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Innhold levert av Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy. Alt podcastinnhold, inkludert episoder, grafikk og podcastbeskrivelser, lastes opp og leveres direkte av Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy eller deres podcastplattformpartner. Hvis du tror at noen bruker det opphavsrettsbeskyttede verket ditt uten din tillatelse, kan du følge prosessen skissert her https://no.player.fm/legal.
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
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Manage series 3283645
Innhold levert av Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy. Alt podcastinnhold, inkludert episoder, grafikk og podcastbeskrivelser, lastes opp og leveres direkte av Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy eller deres podcastplattformpartner. Hvis du tror at noen bruker det opphavsrettsbeskyttede verket ditt uten din tillatelse, kan du følge prosessen skissert her https://no.player.fm/legal.
His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com
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105 episoder
Merk alt (u)spilt...
Manage series 3283645
Innhold levert av Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy. Alt podcastinnhold, inkludert episoder, grafikk og podcastbeskrivelser, lastes opp og leveres direkte av Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy eller deres podcastplattformpartner. Hvis du tror at noen bruker det opphavsrettsbeskyttede verket ditt uten din tillatelse, kan du følge prosessen skissert her https://no.player.fm/legal.
His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com
…
continue reading
105 episoder
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 141: Policy Volatility and Systemic Adaptability 33:20
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For a while, we are going to be returning periodically to the question of how the economy, markets, and inflation respond to economic policy volatility. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about some mildly disturbing signs that manufacturing leadership may not be as adaptable as it once was, and as he had previously assumed. And that's all bad news, both from an economic fragility standpoint (it could mean the garden-variety recession the Inflation Guy has been talking about will be something more like a Hanging Gardens of Babylon-variety recession) and from an inflationary standpoint (fragility on the supply side makes upward thrusts in inflation more normal). Hopefully, his prior assumptions were right and these concerns are misplaced...but they should be considered. NOTES “Mass layoffs in trucking and retail coming – Apollo” https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mass-layoffs-in-trucking-and-retail-are-coming-apollo Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (April) https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504 Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin 23:00
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Today's podcast is a very important one. Coming 298 days after episode 113 (this may be a future trivia answer, but probably not), in this episode the Inflation Guy announces the launch of a project of great importance and significance to those who worry about inflation and are concerned about defending their money. Please read the important disclaimer below. NOTES USDi Partners website: https://usdicoin.com/ Press Release Noting Launch of USDi Coin: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1EJFkc0juTxU2mBEpB4qa6aKIuOUhF_GE Michael C. Lovell and Robert C. Vogel, “ A CPI-Futures Market ” (1973) https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/260096?journalCode=jpe Milton Friedman, “ Financial Futures Markets and Tabular Standards ” (1984) https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830554 William W. Jennings, “Disaggregated TIPS: the case for disaggregating inflation-linked bonds into bonds linked to narrower CPI components Slicing and Dicing TIPS ” (2006) https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747206002551 Ep. 18: Cash is an Option Whose Cost is Inflation https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-18-cash-is-an-option-whose-cost-is-inflation/ Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-32-the-remarkable-story-of-inflation-futures/ Ep. 56: A New Way to Trade Inflation https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-56-a-new-way-to-trade-inflation/ Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon? https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-98-will-you-be-able-to-trade-medical-care-inflation-soon/ Ep. 102: Gold and Crypto - Are Either, or Both, Real? https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-102-gold-and-crypto-are-either-or-both-real/ Ep. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and Promises https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-113-real-world-crypto-escapades-concerns-threats-and-promises/ Blog callback: “A Price-Linked USD” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/ Blog callback: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Important Disclaimer: The USDi Coin is offered only to accredited investors. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of the instrument described herein may differ materially from those discussed here. This information is as of the date indicated, is not complete nor has it been audited, and does not contain certain material information about the products to be offered, including important disclosures and risk factors associated with an investment. Neither Enduring Investments, USDi Partners, nor their principals, employees, agents or authorized representatives, makes any warranty or representation, whether express or implied, or assumes any legal liability for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any information disclosed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 139: This Month's CPI Report – Uncertainty Reigns 29:25
