risks 1:00:30

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1:00:30

Angela Mancini, Partner and Head of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis practice for Asia Pacific at Control Risks, returns to Kopi Time after four years. The issues haven’t changed that much in the interim—we talk about Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore’s elections and economic prospects, state of China-US friction in the context of business risks, and the domestic dynamics at play in the US. Angela provides astute insights and some prognostications as we cover an extensive ground, including the likely outcome of the US Presidential race. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E118: Bert Hofman on China’s NPC, deflation, trade/tech war, industrial policy 51:51

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51:51

Bert Hofman, adjunct Professor at the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to comment on the National People’s Congress of China and the direction of policy in the coming years. We also talk about the property sector crisis, ways to revive business and consumer confidence, deflation risks, green transition, trade and tech war, and industrial policy. Bert also has interesting insights on the preference of the Chinese leadership in dealing with a Biden or Trump presidency. Worth a listen. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E117 - Munib Madni on the Gigaton Coalition to Decarbonize 42:53

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42:53

We welcome back Munib Madni, CEO of Singapore-based Panarchy Partners, a fund management company with responsible investing at its core. In this chat, Munib talks about latest developments and trends in the world of climate impact investing, while pointing out a gap in the current scene. Munib sees many listed equity companies setting laudable goals to reduce emission, but lacking the “how" about achieving those goals. This is where the newly established Gigaton Coalition comes in. It is an investor-investee led expert management platform for decarbonization solutions. As the name suggests, it aims to deliver at least 1 gigaton of cumulus emissions savings over the next decade from publicly listed companies in Asia Pacific. We discuss how the coalition would work, what would motivate institutional investors and companies to join it, and where Munib sees the initiative standing at the end of 2025. This is real work for real change. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E116 - Caesar Sengupta on the present and future of e-payments and investment 49:03

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49:03

We explore the present state of digital payments, their impact and potential, and tech-enabled investment platforms with Caeser Sengupta, CEO and co-founder of Arta Finance. Previously, Caeser spent a number of years at Google as VP & GM of Payments & the Next Billion Users initiative. In this podcast, we begin by discussing the economic and social welfare benefits derived from the digital payments revolution of the past decade. Caeser walks us through the fundamental changes in the way business and commerce are conducted in Brazil, China, India, and elsewhere, thanks to the development in mobile payments and near-instantaneous settlements. We talk about the broader ecosystem, including the potential of super apps, safety/security, role of regulators, central bank digital money, and of course, crypto/blockchain. We then shift to Caeser’s ongoing foray into creating a platform for wealth management, with enhanced customer experience and capabilities. The intersection of digital literacy and financial literacy has still plenty of room for disruption and value creation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E115 - Vandana Hari on Energy Market Outlook and Risks 50:00

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50:00

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of intelligence on energy markets, returns to Kopi Time. She was with us in the early days of the podcast, when WTI futures was in negative territory, and then returned around the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Today, again, energy markets have no shortage of drama. Vandana begins by addressing various scenarios over the brewing tensions in the Red Sea, especially for shipping and oil price risk premium. She also details the perverse dynamics around Russia’s energy supplies and various unintended consequences. Beyond geopolitics, she looks at the rather underwhelming supply-demand fundamentals characterising energy markets. We then talk about the future of OPEC+, state of US Shale sector, and the medium term demand for fossil fuels against green transition. Vanda offers an astute blend of industry insights and the complex realities in place. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E114 - US markets with Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar 55:31

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55:31

We do a US market wrap-up for 2023 and outlook for 2024 with our favourite strategist, Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar. No stranger to Kopi Time, Sri is blunt and prescient in his views across asset classes, fiscal and monetary policies, politics, economic growth, and inflation. We discuss the various prevalent and potential sources of market volatility, direction of the US Fed and treasury, path for inflation, rate cuts, and eventual QE next year, and the outlook for credit markets. Sri worries about the health of the US bank and nonbank financial system as the economy slows. He is also quite clear about the distinction the markets make about US assets and US policy. In most countries, outlook for one determines the outlook for the other. But the US remains blessed with certain superpower and mega-market size privileges that allow it to avoid some of these issues, at least in the near term. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E113 - World Bank’s S Asia Chief Economist Franziska Ohnsorge on the Region’s Outlook 43:51

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43:51

South Asia has pockets of strong growth (Bangladesh and India), pockets of balance of payments difficulties (Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), and an across the board underwhelming foreign investment picture. Dr. Franziska Ohnsorge, South Asia Chief Economist of the World Bank, ties these multiple threads from her vantage point. We discuss risks and manifestations of currency crisis in parts of South Asia and the assorted fiscal stress points. The region remains characterised by remittance from the diaspora, which tends to create an element of overheating in consumption. The region also collects very low taxes, without which the capacity of spend on growth critical areas remains limited. The rules around fiscal responsibility are also weak by international comparison. We then talk about two matters related to energy transition in South Asia. First is a study on ways to improve firm level productivity through introduction of energy saving practices, and the second is one on the encouraging returns from green jobs. We conclude by talking about the need for the region to become more trade friendly; there is no better way to have a competitive, productive, and upward trending economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E112 - Charles Ormiston on making the most of out of geopolitics 55:36

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55:36

This is a thoughtful discussion on maximising a company or economy’s growth potential while navigating geopolitical constraints. Charles Ormiston digs deep on Asia in this podcast. Charles, chair of the Angsana Council, a Singapore-based think tank focused on the growth potential of Southeast Asia, and former head of Bain Southeast Asia, argues that China/UK rivalry could force both nations to get out of their comfort zones and become more self-reliant, which in turn could help the rest of the world. Charles is not rosy-eyed about the current state of affairs, but his key insight on China’s progress is that it is the result of intense competition between provinces and businesses, fuelling innovation. At a broader level, he sees great power rivalry forcing further innovation on both sides. The conversation then veers toward China’s seismic push toward green transition and its various positive spillovers to the region. Charles walks us through Vietnam, the Philippines, and Singapore, offering cogent insights on their very different development models and prospects. We need to have Charles back for the rest of Southeast Asia. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E111 - Dirk and Lelya Eichelberger on Sustainable Fishing and its Offshoots 47:13

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47:13

This couple is walking the talk on marine sustainability. Dirk Eichelberger is the CEO of Singapore Aquaculture Technologies; in other words, he runs a fish farm right here in Singapore. Lelya Eichelberger is launching Alghemy, a skincare product range that offers a proprietary ingredient while emphasizing clean, green, and blue beauty. We talk about the challenges and rewards of their entrepreneurial journeys, and how their goals and Singapore’s imperatives converge. Dirk walks us through the financial, ethical, and ESG factors that drive his fish farm, while Lelya talks about health-related scientific advances with sustainability considerations at the core. As Dirk points out, from securing partnership with the government and other interested parties, to scaling up, as well as commercialising the knowhow through a franchise model, there are many things one can do to increase the production and distribution of sustainable products. The roadmap is there. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E110 - Notes from Marrakech - Polycrisis and Resilience 9:26

