Four Banks and the Dollar

Notes on the Week Ahead

On Tuesday, the Commerce Department will publish international trade data for August. The numbers will, undoubtedly, show a deficit – the U.S. has run a trade deficit every year since 1975. This, in turn, implies that the U.S. dollar exchange rate is too high – we buy everyone else’s stuff because it’s cheap; they don’t want to buy ours because it’s expensive. That being said, even as Americans have sent dollars overseas to buy goods and services, these dollars have returned to buy U.S. stocks and bonds, fueling a booming stock market and allowing the federal government to borrow relatively cheaply.