Another Quiet Summer Monday — Nick Santiago 7-24-23 #511

Daily Market Wisdom with Nick Santiago

1. The major indexes are starting out the day with a minor rally. Generally, Monday trading sessions in the summer are usually light volume buoyant days. That looks to be what we have today.
2. This coming Wednesday is the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision. This time around it looks as if the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points. This hike is baked into the cake already so the verbiage will be important.
Currently, the fed funds rate is around 5.0% - 5.25%. This is above the 2-year note yield which is currently at 4.85%. Should the 2-year yield catch up to the fed funds rate or surpass it then that is when the big problems come for the stock market. Right now, the markets seem convinced that the Fed will pause or even cut rates soon. I do not believe that will be the case if that 2-year yield spikes again.
3. Earnings season heats up this week. There will be earnings releases from MSFT, GOOG and META. Besides this mega-cap stock there are also lots of important names reporting. Buckle up! $TLSA has had an amazing run. Buy the rumor and sell the news just like AAPL
4. Natgas has turned the corner and heading to over $3. Daily and weekly charts are showing accumulation by the boys.
5. Gold is slightly higher this morning and silver is slightly lower. The US Dollar Index has caught a bid over the past week so that looks to have stalled out the precious metals run.
6. Bitcoin futures are selling off today trading lower by 2.2% to $29,210. It should be noted that the commercial money cut a huge portion of their long position. Now the commercial money is just slightly long vs short. This is a major change from last week's COT report. remember, the commercial money is always right at some point.