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9:26

Global central bank heads and finance ministers gathered over the past week in Marrakech, Morocco for the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group. The meetings’ overarching theme was an uneven global recovery from a multitude of shocks, ranging from pandemic to wars, prices to interest rates. There was also a cautiously constructive view that both the public sector and markets have proven to be more agile than feared to deal with frequently occurring shocks. There was acceptance that a multitude of shocks have be confronted simultaneously. Post-pandemic scarring, wars, inflation, interest rate spikes, climate change, all need to be dealt with agility. Global resource base and tools to deal with polycrisis are being expanded. Climate change related support measures are still inadequate. Between-and-within country income gaps are widening due to the shocks and varying policy responses. Asia is slowing, but still making up about two-thirds of global growth. arts of Asia may benefit from geoeconomic fragmentation, but it’s a net loss for the world. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E109 - Dr. Tony Annett on economics and Catholicism 41:37

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41:37

This is an atypical episode—the first time in Kopi Time we discuss the intersection of faith and economics. Dr. Tony Annett, a Visiting Scholar at the Center for Sustainable Development, Columbia University, and author of “Cathonomics: How Catholic Tradition Can Create a More Just Economy,” insists on moral principles as foundations of economics and finance. In this fascinating conversation, we explore the roots of our modern values and principles, going to back old scriptures and subsequent faith-based approaches. Dr. Annett questions the narrow rational actor approach of neoclassical economics, arguing that without concerns for a common good and social responsibility, solutions to inequality, climate change, and monopolistic practices will remain unattainable. Over the past couple of centuries, technological progress and organisational developments have led to astonishing material prosperity, but have we achieved meaningful progress? The call remains for a more sustainable and inclusive world; whether one has faith or not, that imperative is critical. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E108 - Chris Miller on Chip War 47:09

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47:09

This podcast will be an indispensable resource for those have not read Chip War by Chris Miller, Professor at Tufts University. Chris explains, both in his award-winning book and in this conversation, the central role played by computer chips in today’s economy, society, and military. More critically, he points out various single nodes of vulnerability in the production process of these immensely complex products. Naturally, the conversation then veers toward China’s attempts to reach self-sufficiency in advanced tech, the myriad of sanctions getting in the way, and the various unexpected knock-on effects. Those who have read Chip War already will also find a lot in this podcast, as we discuss the latest products by Huawei, use of military tech in the Ukraine war, how Russia is managing its tech stack despite sanctions, and the state of advanced tech manufacturing the East Asia. Many don’t know that Chris’s core expertise includes Soviet history and modern Russia, so we conclude with his prognosis of the war in Ukraine and the path toward resolution. This was a gem of a chat. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time 107 - Kishore Mahbubani on the Asian century versus the American century 53:22

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53:22

Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to give his take on China-US relationship, the war in Ukraine and its many facets, and where Asean and India stand in all this. The ever erudite former career diplomat pulls no punches, pointing out poor national strategies, short-term oriented decision making, and hypocrisy on foreign and economic policy across industrialized economies. He worries about US presidential elections next year, although he sees little course correction on US policy toward China, regardless of the outcome. The conflict in Ukraine, however, could be profoundly affected by the US election outcomes. Mr Mahbubani also weighs in on China’s geo-strategic response so far, room for cooperation on climate change, the expansion of Brics, and the outlook for Aaean. We end with a a prognosis on Singapore. The transcript of this chat will be worth saving. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E106 - Prof Aurobindo Ghosh on inflation expectations and cost of living in Singapore 50:21

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50:21

Aurobindo Ghosh, Assistant Professor of Finance at the Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University, joins Kopi Time to talk about his longstanding research on inflation expectations and cost of living. He explains the decade-plus work, done in conjunction with the Monetary Authority of Singapore and DBS Bank, to gauge inflation expectations among Singapore’s residents. Over the long term, survey results have held steady, reflecting well anchored inflation expectations, but they have been volatile in recent years, in line with global developments. How is the survey conducted; what methodological challenges do they throw up; what are the key insights from all these years’ of surveys; is there a difference between inflation expectations and cost of living perceptions? What are the policy implications? Prof Ghosh addresses all this and more on this topic of the moment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E105 - Eswar Prasad on the future of money 51:47

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51:47

Eswar Prasad, Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell University, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the USD, China, cryptos, and CBDCs. We go over the state of the global financial system, the legacy of USD weaponisation, innovation in fintech, the state of cryptos, the potential of central bank digital currencies. Eswar’s book, The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution is Transforming Currencies and Finance, offers a great sweep of the ongoing revolution in money and finance. This podcast is a teaser for his deep work. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E104 - Wellington’s Santiago Millán, on China’s complexities 52:03

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52:03

Santiago Millán, Macro Strategist at Wellington Management, one of the largest asset managers in the world, joins Kopi Time to talk about China. Whether it is the macro outlook, space for further stimulus, policy stance, state of financial markets, regulatory framework, great power rivalry, tech war, green transition, or the overall investment thesis on the country, Santiago has nuanced insights to offer. His key point is to appreciate the complexities of a large, consequential, and rapidly evolving economy and society like China. Broad-brushed analysis almost always gets it wrong; we need to think deeply when it comes to China’s medium term direction, especially with respect to its undeniable role in global trade, technology, and movement of capital. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E103 - Helge Muenkel on climate finance 43:54

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43:54

Helge Muenkel, Chief Sustainability Officer at DBS, responsible for developing the bank’s overarching sustainability framework, joins Kopi Time. We begin by talking about current state of climate finance, the magnitude of funding needed to carry out meaningful green transition, and the various source of funding in the pipeline. Helge walks us through the key pillars of climate finance, including bonds, blended finance, grants, and carbon credits. We talk about the thorny issue of just transition, along with the role of governments and corporates in this journey. We then dive into banks’ role in coal phase-out, an enormously complex issue. We end by considering the encouraging climate mitigation and finance related developments in the US, Europe, China, and Singapore. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E102 - Mustafa Chowdhury on why rates will remain higher for longer 39:01

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39:01

Mustafa Chowdhury, who has held senior positions at Voya Investments, Deutsche Bank, Bear Stearns and Freddie Mac, brings his deep fixed income expertise to Kopi Time. We start with his takeaways from the debt ceiling drama, which Mustafa argues left President Biden the winner. He however remains unconvinced that a meaningful debt consolidation is likely in the coming years, given the ballooning expenditure needs ahead. He then offers his insights on the information content embedded in the deeply inverted yield curve, weighing on recession probability versus fixed income strategy of institutional investors. Mustafa believes that market pricing on inflation expectations is too sanguine, and a better gauge is consumer survey based expectation measures. Building on that, he expects sticky inflation and a “higher for longer” narrative for interest rates. Having said that, he is not uniformly bearish US fixed income, pointing out pockets of value in various products and strategies. Mustafa also weighs in on financial stability, systemwide liquidity, relative value, and portfolio allocation. Can’t-miss insights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E101 - Reviewing our Top-10 Episodes 15:54

