The Contrarian Investor podcast

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Pessimism's Return, Trump 2.0 Opportunities, With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors 54:32

for 4 dager siden54:32

54:32

Phil Pecsok of Anacapa Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss the return of pessimism to the market and the economic and market repercussions of Trump's various policies. This podcast episode was recorded in two segments, the second on Feb. 24 with the express purpose of discussing with the then-nascent sell-off and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. More information is available here . This podcast deviates from the usual format by including the guest's first-hand account of the LA wildfires. This admittedly has only limited relation to investing, but was kept mostly intact for human interest reasons. Listeners can skip past these segments, identified below. Content Highlights Walmart (WMT) earnings ushered in a fresh round of selling in stocks that has yet to reverse (1:05) The concerns raised by Walmart earnings are legitimate, but stocks should still rise this year (5:02); The guest, a resident of the Pacific Palisades, recounts his harrowing experience with the LA fires (11:25); Economic repercussions of the fires (14:32); Trump will ultimately be good for the economy and for markets. Fade any Trump-generated market panic (27:51); Why you shouldn't buy defense contractor stocks yet (37:18); The outlook for inflation is not great. This will likely keep the Fed from cutting rates (41:52). For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com .…

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AI Stocks Can't Lead the Market Much Longer. Invest Internationally Instead: Dan Rasmussen, Verdad Capital 42:22

for 15 dager siden42:22

42:22

Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Capital joins the podcast to discuss the dwindling prospects for AI stocks and why investors might want to look outside the US for better returns. This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Monday, Feb. 17, 2025 without ads or announcements. For more information about premium membership options, visit our Substack . Content Highlights AI stocks have been on an incredible run, massively growing profits without much capital spending. That equation has changed... (1:51); Tech companies are going from software businesses to manufacturing concerns -- capital- and energy-intensive businesses that simply can't produce the same growth as previous (6:03); DeepSeek claims to be able to reduce the cost of AI applications. How does that factor in to the equation? (9:09); So if the 'Mag 7' and AI stocks won't drive the market higher, then what will? Where will growth come from? (12:16); One place to start is to look for global diversification. Outside the US, stocks are meaningful cheaper... (15:24); The guest's book 'The Humble Investor' (21:37); What can supply 'edge' in investing? There are some things. Legal ones... (27:10); Background on the guest (33:02); The guest is a historian by trade. What historical period is perhaps most comparable to the present day? Unfortunately, it looks an awful lot like 'peak bubble'... (36:08); More Information on the Guest Website: VerdadCap.com ; Twitter/X: @VerdadCap .…

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Prepare for End of US Dollar Cycle, as Emerging Markets Rise: Rohit Goel, Breakout Capital 47:23

for 23 dager siden47:23

47:23

Rohit Goel of Breakout Capital joins the podcast to discuss his view that the boom in the US dollar (and in US dollar-denominated assets) will soon give way, to be replaced by a long-awaited bullish cycle in emerging markets. Content Highlights Markets have grown accustomed to US dollar dominance and with it a surge in US assets, specifically stocks. That is due for a cyclical reversal (1:00); There are three factors supporting US growth. One of them is almost certainly due to run its course (4:43); The global economy revolves around the US consumer as driver of growth. But that too can change -- and other markets are better equipped to pick up the slack on their own (9:26); Despite all this, the US dollar should maintain its status as reserve currency. However, its dominance is waning (14:55); Background on the guest (23:28); Big tech stocks have worked very well for over a decade. But things are shifting to eat into their cashflows and there are reasons to believe too much optimism could be priced in... (26:07); The trend is for growth to originate elsewhere than US tech... (30:28); Discussion of frontier markets (35:33). The guest requests listeners connect through LinkedIn .…

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The Looming Iceberg Ahead of the US Economy: Les Rubin, Main Street Economics 30:43

for 6 weeks siden30:43

30:43

Les Rubin of Main Street Economics joins the podcast to discuss his chief concern facing not just markets and economies, but the world at large: US sovereign debt. This podcast episode was recorded on Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025 and released to premium subscribers the same day. Information on premium subscriptions, including the vast benefits, are available on our Substack . Content Highlights The US economy is headed to 'serious problems' and the guest's mission is to educate people to the gravity of the situation (1:47); Debt and fiscal deficits are nothing for the US. But its debt/GDP ratios is reaching a breaking point (2:57); How soon might the breaking point arrive? (5:30); Is there anything from the new Trump administration that might turn the tide? Elon Musk's DOGE program has promise... (11:02); What about tariffs? (16:22); Background on the guest (20:36); The need for more education: not just financial literacy, but economics (23:55). More Information on the Guest Website: MainStreetEconomics.org ; YouTube: MainStreetEconomics762 ; LinkedIn: Main-Street-Economics ; Twitter/X: @MainStreetEcon ; Instagram: @MainStreetEconomics ; Facebook: MainStreetEconomics .…

