A Virtual RNC, Canada's New Conservative, and the Boomer Housing Apocalypse

Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the latest trends in Covid-19. In the US, we are starting to see a very gradual decline in deaths following a more significant month-long decline in cases. Weather is clearly a factor in the dropping infections. An outbreak abroad underlies several themes we have often spotlighted. On Aug 8, in a South Korean Starbucks, an infected person sat under an air conditioner and infected 66 people, all of whom weren't wearing masks. No one wearing a mask was infected. The incident points to the importance of (a) superspreaders, (b) aerosols, and (c) the efficacy of mask wearing.

In the US, economic indicators remain mixed. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell from 24.1 in July to 17.2 in August. This is the index's lowest reading in the last three months. Markit PMI flashes showed rises in both manufacturing (53.6) and services (54.8) for August. Though flash data typically reflect trends in the beginning of the month, and I suspect these numbers will fall with the final readings.

Upset election in Canada's Conservative Party. Erin O'Toole won an unexpected victory against party insider Peter MacKay in the Conservative Party's leadership race. O'Toole is a blue-collar veteran from Ontario. He ran a populist campaign attacking cancel culture and vowing to take back Ottawa from the radical left. At the same time, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau--0'Toole's adversary in any upcoming eleciton--is taking heat from an investigation into a possible ethics violation.

Israel and UAE establish formal relations. This is only the third Arab state (and only Gulf state) to form diplomatic relations with Israel. Other countries like Oman and Sudan are expected to follow the UAE's lead and form official ties with the government. The news was well received in Israel's financial sector, with the prospect of more open relations with Dubai.

Biden still in the lead. The former VP ended the DNC with a speech that focused on kindness, decency, and empathy. He also attacked Trump for his C19 response and the devastation to small businesses. This week the RNC kicked off with the GOP showcasing a diverse list of speakers from Nikki Haley to Senator Tim Scott. The speakers warned of the dangers of a Democratic president and took a noticeably darker tone than speakers at the DNC.

A new study predicts that millions of Boomers and Xers will struggle to sell their homes. I take listeners through the author's arguments and point out the paper's strengths and weakness. I do agree that the YoY growth rate in housing units over the next two decades will be lower than anything we have seen historically. But I do not agree that the slow demand growth will be entirely borne by single-family exurban and rural homes.
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