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Welcome to CPI Day - this one, in the midst of a head-spinning market turmoil. This moves the CPI report back a little bit in terms of its importance, but the underlying inflation pressures and the effect on prices of tariffs, going forward, are a big part of the reason for the market turmoil. Uncertainty implies lower prices for risky assets, and we are seeing that. It also has implications for inflation itself, through velocity, and for the hurdle to make policy moves as a central banker. Join the Inflation Guy as he untangles today's CPI report, and a lot of the surrounding noise. NOTES Episode callback: “Ep. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-137-drug-prices-and-the-most-favored-nation-clause/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 138: Reciprocal Tariff Day and the Adaptability of Manufacturing 22:40
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Tomorrow, April 2nd, is 'Reciprocal Tariff Day,' when the US will impose tariffs designed to equalize (how well, no one knows) the tariffs faced by foreign imports to the US with the tariffs faced by US exports to other countries. From everything you read, this is going to be a calamity. But the Inflation Guy has a different take, and it comes from an understanding of how manufacturing actually works - with job 1 always being Make Sure the Worst Outcome Doesn't Happen. Listen to this (unscripted!) episode to hear what he means by this. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause 35:25
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The pricing and distribution of pharmaceuticals is one of the most opaque major pricing systems in the United States. There are oligopolies at the wholesaler level and at the Pharmacy Benefits Manager (PBM) level, which completely control consumer-level pricing. The Inflation Guy explains this system, which has attracted the ire of President Trump in the past since Americans also pay much higher prices for medications than consumers in other countries pay for the same medications; in 2020 President Trump called for a Most-Favored-Nation clause to be applied to drug companies but his first term ended before he could pursue it. Expect the topic to come up again...and this time, you'll understand why it's a great cudgel but doesn't really address the problem! NOTES Inflation Guy Blog Post: “Drug Prices and Most-Favored-Nation Clauses: Considerations” https://inflationguy.blog/2020/08/25/drug-prices-and-most-favored-nation-clauses-considerations/ Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 136: This Month's CPI Report – Settling in, Too High 23:00
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It's time for the monthly CPI report, and this one seems apiece with other economic happenings recently: December and January were all over the place, but in February the inflation numbers are settling back down. The problem is, they're settling in at too high a level, and it gets harder and harder to see how we are going to get inflation back to the Fed's target. Not that the Fed really cares very much, and the Inflation Guy explains why that is. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 135: Is the DOGE Dividend Inflationary? 34:44
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We are moving too fast, with too many topics! The Inflation Guy hits on four different topics today before running out of time and deferring some until the next episode. Today, (a) Is the 'DOGE Dividend' inflationary? (b) How impactful are 25% tariffs on the price level? (And ironically, taxpayers might actually make money in real terms on the deal). (c) Are we going to get a recession, and what does that even mean these days? (d) Why are implied volatilities so low with policy uncertainties so high? More next week... NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 134: What if Prices Really Were Stable? 31:00
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Today the Inflation Guy answers a listener's question, which is 'if the US were ever to have sustained 0% inflation, what would the effects be?' It is a simple question but it leads to some profound thoughts about what price stability is, and what it means...if anything. Of course, you have to listen to the Inflation Guy's weekly gripe first, but you can fast forward through that part. (It makes him feel good so we leave it in.) NOTES Nalebuff and Ayres Book: Why Not?: How to Use Everyday Ingenuity to Solve Problems Big And Small https://amzn.to/4hKssS8 Blog Post on interest rates and inflation: “Enough with Interest Rates Already” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/06/21/enough-with-interest-rates-already/ Blog Post on Corn: “Corn Prices – Has the Correction Run its Course?” https://inflationguy.blog/2022/09/21/corn-prices-has-the-correction-run-its-course/ Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 133: This Month's CPI Report – I Guess We Are Still Transitory-ing? 34:19
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It's the monthly inflation report for January's CPI, and this one was surprising. It would have been alarming, except that we have been through five years of inflation unlike anything we had seen since the 1980s. So, we're jaded. The Inflation Guy walks through today's report and considers wildfires, tariffs, and most-favored-nation status. A tour de force! NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ ) Blog on "Drug Prices and Most-Favored-Nation Clauses: Considerations" from August 2020 https://inflationguy.blog/2020/08/25/drug-prices-and-most-favored-nation-clauses-considerations/ To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Today's episode is somewhat shorter than the norm, since last week's episode was a little longer than the norm. Today, the Inflation Guy notes that M2 money velocity declined very slightly in Q4, and points out a weird - but possibly important - effect that could have the perverse effect of dampening inflation slightly. (To be sure, the Inflation Guy thinks there are other, larger forces at play but this is an interesting one that is worth highlighting in case it continues!) NOTES Prior Podcasts from the IG on Velocity: Ep. 10: A High-Velocity Tour of Velocity ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-10-a-high-velocity-tour-of-velocity/ ) Ep. 34: Velocity Turns Higher...Whoops! ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/velocity-turns-higherwhoops/ ) Ep. 50: What the Money Velocity Comeback Means for Inflation, and Investors ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-50-what-the-money-velocity-comeback-means-for-inflation-and-investors/ ) Ep. 108: Revisiting Velocity - Myths and Reality ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-108-revisiting-velocity-myths-and-reality/ ) Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 131: How Tariffs Affect You - Three Things You Maybe Didn't Know 40:15