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Natural Gas as the Energy of the Future: Applications and Investment Opportunities, With Farid Guindo 47:51

for 10 weeks siden47:51

47:51

Farid Guindo of Drill Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on natural gas -- not the commodity itself, necessarily, but its application to meet future energy demand. Content Highlights Natural gas as the energy of the future even as prices of the commodity itself plummet (1:08); Oil exploration is becoming increasingly difficult, expensive, and risky (2:58); The 'John D. Rockefeller moment' for natural gas (5:46); What role can nuclear energy play? (16:03); In natural gas, there will be winners and losers, however... (18:00); Where are the best opportunities? (19:51); Background on the guest (28:39); How will the new presidential administration (Trump 2.0) impact things? (41:38).…

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Opportunities in Closed-End Municipal Bond Funds: Jonathan Browne, RiverNorth Capital 40:44

for 15 weeks siden40:44

40:44

Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager at RiverNorth Capital, joins the podcast to discuss investment opportunities in municipal bonds, specifically through the closed-end fund structure. This podcast episode was made available to premium subscribers the day after recording and without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack . Content Highlights Quick primer on closed-end funds and their difference with mutual funds and ETFs (1:18); Municipal bonds and what to look for there (16:01); What kind of yield can investors expect from this asset class? (23:31); Background on the guest (26:50); Rising interest rates and inflation are certainly a risk for muni bonds, but the risk/reward is set up constructively... (30:59); Muni closed-end funds: a contrarian pick (37:28) For more on the guest, visit the website RiverNorth.com…

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US Election 'Black Swans' Include Significant Chance of Political Violence 32:04

for 18 weeks siden32:04

32:04

https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election. Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally. This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack . Content Highlights Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42); Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57); Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26); The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26); What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49); What about geopolitical risks? (20:42). For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com .…

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Tariffs, Strong US Dollar, Stocks Rally, M&A: What to Expect From Trump-onomics 2.0 (Should It Happen) 35:28

for 18 weeks siden35:28

35:28

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets. This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack . Content Highlights The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11); What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45); How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40); The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22); However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40); Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38); Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44); Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50). More From the Guest Website: MarcToMarket.com ; X: @marcmakingsense .…

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Trends Point to Trump Victory, Republican Sweep: Flip Pidot 48:02

for 19 weeks siden48:02

48:02

Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress. This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 22, 2024, and made available for premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium membership options is available on our Substack page . Content Highlights What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38); About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55); Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58); Background on the guest (23:05); If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30); Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28) More From the Guest Website: AmCiv.com ; X: @FlipPidot ; Prediction/polling aggregator: TheSupermodel.com .…

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The Bull Case for Industrial Commodities, AI, and More, With Tony Greer 34:25

for 23 weeks siden34:25

34:25

Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more. This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the next day. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack . There are a few points in this episode where adult language is used. Listener discretion is advised. Content Highlights Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31); China's stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term... (4:57); There are a number of ways to express the 'long commodities' trade. ETFs may be the simplest... (8:59) The bullish case for uranium (10:37); Don't fade the AI story (14:20); The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04); Background on the guest (22:30); Listener question: What's the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10); Election discussion (28:17). More Information on the Guest Website: TgMacro.com ; Twitter/X: @TgMacro ; Substack: @TgMacro .…

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Finding Contrarian Investors Among US Presidents Past and Present 49:28

for 23 weeks siden49:28

49:28

Hear podcast episodes without ads and before regular listeners by subscribing to our premium offering . Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year's presidential and vice presidential candidates. Content Highlights The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24); Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included... (6:37); Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04); Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals -- and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51); Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market... (21:11); What we know about the investments of this year's candidates for president and vice president (25:52); Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14); Presidents probably don't need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18) More Information on the Guest Website: AllThePresidentsMoney.com ; X: @Megan_E_Gorman .…