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15:54

This series began right before the 2020 global pandemic, and at that time the idea was to record chats with thinkers I meet during my travels. I really doubt if I’d have a hundred episodes under that model of operation. But once the pandemic broke out, remote recording with guests all over the world became acceptable, and away we went. Now 100 episodes is a lot, and there have some really memorable ones. We have covered our bread and butter, global macro and markets, in 41 episodes, but we have gone way beyond that as well. Given the times we live in, we have had a dozen episodes on geopolitics, eight on tech and fintech, and a dozen on climate change, an issue close to my heart. Beyond that, we have covered banking, energy, metals, crypto, financial inclusion, health, science and innovation, gender, and wealth management. Quite the breadth, never a dull moment! In this episode, we review the top-10 most downloaded and viewed episodes on Kopi Time. The number 1 in this ranking, in fact, has over 175k views and nearly 900 comments on youtube! Thanks to our listeners for their support and kind encouragement for this series. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E100 - Raghuram Rajan on fault lines in global finance and economy 46:06

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46:06

Kopi Time hits 100 episodes! Raghuram Rajan, Professor at the University of Chicago, former Governor, Reserve Bank of India (2013-16), former IMF Chief Economist (2003-06), returns to our podcast to talk about the risks building up in global finance and economy. We begin with duration mismatch risks causing a rise in vulnerability among banks and nonbank financial institutions in the US. Is this an inevitable result of the exceptional monetary accommodation of the past decade and a half, followed by some tightening? Why haven’t post-GFC regulations stemmed such risks from materialising? What are the indicators to watch going forward, and what can policy makers do at this point? What about the entire edifice of inflation targeting, and where do emerging market economies fit into all this? While this discussion focuses largely on financial sector stress and central banking, Professor Rajan also weighs in on the issue of sovereign debt restructuring that is badly needed for a number of developing countries, with critical roles to be played by creditor nations and multilateral organisations. Very few thinkers have been as prescient as Raghuram Rajan in capturing the fault lines in modern finance; it was a privilege to have him on the show in such momentous times. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E099 - Professor Bernard Haykel on the Middle East, China, US 45:25

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45:25

Dr. Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University and Director, Institute for Transregional Study of the Contemporary Middle East, returns to Kopi Time. Recorded in New York City on April 15, the discussion begins with the war in Ukraine and the Middle East’s complex relationship with Russia. Prof Haykel then elaborates on China’s role in the region, especially the recent mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Ongoing strife in Israel is yet again adding tension to the region; Prof Haykel sheds light on the difficulty this poses to the region’s leaders. We go over Opec’s recent decision to cut production, which appears to be divergent from US interests. The region clearly has a lot going on as it manoeuvres through domestic development imperatives and brewing great power rivalry. Prof Haykel also gives a preview of his forthcoming book on contemporary changes in Saudi Arabia, which we’re sure will be a must-read. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E098 - Prem Bhatia on shifting sands in the tech start-up scene 52:58

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52:58

Prem Bhatia, co-founder of Graas, a tech solution provider for e-commerce, joins Kopi Time to talk about the direction of data driven e-commerce and issues facing start-ups at the current macro backdrop. He draws on his decades-long experience as an entrepreneur and investor to make the case for data and artificial intelligence-driven solutions in the fragmented ecommerce markets in India and South-East Asia. He recognises the dark clouds looming as market correction and banking sector difficulties translate into substantially higher cost of early stage capital. Consequently, growth above all has been replaced by a welcome focus on profitable growth. At the same time, Prem remains encouraged by the wide range of promising ideas and solutions percolating around the region. He is keen to press the idea that innovation requires capital looking for both value and growth. Current selloff and higher cost of capital may well differentiate and lift up some of the best companies in the region. He considers the convergence of e-commerce and advertisement, catalysed by data analytics, as a major, consequential trend. We then discuss the present and future of data privacy, regulation, Tik Tok, and generative/predictive AI. Final word: “the ability to increase productivity is what AI delivers... AI will kill process managers by automating process management.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E097 - Chatib Basri on Indonesia 50:34

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50:34

I sat down with former Finance Minister of Indonesia, Chatib Basri, at the DBS Indonesia Asian Insights Forum 2023, held on March 15. During the conversation, Mr. Basri provided a brief presentation about the outlook for Indonesia in the context of global macroeconomic developments. He explained the Indonesian economy’s middle path, neither high- nor low-single digit growth, by taking into account resilient domestic demand and still-positive commodity exports outlook. Consequently, when there are global headwinds, Indonesia tends to outperform due to its low-beta nature. The flipside is during a global upswing, Indonesia tends to underperform. On climate change and green financing, Mr. Basri underscored the daunting challenges ahead, along with the massive domestic/external and private/public/multilateral financing needed. Removing fossil fuel subsidy is key, despite the political impediments. He then expanded on the possible opportunities for regional trade and manufacturing around China-US tension. Asean has to be united in setting rules for trade or commerce while dealing with China-US tension. We then have a back and forth on the investment environment, need for a balance between industrial policy and private sector incentives, the importance of the services sector, e-commerce, techno-nationalism, 2024 elections and the economic impact of campaign finance, strength of Indonesia’s financial system in light of global market selloff, and the role of regulatory policy to deal with that. Final word from Mr. Basri: “Investing in Indonesia is very dangerous, because it is very addictive.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E096 - TIGER 21’s Greg Wells on a network for the ultra-wealthy 46:32

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46:32

Greg Wells, Chief Operating Officer of TIGER 21, a peer membership organisation for high-net-worth wealth individuals, joins Kopi Time. He provides an overview of this collective (minimum member wealth of USD100mn), in which members learn from one-another the risks and opportunities worldwide. An internally transparent and yet confidential organisational structure brings together 1200+ wealth creators for networking and learning. We then explore the genesis of TIGER 21 and its area of operation. Greg walks us through the membership process, the commitments members make, what one gets and contributes in the organisation, and the “portfolio defense” approach. Underlying the nitty gritty of wealth preservation and legacy planning is the desire to make a mark, to grow, and to belong in a community. Rather universal. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E095 - World Gold Council’s Shaokai Fan on the evolving nature of the demand and supply of gold 32:37

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32:37

Shaokai Fan returns to Kopi Time to talk about gold’s recent journey through inflation spike, war in Ukraine, weaponization of the USD, monetary policy tightening, and soaring interest rates. We talk about supply conditions, ongoing reforms to add greater transparency and sustainability, and the structure of the gold market. Shaokai then sheds light on the evolving nature of gold demand, both cyclical, as China and India come out of the pandemic, and structural, as individuals and financial institutions consider gold as a geopolitical hedge. Immensely fascinating. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E094: IMF’s Asia head Krishna Srinivasan on the region’s outlook 54:27

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54:27

Dr. Krishna Srinivasan, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, International Monetary Fund, breaks down the prospects for the region. We begin by talking about the coverage of the department, which is 37 countries, making up of half the world’s population. We then dive into the 2023 balance of risks, which the IMF sees still tilted to the downside, but with a welcome decline in adverse risks. On the upside, Krishna expresses optimism about post-pandemic re-opening helping demand, while headline inflation softens at a pace faster than previously envisaged. On the downside, concerns remain about Russia’s war in Ukraine, tighter global financing costs, various distortions posed by forces of deglobalisation, and lingering uncertainties around inflation. We then do a tour of Asia, starting with the two countries that are under IMF programs, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Krishna explains that state of macroeconomic affairs and the lending facilities being deployed in both cases. In this context, he also elaborates on the IMF’s new Resilience and Sustainability Trust. After this, we take on, one by one, the challenges and promises of Japan, China, India, Indonesia, and Singapore. We cover it all--inflation, debt, monetary policy, property markets, corporate governance, human capital, and deglobalisation. A thorough macro health-check of Asia. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E093 - China Outlook with Bert Hofman 1:07:29