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It seems every day these days we hear about another tariff being applied to a trading partner of the U.S. (or, more usually, being threatened). The usual media reaction to these threats are something along the lines of saying "Oh my sainted aunt. This sort of talk gives me the vapors" because it is so, so, so bad. Tariffs are archaic shibboleths that no truly modern economist would ever support. Come to think of it, that sounds like the archaic notion that money causes inflation. But we digress. The Inflation Guy in today's episode discussed three things about tariffs that you might have thought you knew...and certainly everyone else seems to think they know...but which don't really work that way in the real world. NOTES Yesterday’s Inflation Guy blog on this topic: “Trump Tactical Targeted Tariffs: A Reminder of the Impact of Tariffs” https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/29/trump-tactical-targeted-tariffs-a-reminder-of-the-impact-of-tariffs/ Ashton, Michael, The Efficient Tariff: Systematically Balancing Security and Welfare Concerns (March 1, 1992). The American Economist, Vol 36, No 1, 1992, pp 44-52. , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2915287 Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 130: The Long-Term Effects of 4% Inflation vs 2% 34:45
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Today the Inflation Guy answers a reader question. What are the long-term effects of having 4% inflation compared with 2% inflation? Does that small increase in the inflation rate have any important ramifications? Hooo yeah you betcha it does. The Inflation Guy goes through a number of them, and feels like he probably left some out in the process. Along the way, he also had some choice remarks about why the Federal Reserve next week and over the next few months, even though it has no economic reason to cut rates, may well still do so . Find out why. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 129: This Month's CPI Report – This One Isn’t the Story 28:43
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Let's face it: there is nothing more exciting than the monthly consumer inflation report. Don't we all agree on that? Is there any day that we collectively brace the day with such enthusiasm as the day the CPI report comes out? Surely not. However, this month...the December CPI...just isn't the story. The Inflation Guy today dutifully addresses the data, but more importantly focuses on how the data is surely going to be different going forward due to many, many causes for inflection that are operating right now. This will change data, markets, and narratives. The IG guides you through it all! NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ ) Ep. 127: The Point of Inflation Inflection ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-127-the-point-of-inflation-inflection/ ) Website for California Wildfire official tracking ( https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 128: Will Wildfires Change the Inflation Trajectory? 29:27
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It's 2025, and the Inflation Guy - like inflation itself, actually - is not yet dead. After a one-month hiatus, he kicks off the new year with a quick review of the current state of affairs and then addresses the question of whether the catastrophic California wildfires will help push inflation higher. It isn't as if that is the most-important thing to think about, when it comes to those fires - but it is worth thinking about all of the implications of large-scale disasters. ERRATUM- IG refers to Bullard. Brain freeze. He meant Waller, a current member of the Board of Governors at the Fed. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (November 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/12/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-november-2024/ ) Last 2024 Podcast “Ep. 127: The Point of Inflation Inflection” ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-127-the-point-of-inflation-inflection/ ) Old Blog: “Some Effects on Inflation from Harvey and Irma” (from 2017) ( https://inflationguy.blog/2017/09/11/some-effects-on-inflation-from-harvey-and-irma/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

1 Ep. 127: The Point of Inflation Inflection 30:34
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For more than a year now, the story about inflation and why inflation was almost certainly going to stay high (in the 'high 3s, low 4s' on median inflation, as the Inflation Guy has long held) was a story about the guaranteed rebound in money velocity. That has been an easy story and forecasting medium-term inflation has been consequently pretty easy. That is changing. Velocity has made a round trip to where it was prior to COVID. And that means that the underlying drivers of inflation going forward are changing. In this episode, the Inflation Guy explains what that means for the future of inflation. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (October 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/11/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-october-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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