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Fed's Next Move, Trump 2.0, Opportunities in AI, Argentina: James Fishback 50:29

for 26 weeks siden50:29

50:29

James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed's shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues. This podcast was recorded on Sept. 4 and was being made available to premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available here . NB: The guest is outspoken on certain political beliefs discussed here. These views are not necessarily shared by the host or the Contrarian Investor Podcast more generally. Content Highlights The Federal Reserve is expect to cut 200 basis points off of interest rates when all is said and done. The reality should fall well short of that measure... (1:37); The US is economy growing in aggregate. Pain points are felt among lower socio-economic classes (4:44); The major change will not come from a major shift in monetary policy but what happens fiscally, with the November election (9:16); How to trade a Republican sweep? There's an acronym: T-R-U-M-P (10:54); Many companies have taken advantage of cheap labor supplied by illegal immigration. Their stocks will suffer once this is rolled back... (15:31); AI is real. Productivity gains will be massive (17:44); Crypto discussion. The best opportunity for bulls may to bet on lower volatility for Bitcoin... (22:47); Background on the guest (28:33); Azoria's first ETF will be called the Meritocracy Fund. The strategy (33:38); Another opportunity: Argentina (43:18) More Information on the Guest Website: AzoriaPartners.com ; Substack: HeadofMacro.com ; X: @j_fishback ; LinkedIn: Azoria-Partners…

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Economic Data Pointing in Right Direction, for Now: Colin White, Verecan Capital 42:54

for 28 weeks siden42:54

42:54

Colin White of Verecan Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy and why he considers the likelihood of a 'soft landing' to have increased... This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024 and made available for premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is avalailable on our Substack page .. Content Highlights Economic indicators are pointing to increased chances of a 'soft landing'... (1:10); The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) have 'bullets in their gun' in the form of interest rate cuts, should the need arise. Another reason for confidence (3:27); Employment numbers are the most important datapoint to watch right now (6:41); The Age of Finfluencers and dangers it has wrought (14:32); Central banks have a responsibility to act in the best interests of the general public. If they stray from that responsibility, the structure that governs central banks can change (19:29); Background on the guest (23:31); No, real estate is not always a good investment (34:11); AI discussion (37:41). More on the Guest: Website: Verecan.com ; Podcast: Barenaked Money ; LinkedIn .…

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Bonds Poised for More Upside. Tech Stocks Too: Chad Olivier 39:15

for 31 weeks siden39:15

39:15

Chad Olivier of Baton Rouge, La.-based The Olivier Group joins the podcast to discuss his view of markets and why he is bullish about bonds and technology stocks. This podcast episode was recorded July 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium subscriptions is available here . Content Highlights The view of the bond market has changed with the Fed (1:18) The Olivier Group started adding bond exposure through ETFs in the first quarter and expects to add to it... (3:18); The 10-year yield should drop to the 3% range "by this time next year" (4:43); Small caps have recovered lately but the guest is less bullish there (9:31); Technology stocks are much better positioned than in previous cycles (10:56); Municipal bonds may also present an opportunity... (15:41); Background on the guest (20:05); Oil markets could present another opportunity, especially large cap, dividend-paying companies (23:58); The political outlook and its impact on markets (25:51). For more information on the guest visit the website OlivierGroup.com .…

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Gold Prices Set to Move (Even) Higher: Dana Samuelson 40:42

for 32 weeks siden40:42

40:42

Dana Samuelson, president of the American Gold Exchange, joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss why gold prices are set up to rally further -- even after a 20% rise so far this year. This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, July 19. 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following business day. For information on becoming a premium subscriber -- and the host of other benefits it involves -- visit our Substack . Content Highlights Gold is trading right near all-time highs. Can there really be more room for upside? (1:48); One thing missing from the equation for still higher gold prices is interest rate cuts... (3:36); Another thing missing is fear in the market (5:07); Gold has rallied 20% so far this year. A Fed rate cut will supply another 10%. $3000/oz. gold is in sight... (8:36); What of the argument that there's no tangible use for gold? (11:20); Why gold coins are preferable to bars (14:30); Background on the guest (19:39); Quarters and dimes vintage 1964 are 90% silver (26:40); View on digital currencies and Bitcoin. There is a place for it... (33:20); How much of one's portfolio should be earmarked for gold and precious metals? (37:15) More Information on the Guest Twitter/X: @DanaSamuelson99 ; LinkedIn: @American-Gold-Exchange-Inc ; Website: AmerGold.com ; YouTube: AmericanGoldExchangeAustin .…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