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1:07:29

Bert Hofman, Director of the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore and former World Bank Country Director for China (2014-19), provides a sweeping overview of China’s outlook and key risks ahead. We begin with several nuances to the evolution of China’s zero-Covid policy and economic policies in the near term. Bert then offers insights into the property sector, and fiscal-structural policies that are likely to be deployed to deal its debt overhang. In his professional role, Bert devotes considerable time analysing China’s fiscal position and reforms outlook; here he walks us through tax reforms and spending imperatives that are in the pipeline. We then move on to tech sector regulation, green transition policies and strategies, and the legacy of the Belt and Road initiative. We end our wide ranging conversation with some reflections on the direction and unintended consequences of the rivalry between China and the US. A must-listen for China observers. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E092: Balyasny’s Archana Parekh on global market opportunities in 2023 44:04

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44:04

Welcome to 2023, dear Kopi Time followers! We kick off the new year with a chat on markets with seasoned trader and strategist, Archana Parekh, head of Asia Equities, ex-Japan, Balyasny Asset Management. We begin the discussion on the inevitability of market selloff in 2022, dragged by rates increases and lofty valuations. Archana does not think the highly correlated selloff across asset classes reflected much more than the fact that during the run-up in recent years, all asset classes had rallied with high correlation as well. We then talk about her broadly constructive outlook for equities in 2023, around Fed policy pause, China re-opening, and a fairly stable energy market. Yet, Archana does not see a major bull market ahead, given the numerous macro, geopolitical, and regulatory uncertainties in place. We then drill down to US tech, China tech, and Japan tech, each with their potential upside and idiosyncratic risks. We touch on frontier technologies and innovations, going over opportunities around them. Archana then weighs in on the age-old question of active versus passive investing, pointing out that one approach does not fill all investors. We conclude by talking about women in finance, something she supports passionately. Her inclination to look at opportunities calmly and constructively, even as big picture challenges mount, is heartening. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E091 - Dr Nouriel Roubini on MegaThreats 43:35

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43:35

Caution: You may need a strong cup of Kopi after listening to our year-ending podcast with Dr. Nouriel Roubini, an economist and market analyst, who famously called the severity of the sub-prime crisis back in 2008 and has been warning about the fragility of the crypto ecosystem in recent years. But it is essential listening, as a recent review of his book, MegaThreats, points out: “Roubini’s warnings may be alarmingly scary, but they are also disturbingly plausible” (John Thornhill, Financial Times). We begin with his sobering assessment of the near term outlook, with recession risks rising in the UK and Europe, with the US not far behind, along with China with its struggles to reopen the economy. Nouriel does not see inflation easing sufficiently in the near term, and envisages an era of “great stagflation” in the coming years. His rationale for structurally higher inflation is wide ranging, from the impact of deglobalisation to aging, along with green transition and populism. He also sees a looming debt crisis like no other, with the US, Europe, and China already overleveraged, teetering on the brink of cascading defaults and financial market contagion. He fears fiscal and monetary policy errors, great power rivalry, pandemic, climate change, cyber warfare, and financial instability holding back growth and prosperity in the coming decades, unless technological advances and welfare enhancing policies offset those headwinds. Nouriel worries that the period of global prosperity enjoyed since the end of the second world war is coming to an end; let’s hope he is wrong, but let’s also heed his warnings. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E090 - Dr. Torbjörn Becker on Ukraine-Russia 36:44

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36:44

Dr. Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, joins Kopi Time to discuss the economic dimensions of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. We begin by going over Ukraine’s economic size and structure, followed by the depth of the economic and societal damage inflicted by this conflict. We then talk about the massive short- and medium-term funding needs for Ukraine’s sustainability and rebuilding. Dr. Becker’s institute has been exploring the various dimensions of funding Ukraine, from the appropriate distribution channels to governance concerns; he elaborates on them. We move on to the impact of sanctions and potential oil price cap on Russia. We then go over the economics of sanction and the state of Europe’s energy supply and policy response for this winter. As the most significant global security event of 2022, it is fitting that we conclude with Dr. Becker’s outlook for this conflict in 2023. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E089 - Stuart Haber, Co-Inventor of Blockchain, on its Genesis and Current State 31:09

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31:09

This podcast was recorded in early November, on the sidelines of the Singapore Fintech Festival 2022. It was fitting in the spirit of the event to have Stuart Haber join Kopi Time. Dr Haber, along with Scott Stornetta, co-invented the blockchain technique in 1990, which was later adopted by Satoshi Nakamoto as the basic mechanism for data integrity in Bitcoin. We begin the conversation travelling back over three decades, to understand the problem and motivation that drove Haber and Stornetta toward the blockchain. It is clear even as young coders and crypographers, their ambition was high and their goal was to have transformative and lasting impact on the way civilisation’s records are stored. We then talk about the seminal moment in 2008, when the Satoshi white paper came out, and Dr Haber’s take on it then (and now). We tackle the questions of a crypto bubble, Bitcoin’s adverse environmental impact (and possible solutions around it), proliferation of tech solutions looking for a problem, and the applications that appeal to him. Dr. Haber talks about his current research, and takes on my question on the potential impact of quantum computing on cryptograhy-based record authentication. A brilliant mind with outstanding insights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E088 - Dr. Lynn Loo on Decarbonising International Shipping 53:37

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53:37

Dr. Lynn Loo, Professor in Engineering at Princeton University and head of Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation (GCMD) in Singapore, joins Kopi Time to talk about international shipping’s transition to a low-/zero-carbon future. Shipping accounts for 90% of global trade and is the sixth largest carbon emitter as a sector, hence the stakes are high. Dr Loo talks about the targets in place at the international level, as well as the current and frontier technologies that can take us toward zero-emission shipping in the long-term. We then move on to the issue carbon capture, which is tantalising in potential, but also comes with thorny issues like cost, storage, and disposal. We discuss the role of carbon taxes and broader regulations in facilitating green transition, some of the promising pilots and studies undertaken by GCMD (Biofuel, ammonia bunkering, retrofit solutions, and wind-assisted propulsion). We end with Dr. Loo’s pragmatic vision of a multi-fuel future. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E087 - Notes from IMF meetings in Washington 10:17

for 3 years siden10:17

10:17

This 10-minute commentary summarises my key impressions from the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC. Held amid the background of rising interest rates, currency market volatility, developing country debt distress, great power rivalry, war in Ukraine, and risk of financial instability, the mood was largely grim during the meetings. Silver linings include relative resiliency of large emerging market economies, strong push for infrastructure investment, and an energised climate change agenda. But above all, it was about the US. The US society may have internal chasms, and some of its political institutions and processes may have weakened in recent years, but as far as the rest of the world is concerned, US monetary and financial market policy, US demand, US industrial policy, and US sanctions loom above just about all other considerations. To me, US assertiveness characterised these meetings. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E086 - OMFIF’s David Marsh on the Sterling crisis and UK 46:15

