721: Commercial Real Estate Could Crash, But Are Everyday Investors Impacted


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A commercial real estate crash is looking more and more likely in 2023. Rising interest rates, compressed cap rates, and new inventory about to hit the market is making commercial real estate, and multifamily more specifically, look as unattractive as ever to a real estate investor. But with so much money still thrown at multifamily investments, are everyday investors going to get caught up in all the hysteria? Or is this merely an overhyped crash that won’t come to fruition for years to come?

Scott Trench, CEO of BiggerPockets and host of the BiggerPockets Money Podcast, has had suspicions about the multifamily space since mortgage rates began to spike. Now, he’s on the show to explain why a crash could happen, who it will affect, and what investors can do to prepare themselves. This is NOT a time to take on the high-stakes deals that were so prominent in 2020 and 2021. Scott gives his recommendations on what both passive and active investors can do to keep their wealth if and when a crash finally hits.

But that’s not all! We wouldn’t be talking about multifamily without Andrew Cushman and Matt Faircloth, two large multifamily investors who have decades of experience in the space. Andrew and Matt take questions from two BiggerPockets mentees, Philip and Danny, a couple of California-based investors trying to scale their multifamily portfolios. If you want to get into multifamily the right way or dodge a lousy deal, stick around!

In This Episode We Cover:

The commercial real estate crash and bad news for high-interest rate investors

Cap rate compression, rent stagnation, and red flags for the multifamily market

Recommendations for both active and passive multifamily investors

How to vet a real estate syndication deal when raising private capital

Scaling from small to large multifamily and why the jump is easier than you think

Cash flow vs. appreciation and which is a better bet if valuations start to tank

Balloon payments, adjustable-rate mortgages, and risky financing options putting new investors in a tough spot

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Find an Investor-Friendly Real Estate Agent

BiggerPockets Youtube Channel

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BiggerPockets Pro Membership

BiggerPockets Bookstore

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BiggerPockets Podcast

BiggerPockets Merch

Listen to All Your Favorite BiggerPockets Podcasts in One Place

Learn About Real Estate, The Housing Market, and Money Management with The BiggerPockets Podcasts

Get More Deals Done with The BiggerPockets Investing Tools

Find a BiggerPockets Real Estate Meetup in Your Area

David's BiggerPockets Profile

David's Instagram

David’s YouTube Channel

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House Hacking 101—What It Is and How to Get Started

Your Debt-to-Income Ratio Can Make or Break Your Investing Career

On The Market Podcast 65 with Ben Miller

On The Market Podcast 71 with Brian Burke

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast 708

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast 719

Book Mentioned in the Show

The Hands-Off Investor by Brian Burke

Connect with Andrew, Matt, Dave, and Scott:

Andrew's BiggerPockets Profile

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Matt's BiggerPockets Profile

Scott's BiggerPockets Profile

Click here to check the full show notes: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-721

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