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The 'Stoic Investment' Primer, With Darius Foroux 50:34

for 36 weeks siden50:34

50:34

Darius Foroux, author of the upcoming book 'The Stoic Path to Wealth,' joined the podcast to discuss his, well, stoic approach to investing. This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, June 25, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack . Content Highlights How interest in philosophy rekindled his interest in investing after the great financial crisis (1:32); A brief introduction to stoicism, a 2,300 year-old philosophy that is distinct from cynicism (4:08); How to apply this to investing (6:14); Isn't investing in indexes just the best way to go? (12:38); The '90/10' portfolio allocation: 90% in the S&P 500, 10% in individual stocks (17:24); The Dutch Stripe, trades in Amsterdam and on Pink Sheets (18:06); Background on the guest (28:54); The guest's second individual stock holding. Listeners will have heard about this one (33:01); How does a stoic combat FOMO (41:41). More Information on the Guest Website: DariusForoux.com ; Twitter: @DariusForoux ; Instagram: @DariusForoux ; YouTube: @DariusForoux . Not investment advice.…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

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US Economy Too Strong for Fed, Where to Invest Now: Leo Schmidt, River Eddy Capital 50:17

for 38 weeks siden50:17

50:17

Leo Schmidt, founder of family office River Eddy Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on economy, markets, and where to invest capital in what may be a 'stagflation lite' environment. This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, June 7, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following Monday. Visit the Substack or Supercast for more information about premium subscriptions. Content Highlights "Labor markets are way too hot." There will be "no landing" (1:48); Non-farm payrolls came out much stronger than anticipated. What this says about the labor market (4:59); 'Stagflation lite' (8:31); Our views of credit creation are outdated. The shadow banking system has replaced commercial banks as the primary source of credit. What this means (11:59); The Federal Reserve probably needs to cut rates. Could they? Probably not -- this year (22:21); What does an investor do now? First up: Stocks that are AI/Nvidia (NVDA) plays. Celestica (CLS), Flex (FLEX), Sanmina (SANM), Jabil (JBL) (27:51); Pharma spin-outs: Haleon (HLN), Kenvue (KVUE), Organon (OGN), Viatris (VTRS) (31:54); Dollar stores, especially Dollar Tree (DLTR), are poised to outperform once there is an economic slowdown (39:07); The bullish case for pipeline companies (46:59).…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

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Stock Market Expectations Getting Ahead of Economic Realities: Bob Elliott, Unlimited 44:21

for 40 weeks siden44:21

44:21

Bob Elliott of Unlimited rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism that may not be based on economic realities... This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 28, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack . Content Highlights Stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism. Just how unrealistic is that? (1:19); What is there to indicate the economy could slow this year or even next? (4:34); A recession may be years away rather than months under current conditions. But conditions, as we know, can change quickly... (8:58); There is a precedence to interest rates going up dramatically without it causing an immediate and dramatic entrenchment in economic growth (11:52); Tech stocks might be overvalued but comparisons to the dot-com bubble are unfair and inaccurate -- and may preclude a spectacular bust (16:10); Today's economic expansion is income-driven. Not a result of credit expansion (18:13); What kinds of indicators should investors study to spot a slowdown in this particular type of economic activity? (30:45); Regional banks are for the most part fairly priced at present... (35:50). More Information on the Guest Website: UnlimitedFunds.com ; Twitter: @BoBEUnlimited ; YouTube: @BobEUnlimited.…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

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The Specter of Stagflation Still Looms: Ayesha Tariq 27:20

for 43 weeks siden27:20

27:20

Ayesha Tariq, founder of Macro Visor, rejoins the podcast to discuss her views on the economy, markets, and where investors should look for opportunities. This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 7 and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber . Content Highlights: The macro set-up and why people are talking about stagflation (1:56); The K-shaped economy and the damage being done (3:31); Fed Chair Jerome Powell claims there's no stag and no flation. Is he wrong? (It wouldn't be the first time) (8:50); Faced with this backdrop, what does one do as an investor? (13:03); China: There are still reasons to worry, even though the bleeding from the property market has abated a bit... (15:58); India: long term growth story. Also copper, oil, and Japan (17:11); The guest's favorite areas for opportunity right now: UK and India (21:07); A long-term concern is the fiscal situation in the US (22:00). For more about the guest, visit her firm's website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X .…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