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46:15

David Marsh, Chairperson of Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) joins Kopi Time to go over the UK’s recent bout with extraordinary currency and rates volatility. Mincing no words, David provides a strong critique of the policy choices and communications that have pushed the UK economy on weak footing, leaving it vulnerable to financial stability risks. We talk about past cases of devaluation (especially the 1992 Sterling crisis that David has written about extensively) and consider the parallels and lessons. We then discuss the myriad of risks hovering over Europe, from war to energy insecurity to debt overhang among the peripheral economies. David has a sobering outlook for the global economy, with recession looming and global coordination largely absent. Not many silver linings, other than lessons learnt. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E085 - Ila Patnaik on India’s Economy and the Politics of Welfare Delivery 52:29

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52:29

Ila Patnaik, Chief Economist, Aditya Birla Group, joins Kopi Time to discuss a number of pertinent aspects of India’s economy. We talk about the current macro situation in the face of rising interest rates and tensions in the currency market. We then move on to India’s somewhat restrained policy response during the pandemic, and the expedited embrace of digital payments and service delivery. Ila is a realist on the frictional cost of economic formalisation, recognising that there will be losers. The challenge then becomes to ensure a minimal safety net for those being left behind. She is optimistic about the investment outlook but also cautious about absorptive capacity. From her perspective, 3-4% of GDP worth of FDI is fine, but more than that would be problematic to manage. We then discuss the state of financial sector reform, something Ila has been involved with for over a decade. We move on to discuss Ila’s book, co-written with union minister Bhupender Yadav, The Rise of the BJP: The Making of the World's Largest Political Party, which examines the politics of welfare payments. Ila points out the benefits that come from corruption-free, efficient social service delivery and frequent social audits, which is a valuable lesson for modern democratic parties. We end with Ila’s vision for India, which is highly promising to her due to a massive demographic advantage. This key to maintain a well-educated, healthy, and aspirational population. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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DBS Kopi Time E084 - The Woke Salaryman on Financial Literacy 58:37

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58:37

Thewokesalaryman handle on Instagram has over 357k followers; on Telegram, it has nearly 37k subscribers. It is a highly popular social media platform on financial literacy, using original, witty cartoons to impart critical life lessons on career building, savings, investment, and just living worthy lives. He Ruiming and Goh Wei Choon, the creators, join Kopi Time to share their motivation, content generating process, the feedback loop between posting and follower response, their financial model, and the way forward. With a strong sense of the pulse of Singapore’s Gen Z population and beyond, Ruiming and Wei Choon are making truly valuable contribution to the overall well-being of the society. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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DBS Kopi Time E083 - Munib Madni on Climate Investing 58:28

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58:28

Munib Madni, CEO of Singapore-based Panarchy Partners, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the fast growing world of climate investing. We go over the realities of climate change hitting home, numerous changes in the regulatory environment globally, and the deepening zeitgeist around investments in the context of climate mitigation. We then get into the thorny issue of how to deal with climate sceptics, including the dialogue around just transition. Munib then looks at various market failures, issues related to the term ESG and carbon pricing, Asia’s role in climate change and related investments, and financial returns coming from decarbonisation. Tons of inspirational takeaways for those feeling gloomy about our planet’s future. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E082 - Carin Smaller on Global Food Security 46:38

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46:38

Carin Smaller, Executive Director of the Shamba Centre for Food & Climate, joins Kopi Time to talk about global food security. As per the United Nations, after three decades of steady decline, the number of people who suffer from hunger began to increase again in 2015. Current estimates show that nearly 690 million people are hungry, or 8.9 percent of the world population. Compounding this trend is the high frequency incidences of natural disasters, pandemics, and wars that are pushing millions more into hunger. If recent trends continue, the number of people affected by hunger would surpass 840 million by 2030. Ms Smaller begins by going over the state of global food security for the remainder of this year and 2023, both with respect to the price and availability. She then sheds light on the various dimensions of structural food security, touching on income inequality, climate change, distributional bottlenecks, and insufficient global coordination. But there is some glimmer of hope, with initiatives like Ceres 2030 estimating the funds and work required to end global hunger by the end of this decade, galvanizing official donors, private philanthropies, and multilateral organisations. We go over promising technologies, recent developments in global trade rules, and state of resource mobilisation that reflect some degree of resolve to deal with this crisis. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E081 - Prof Robert Dekle on recession risks and inflation 44:24

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44:24

Robert Dekle, Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California, joins Kopi Time. Robert’s speciality is Japan, so we start there, going over his views on the yen’s rapid depreciation this year and the sustainability of yield curve control going forward. Robert thinks that there may still be some time left for BoJ to stay with its ultra-easy monetary policy stance, but the clock is ticking. For the longer-term, aging creates formidable headwind with respect to Japan’s domestic economic outlook, which is a major cautionary lesson for other parts of the world that are experiencing an adverse demographic shift. We then talk about the idea that aging and accompanying shrinking of the labour force could cause structural inflation. Robert thinks that between automation and the contribution from countries like India and Vietnam to the global labour pool, this fear may be overstated. We then move on to the US, talking about inflation. Robert sees a fairly long runway left for policy tightening, but also not a full resolution to the elevated inflation issue, with 2% inflation not being secured before 2025. The main reason for this, in Robert’s view, is that US fiscal/monetary policies will not become draconian enough. Robert sees high mortgage rates begin to cool the housing market, and some decline in pump prices being helpful, but worries about sticky food prices. He sees a US dollar peak around the corner as growth slowdown ensues, but at the same time sees lingering risk for emerging markets from high US rates and still-strong USD. We round up our discussion with inflation in the context of climate change and globalisation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time 080 - Serey Chea on central banking and fintech for good 1:04:01

for 3 years siden1:04:01

1:04:01

Serey Chea, Assistant Governor at the National Bank of Cambodia, joins to Kopi Time to provide an incisive view on central banking geared toward financial development and inclusion. She talks about the government’s role during the pandemic to support the population through a series of financial measures, including the tricky job of keeping ATMs going even as banknote sourcing faced global mobility restrictions. We then delve into Bakong, a blockchain-based peer to peer payment system for financial sector participants in Cambodia. Ms Chea talks about the genesis, use case, outcome, challenges, and potential with clarity and depth, flagging ideas that would be useful for many developing economies. She adds a human dimension to central banking by referring to her personal experience in seeing people struggle with lack of financial inclusion or financial literacy. Truly inspirational. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E079 - Minister Grace Fu on green transition, energy & food security, climate finance 50:01

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50:01

Ms. Grace Fu, Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment, joins Kopi Time to go over the nation’s challenges and response regarding sustainability and climate. She lays out, in sobering detail, the issues associated with recalibrating the entire economy for green transition, with heightened focus on energy and food security. While cognizant of the steep hill to climb toward a mid-century net zero goal, Minister Fu is constructive about the work being done with public-private coordination and cooperation, as well as the myriad of financial and technological solutions available and under development. We go over Singapore’s plans for carbon tax, greening of the energy grid and overall infrastructure, the exciting area of urban agri tech, and the ongoing changes in global regulatory environment for decarbonisation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E078 - China slowdown and implications for Asean growth 6:36

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6:36

Substantial trade linkage notwithstanding, Asean’s near-term outlook is not particularly vulnerable to the ongoing slowdown in China . Asia faces many macro risks, but a slowing China in not at the top of the list. Global inflation threat is a non-China factor Chinese tourists have been largely non-existent since 2020, hence there is no additional downside. Asean’s trade with China is a global demand beta that can withstand a domestic demand slowdown. US interest rates, global capital flows, and food/fuel prices matter more for Asean. Full commentary and analysis available here . See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E077 - Barry Eichengreen on War, Inflation, Crypto, Debt 34:28

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34:28

Barry Eichengreen, professor at University of California at Berkeley, a foremost expert on economics and international finance, joins Kopi Time. We begin with the war in Ukraine, where he is calling for rebuilding to begin even before the conflict is over, led by a consortium that supersedes multilateral institutions like the IMF/World Bank. We also delve into the demonstration effect of the sanctions imposed on Russia on other potential antagonists. In relation to that, the reach and scope of the weaponisation of the USD is discussed. We then move on to the issues of the moment, global inflation spike direction of Fed policy, recession risks, and debt overhang, with an interlude on digital currencies. A tour de force. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E076 - Gojek's CL Lien on Running an e-Services Platform 44:29

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44:29

CL Lien, avid mountaineer and ultra-marathon runner, and Singapore General Manager of Gojek, an e-services platform, joins Kopi Time to discuss managing the business through a wide range of challenges and disruptions. We talk about the driver-partner model and the various dimensions around that. Lien sheds light on how Gojek managed through the pandemic and how the business is shaping up presently, especially in light of rising fuel prices and interest rates. We touch on the imperative to find green solutions to transportation and logistics, and the balance between embracing innovation and automating jobs away. Lien brings empathy and social realism to decision-making and strategy, a great leadership trait. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E075: Tan Su Shan on banking through a pandemic, war, and digital disruption 44:55

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44:55

Our guest to mark Kopi Time’s 75th episode is Tan Su Shan, Group Head of Institutional Banking at DBS. In a wide ranging chat, we talk about how her business is dealing with the various challenges associated with the conflict in Ukraine and the pandemic. Su Shan walks us through the approaches to managing credit risk and emergency measures deployed in these contexts. We then delve into the role of data and digitalisation in transforming banking and finance, especially in helping clients keep pace with a range of disruptions. We then talk about stakeholder accountability and green finance, especially the role technology can play in the latter. The looming topic of rising inflation and interest rates is discussed next, with the balance between rising rates helping the bottom line initially, but then those higher rates also manifesting in higher credit risks. Su Shan recognises that to deal with unavoidable complexity and volatility, the key is to have an agile team that thrives on open communication. It is this trust in her team that makes her optimistic about her business outlook. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E074: EY's Sol Magaz on the Healthcare Sector through the Pandemic 41:54

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41:54

Sol Magaz, Partner, Life Sciences and Healthcare in EY, joins Kopi Time to discuss her area of expertise. We begin by discussing how the sector reacted and adjusted to the pandemic, both in the West and here in Asia. Sol explains the disruptions and innovations through the use of advanced data analytics and practices that allowed for vaccines and therapeutics to be developed in record time. We focus on the digital legacy of this crisis, whether it is through tele-diagnostics or tele-therapeutics, or through synthetic trials. We then talk about other mega trends in the industry and the role of Asian countries in the global innovation space. We touch upon the leap-frog aspect of digital transformation in healthcare, where people in rural areas can get access to healthcare through their smartphones, care that was previously only provided when and if hospitals were built nearby. We end by discussing the soaring cost of healthcare and ways to address them from public and private angles. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E073: Vulcan AI’s Manik Bhandari on new tech’s application and ethics 49:59

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49:59

Manik Bhandari, CEO and Founder of Vulcan AI, an Artificial Intelligence company that focuses on building safety and productivity solutions, joins Kopi Time. He begins by providing an overview of the tech start-up scene in Singapore, describing how the public sector, through various initiatives, nudges entrepreneurs to develop profitable solutions that are good for the society. Manik’s firm’s focus is on deploying the power of big data and artificial intelligence in agriculture, transportation, workplace safety, elder care, etc. These are areas with room for innovation, but also entail deep ethical considerations on the line between profit and good. He offers his insights on the local talent pool, the best way to enhance tech skills, and the way entrepreneurs should use Singapore’s ecosystem as a launching pad for expanding in the region or globally. Manik points out that tech does not only mean coding and engineering, with numerous high value added jobs that require a much wider range of soft and hard skills. It’s a call to action to tech immersion, but with an ethical lens. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E072: Energy market mayhem with Vandana Hari 45:01

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45:01

Vandana Hari, Founder & CEO of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of global oil markets macro-analysis, returns to Kopi Time to shed light on the extraordinary volatility in the energy markets. She covers it all, from the current supply/demand dynamic to Russia’s role in the energy markets, from alternative source of supply to the various logistical and geopolitical constraints at play, the near term outlook, which is grim, and the legacy of this crisis. Critical insights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E071: Security expert Jonah Blank on Ukraine, Europe, China, US, Asia 50:34

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50:34

Jonah Blank, senior visiting research fellow with the National University of Singapore, and formerly South and Southeast Asia Policy Director for Joe Biden in the US Senate, joins Kopi Time for a deep dive on contemporary geopolitics. We devote the first half of the podcast on Ukraine, spanning Putin’s motivation, risk of regional spillover, impact of sanctions, and possible end-game scenarios. Jonah makes astute observations on the complexities and historical context at play, while acknowledging the exceptional uncertainty that lies ahead. We then move on to Russia-China matters, including the intersection of strategic interests and cooperation on payments and energy/commodity trade. Jonah then offers a somewhat inside-the-beltway perspective on competition/rivalry between China and the US. We conclude by North and South East Asia’s dilemmas in this context. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E070: Prof Razeen Sally on the economics and geopolitics of trade deals 52:02

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52:02

Razeen Sally, Associate Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, joins Kopi Time to discuss trends in regional and global trade. We begin with the latest on RCEP and CP-TPP, with emphasis on the key gainers, the gaps in the agreements, role of China and the US, and the potential impact on the region. Prof Sally points out that CP-TPP is a true 21st century deal, covering critical topics such as data, intellectual property, and services, but its outlook is hazy with the US political environment not being conducive to trade deals. In contrast, RCEP may have less teeth, but it is more likely to be implemented. We then move on to the geopolitical and internal considerations for the US and China on matters of free trade and open markets. We discuss new mercantilism, Singapore’s role as a global city in the years of geopolitical struggle ahead, and the various associated scenarios. Plenty of food for thought. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E069: Mark Sobel on the US, Germany, China, IMF 50:00