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Trend-Following Strategies for the New World Order: Doug Greenig, Florin Court Capital 1:09:24

for 45 weeks siden1:09:24

1:09:24

This episode was recorded April 15, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or interruptions. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack page . Dr. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital joins the podcast to discuss his worldview -- one where the US is no longer the sole superpower -- the situation in the Middle East, US fiscal concerns, artificial intelligence, and trends in commodities. And of course how this all impacts his trading strategy. Content Highlights The world has undergone many changes with the US emerging as its lone superpower. That era is over (2:09); China is a legitimate competitor to the US. It's just having a bad moment due to the property market. But China is not going anywhere as an economic or military power (6:07); The guest's trend-following model trades 500 assets and seeks to capture medium-term changes. What he looks for to enter and exit trades (16:52); One trend is lower electricity prices in Europe (19:19); Populism and the latter stage of democratic government make for a potentially bearish outlook for US stocks (27:15); Background on the guest (41:04); Iran is still a force in the Middle East and beyond. Discussion of the weekend drone attack on Israel, which may have been an attempt at making a point (48:40); As Russia's economy illustrates, sanctions are hard to enforce. There may be inherent bias in many pro-Western analysis... (53:03); US fiscal problems are real. The guest says it has "something like five years" before this takes a serious toll. Artificial intelligence may postpone this however (55:45); Hypersonic missiles: One area where Russia and China have an edge over the US (57:45). More Information on the Guest LinkedIn ; Website: FlorinCourt.com .…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

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The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It's Positive: Enrique Abeyta, HX Research 50:14

for 48 weeks siden50:14

50:14

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 29, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the next trading day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit our substack . Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick -- and it's not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length. Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised. The guest's microphone setup is significantly better than the host's so don't get discouraged by the host sounding like he's hiding in a cave at the open. Content Highlights Trends are underrated. Many investors don't respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21); However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back -- as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24); On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30); When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same... (15:36); Contrarian take: there's no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00); Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54); Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20); One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51). More on the Guest Website: HXResearch.net ; Twitter/X: @EnriqueAbeyta.…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

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Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History: Daniel Peris 52:01

for 49 weeks siden52:01

52:01

This podcast was released for premium subscribers on March 20, 2024. For more information on premium subscriptions please visit our Substack . Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows. Note: The host's mic was a little 'stuffy' for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear! Content Highlights Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55); No, this isn't about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22); Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder... (18:30) Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37); Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33); What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40). More on the Guest Website: StrategicDividendInvestor.com ; Twitter: @HistoryInvestor ; Order the book .…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

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Lessons From Financial History: Mark Higgins 38:02

for 51 weeks siden38:02

38:02

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 1, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers on March 6. For more information on premium memberships visit our Substack . Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History , joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today's market environment. Content Highlights What period from the past compares closest to the one we're living through now? It's a combination of several... (1:56); The last time the US -- and Federal Reserve -- battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today's age... (4:36); The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04); Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51); Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost -- and risks (15:40); Decentralized currencies aren't new and in fact once characterized the US dollar -- and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn't end well... (18:06); Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05); Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator... (27:17); The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36); The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25). More From the Guest Website: EnlightenedInvestor.com ; Order the book on Amazon.com ; LinkedIn: @MarkHiggins .…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

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Time to Get Defensive, Avoid 'Magnificent 7' Tech Stocks: Ted Oakley, Oxbow Advisors 39:44

for 1 year siden39:44

39:44

This podcast was recorded on Feb. 15, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads, natch). For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack or Supercast . Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one's portfolio. Content Highlights The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47); "There are things that people don't see" (or at least don't publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08); One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59); Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head... (6:05); Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22); Oxbow has been invested in 'Magnificent 7' stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently... (10:48); Background on the guest (23:07); What previous period in investment history is today's market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer... (29:32). More from the guest Website: OxbowAdvisors.com ; Twitter: @Oxbow_Advisors ; YouTube ; LinkedIn: Oxbow_Advisors .…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

1
US Economic Outlook 'Surprisingly Optimistic': Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust Co. 45:03

for 1 year siden45:03

45:03

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his "surprisingly optimistic" outlook for the US economy in 2024. This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages. Content Highlights The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30); The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39); Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps... (6:35); The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren't rate cuts right away (10:05); How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US... (17:01); Commercial real estate is 'the canary in the coal mine' but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008... (24:36); The guest's take on the impact of this year's US presidential election (28:15); Top concerns start with deficit spending... (33:23); An economist's take on the AI revolution (39:28). More on the Guest Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com ; Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