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50:00

Mark Sobel, US chairman at Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) and former US Treasury deputy assistant secretary for international monetary and financial policy, returns to Kopi Time for a deep dive into global macro and international finance. We begin by going over the US, from the present state of the economy to Fed policy, risk of inflation and aggressive policy, and the outlook for further fiscal effort. Mark has a broadly glass half-full perspective on these matters. We touch on the Biden administration’s take on global trade, on which Mark focuses on the shift in tone between this and the previous administration. We then move on to his recent article, provocatively titled “German and Chinese growth models are outdated.” Mark feels that the economies of Germany and China, short of new growth models, will continue to slow down, dragging the rest of the world with them. We conclude by discussing the IMF’s mandate and focus in the period ahead. Chock-full of insights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E068: Saurabh Jain on India’s dynamic tech start-up scene 39:45

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39:45

This episode takes its cue from a couple of riveting conversations I’ve had with Saurabh Jain , founder of Connexio, a provider of human capital services to organisations across Asia, focusing on the startup ecosystem. From each of those conversations, I have come away from the feeling that something really interesting is going on in one particular area of Saurabh’s focus - India. The country’s scale, entrepreneurial tradition and problem solving culture, and the current global juncture of where markets and geopolitics stand, make the start-up proposition in India a compelling one. We talk about the supply, demand, idiosyncrasy, and depth of skill in india's tech start-up talent pool, and the disruption brought in by the pandemic. We go over the key sectors going through disruption, ranging from education to health to agriculture to commerce. We also talk about the risks in the horizon, especially as the era of cheap money comes to an end. Saurabh’s two key risk factors for any company are hubris and inadequate internal control. Words to live by. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E067: Year-end commentary: Testing the guardrails 13:12

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13:12

We called our 2021 outlook A Bifurcated World, and the year lived up to that thesis. The global recovery has been extraordinarily uneven, from vaccine distribution to the impact of the sharp rally in asset markets, both of which have favoured the wealthy, not to mention fiscal and monetary support, which again have been the most supportive in nations with the most wherewithal. A globally coordinated approach to distribute medical equipment and vaccines on the one hand, financial support on the other hand, would have hastened the duration of the pandemic and softened its blow to livelihoods, but that didn’t happen, unfortunately and predictably. Our 2022 outlook is titled Testing the Guardrails. The bifurcated world, after delays and missteps, has built of some guardrails. Vaccine production is up and distribution is becoming more even. Economies are opening up with vaccinated travel lanes. Strong demand for manufactured goods and commodities is helping the emerging economies that export them. Funds and facilities for short-term challenges like debt repayment and buying medical equipment, and for long-term challenges like transition to renewable fuels, are becoming increasingly available. Against this context, what are the key risks? What are the sliver linings? Listen to our year-ending commentary as we discuss inflation, Fed, global debt, pandemic, and emerging markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E066: Danny Quah’s trampoline metaphor 49:00

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49:00

Danny Quah. Li Ka Shing Professor in Economics and Dean at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, joins Kopi Time. A scholar whose focus ranges from inequality to income mobility, international systems of trade and finance to world order among superpowers, Prof Quah underscores the importance of building greater resilience to pandemic, climate change, and technology waves. He also cares about social cohesion, without which even wealthy societies can stumble. Prof Quah combines the need for resilience and social cohesion in the metaphor of trampoline, a system that can take inevitable shocks and knocks but can bounce back readily. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E065: Martin Mühleisen on IMF, global macro, and policy risks 54:10

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54:10

We welcome Martin Mühleisen , who until last year ran the International Monetary Fund’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. In a frank and wide ranging discussion, Martin assesses the global policy response to the pandemic, its seismic scale, impact, and potential costs. He considers our two generational challenges, inequality and climate change, and mulls over the political and macro cyclical dimensions of fighting these two trends. Martin is wary of multilateral over-reach, especially in the context of the IMF. He is also worried about likely sovereign debt restructurings ahead among some developing economies, and the issue of involving China, which has become a large creditor to these nations in recent years. Martin remains optimistic that the medium term outlook can benefit from more dispersion of technology, along with measures to assist the population through the disruptive aspects of technology and climate transition. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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Kopi Time E064: Blackrock’s Neeraj Seth on US, China, and EM rates strategy 41:26

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41:26

Neeraj Seth, Managing Director and Head of Asian Fixed Income at BlackRock, joins to Kopi Time to talk about rates and credit outlook in the US, China, and rest of Asia. We begin with an overview of the current slowing-growth-firming-inflation dynamic, which Neeraj finds not alarming given the lingering strength in demand, and the supply side nature of production disruptions and inflation. He also thinks the US credit/rates space is likely to remain supported in 2022 even around a Fed taper window. We then move on to China; Neeraj details his views on credit market stress, rregulatory tightening, power shortage, supply side disruption, common prosperity, policy outlook, and the value in various fixed income assets. We also discuss the shock absorptive capacity of China’s financial sector. We then move on to the rest of the region, going over the markets of India, Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand. Neeraj’s wealth of experience in managing regional assets makes his views particularly worthwhile to listen. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E063: Ilan Goldfajn on global outlook, inflation, EM risks 37:26

for 4 years siden37:26

37:26

Dr. Ilan Goldfajn, former Governor of the Central Bank of Brazil (2016-19) and presently Chairman of the Board, Credit Suisse Brazil, joins Kopi Time to share his deep expertise on economic policy making and financial markets. We begin by talking about the policy space available in EM and DM to deal with the soaring cost of the pandemic. Ilan then shares his view on the social, political, and institutional dimensions of the cycle in Latin America. He proceeds to offer his views on the global inflation situation, and how temporary and permanent inflation outcomes can weigh on policy credibility, exchange rates, and markets. We discuss the US in depth, especially with regard to the merits and pitfalls of average inflation targeting and the limits of fiscal policy. Ilan will take over the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department in January of 2022; it will be a fitting return to a place where he worked more than two decades ago. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E062: ECB’s Paul Hiebert on the risk map of Europe's financial system 46:52

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46:52

Paul Hiebert, head of Systemic Risk & Financial Institutions Division at European Central Bank, returns to Kopi Time to talk about ECB’s views on financial stability. We go over the pandemic’s impact on the financial system, interest rate sensitivity of various sectors, corporate solvency risks, and household balance sheets. We then move on to longer dated risks, of which climate change is the one that looms the largest. Paul shares with us the findings on measuring and modelling climate change impacts for the European Union, exposure mapping, data and methodological challenges, and the need to deal with greenwashing. From companies to global regulators, the intersection of climate change and financial stability has forced a steep learning curve; Paul underscores that much has been done, but a lot more remains to be accomplished. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E061: Dr. Ma Jun on China’s climate change agenda 37:01

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37:01

Dr. Ma Jun wears many hats. The former PBOC Chief Economist is now the President of Institute of Finance and Sustainability in Beijing, Chairman of China Green Finance Committee, Special Advisor to PBOC Governor, Co-Chair of G20 Sustainable Finance Working Group, and Co-Chair of Steering Committee of Green Investment Principles for the Belt & Road. He begins with a startling figure: by his estimates, China would need to invest resources amounting to 10% of GDP every year for the next four decades to achieve the 2060 net zero target. The green financing requirements, economic restructuring imperative, along with systems of emission trading, risk assessment, and governance standards needed would be profoundly transformative for the Chinese economy, and by extension, for the world. Jun highlights key initiatives in place, areas where China is working together with the US, Asian economies, as well as multilaterally, and expresses his optimism that tangible progress lies ahead. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E060: Sopnendu Mohanty on Singapore’s burgeoning FinTech scene 39:00

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39:00

On a recent beautiful afternoon, in the island of Sentosa, Sopnendu Mohanty, Chief Fintech Officer, Monetary Authority of Singapore, joined Kopi Time to go over the nation’s burgeoning FinTech sector. He begins the conversation by noting that Singapore’s relatively small market size paved the way for numerous innovations in the area of business-to-business fintech: “Constraint brings new opportunity.” He then goes over Singapore’s journey of developing fin-tech relevant human capital , raising growth capital , fostering community capital , and entrenching trust capital over the past half-decade. The journey has also entailed major regulatory developments, sand-box experiments, and collaboration with key multilateral official sector institutions as well as various private sector entities. Project Ubin-Partior, Proxtera for SMEs, and APIX are examples of the pragmatic and business-oriented developments nurtured by the regulators. Foundational public goods such as digital identity , trusted data exchange , interoperable payment systems , and consent architecture have been developed, paving the way for innovation in domestic and cross-border payments , fundamentally changing the cost, speed, and security of such transactions. Sopnendu talks about the application of CBDCs, and why such currencies have better use case for a developing country than a developed one. He then elaborates on the digital transformation challenges faced by SMEs , and how MAS is helping address them. On the issue of climate change , Sopnendu sees the Fintech space as a critical source of data and behavioural nudges that can move the needle, especially with respect to green solutions needed by companies and individuals. Singapore has lately become a vibrant space for green product-related research and development, as well as fund raising, something the authorities have encouraged actively. What about future technologies and solutions in the pipeline? What key developments await us? Sopnendu ends this riveting chat with his crystal ball. Watch/listen and find out! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E059: Anne Krueger on trade, inflation, wages, and industrial policy 47:32

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47:32

Anne Krueger, a veteran of international economics, Senior Research Professor at the School for Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, joins Kopi Time. She is candid in her criticism of the current US administration’s stance on trade with China, guarded about the usefulness of industrial policy, and against a substantial rise in federal minimum wage. With sharp reasoning, she breaks down the risks associated with inflation, stimulus measures, international support to deal with the pandemic, and central bank digital currencies. At 87, Dr Krueger remains as brilliant as ever; an inspiration to work productively long past what tradition dictates to be retirement age. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E058: Komal Sri-Kumar on Fed policy, inflation, and asset markets 54:04

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54:04

"The risk is the Fed doesn’t overshoot 2% inflation by a small margin, but by a large amount. ” "Low interest rate cannot help the poor who don’t own real and financial assets. They need wage increases." Astute long-term market observer Komal Sri-Kumar (President of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute) returns to Kopi Time to share his concerns on economic overheating, inflation risks, Fed credibility, housing market, and rising inequality. Sri switched from being a long-term US fixed income bull to a bear earlier this year, expecting 2%+ 10-yr US bond yield by the end of the year. He is not only worried about the knock-on impact of prolonged monetary easing on inflation and financial stability in the US, but the likely destabilising global implications through the liquidity and exchange rate channels. He is short duration, neutral to bearish USD, long gold, and long commodities (food, energy, metals). He has no conviction on equities, especially given the high valuations and the risk of Fed misstep. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E057: BIS research head Hyun Song Shin on CBDCs 53:45

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53:45

Dr. Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of Research at the Bank for International Settlements, joins Kopi Time to discuss the latest in Central Bank Digital Currencies or CBDCs. We begin with the basics: is CBDC nothing more than a digital banknote? What kind of interest in CBDCs is there among the community of central banks? What kind of payments, settlement, or other financial/social problems at the domestic level can be solved by a CBDC? What about cross border payments? What are the ideal design features and potential points of friction? What about data privacy? Would private sector stable coins complicate matters? Hyun addresses all this with great detail and clarity, and ends by sharing with us his vision for CBDCs five years from now. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E056: Mary Ellen Iskenderian on digital finance for women 47:25

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47:25

Mary Ellen Iskenderian, President and CEO of Women’s World Banking, joins Kopi Time to talk about giving low-income women in the developing world access to the financial tools and resources. She begins by setting the ground for where we stand with respect to gender equity. She points out that financial inclusion means more than just having a bank account; increasingly, a better indicator is access to a smartphone, in which there remains a large gender gap. She shares her organisation’s rich insights into partnering with governments and entrepreneurs to come up with innovative, increasingly digital, gender-based solutions that lift up women and reduce inequality. She explains that the research and experience of her organisation forms the basis for providing a wide range of companies with the tools and programs needed to build gender-diverse teams. Women’s World Banking has also been involved in successful gender-lens investments; Mary Ellen shares her experience with fund raising, successful exits, and the impact of the pandemic on such investments. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E055: Maya MacGuineas on US deficit and debt 46:23

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46:23

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, joins Kopi Time from Washington DC to talk about all things fiscal. She provides an historical context to the path of US government debt, from balanced budget and near zero debt days of the 1990s to 100%+ debt/GDP today. She provides valuable insights into the rigidities of spending, the political inclination to pursue unfunded tax cuts and spending increases, and the risk of unchecked expansion of federal government deficit and debt. She assesses the pros and cons of the recent and forthcoming fiscal packages, her wish list of fiscal reforms, especially fiscal rules, and the political room available for debt consolidation. Maya’s team works with both major US political parties to keep fiscal responsibility alive; it’s hard but essential work, and is critically important to follow for those invested in the US economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E054: Singapore’s renewed pandemic stringency 6:47

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6:47

This special episode is a commentary by DBS chief economist Taimur Baig. Singapore’s January-April economic momentum will be disrupted by a set of renewed stringent measures. New coronavirus variants are highly transmissible; they may also have some vaccine resistant properties. An abundance of caution warrants a degree of reinforced stringency on mobility and proximity. Singapore’s imperative now is to vaccinate a wider population as soon as possible, as vaccinated individuals are extremely unlikely to suffer from severe illness or fatality. Japan’s real GDP likely contacted by 2% in 1Q as domestic demand deteriorated due to the resurgence of COVID-19, fully offsetting the recovery in exports. Same could be on the cards for Singapore in 2Q. Between progress with vaccination and targeted fiscal support, Singapore should come out of the May/June turbulence quickly. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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Kopi Time E053: Juliana Chan on scientific communication and entrepreneurship in Asia 48:48

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48:48

Juliana Chan, founder & CEO of Wildtype Media Group, joins Kopi Time to talk about the state of publication, R&D, and public-private partnerships in the area of science and tech in Asia. She delves into the areas of transformational technology under development in China, Japan, and Singapore, the role of women in science in the region, and the burgeoning ecosystem that is promoting research commercialisation. As important as scientific breakthroughs is disseminating those insights to the public, critical to build awareness on matters such as pandemic response or climate change. The views, information, or opinions expressed during this Podcast are solely those of the individuals involved and do not necessarily represent those of DBS Bank. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

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