1
Markets Face Headwinds in First Half of 2024: Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics 52:56

for 1 year siden52:56

52:56

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it's very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast . Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024. Content Highlights Knapp's outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period... (3:29); Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00); The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57); How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March... (11:36); Why bonds haven't continued to rally this year (16:58); The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06); Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change... (28:35); Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions... (36:40); How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31) More About the Guest Website and newsletter: IronsidesMacro.substack.com ; Twitter: @BarryKnapp.…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

1
Risks Point to Downside in 2024: Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin 43:44

for 1 year siden43:44

43:44

This podcast episode was recorded Dec. 20, 2023 and made available exclusively -- without ads or announcements -- for premium subscribers that same day. This is just one of the benefits of becoming a premium subscriber. The others are detailed on our Supercast or Substack pages. Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, re-joins the podcast to discuss his views going into 2024 and the likelihood there won't be a 'soft landing' for the economy next year. Content Highlights Consensus estimates for 2024 are going to be wrong, just like they were for this year and every year before it (2:12); Coming in to this year the banking sector was a concern, though as it turned out for the wrong reasons (4:39); The catalyst for the reversal this fall and the new, dovish Fed (7:26); The contrarian call is that they're won't be a soft landing -- or a stock market crash (11:44); Possible explanation for the 'Fed pivot' (16:48); How the guest is allocating assets going into 2024 (23:56); Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussion (29:02). More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin: Website: Centerfin.co ; Twitter: @WallStHobbes ; LinkedIn page ; Facebook: CenterfinHQ ; Instagram: @CenterfinHQ . This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

1
Short-Term Treasuries the Place to Be: Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap 40:08

for 1 year siden40:08

40:08

This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 29, 2023 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast . Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirt Nap joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also discusses his work as an author and views on disparate issues facing society. Note: The podcast episode contains some mature language. Content Highlights The 'soft landing' scenario appears to have become the base case. Dillian doesn't quite buy that (1:37); To be bullish on short-term Treasuries one needs to believe the Fed is going to cut rates. That is imminent (4:26); Addressing the inflation bogeyman. The risk has maybe receded over the short term, but what about a return over the medium term? There is historical precedent for this from the last time inflation was a serious force in the US... (9:37); Background on the guest and a broad discussion of his time at Lehman Brothers (including its downfall), working on Wall Street, career paths, education, and more...(15:48) More on the Guest Website: DailyDirtNap.com ; Twitter: @DailyDirtNap ; Facebook: JaredDillianAuthor ; Pre-order his book on Amazon . Mention this podcast for a generous discount on the Daily Dirt Nap!…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

1
Opportunities in Emerging, Frontier Markets: Kevin T. Carter, EMQQ Global 58:05

for 1 year siden58:05

58:05

This podcast episode was recorded on Nov. 15, 2023 and released to premium subscribers the following day --without ads. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast . Kevin T. Carter, founder and chief investment officer of EMQQ Global, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging and frontier market stocks. His first lesson: don't bother with the indexes. The real opportunities are to be found in individual stocks. Content Highlights The first issue with emerging market investing is the index. These do not accurately reflect the real opportunities (1:19); Individual stocks, especially of technology companies, have performed far better than the underlying index (6:25); There are three mega-trends that point to emerging markets growth over the long term (8:03); South America's E-commerce giant is not in any EM index. Neither is Brazilian digital bank Nu Holdings (15:14); A broad discussion of China, where things are not always as they appear in the western media... (19:22); Right now all eyes are on India. The story there is still in the early innings, but unfortunately options are limited for investors limited to US exchanges... (42:13); Other markets in South Asia also offer compelling opportunities. Especially Bangladesh (48:58). More Information on the Guest LinkedIn: TheKevinTCarter ; Website: EMQQGlobal.com .…

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

1
Opportunities in Credit Markets with Tom Carney, Weitz Investments 46:35

for 1 year siden46:35

46:35

This episode was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 26 without ads or announcements. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack or Supercast . Tom Carney, co-head of fixed-income at Weitz Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his (perhaps surprisingly) optimistic view of bond and credit markets. Content Highlights Carney's views on the bond market. Interest rates have created a much-improved, encouraging environment for investors (1:33); Opportunities include the non-corporate bond market, specifically the asset-backed securities market (5:38); The guest has a unique view into consumer lending. There are defaults, but not more than usual (10:37); Discussion of the mortgage-backed securities market. There too, defaults are not particularly prevalent (13:05); How big of a concern is the Fed? (24:25); Background on the guest (29:57); What about his concerns facing markets at present? (38:09). For more information on the guest, visit the website WeitzInvestments.com .…

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