Trump’s Economy, Irish Nationalism, Goodbye Biden, Hello Sanders

Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe

3:00: Is all this bullishness related to Trump? A lot of it hinged on President Trump's extraordinary week from his acquittal to his State of the Union address to the Democratic mess in Iowa. The possibility of Trump's re-election this year suddenly ratcheted much higher. That's positive to a lot of global investors who like Trump. And it's even positive to a lot of investors who dislike Trump because it removes uncertainty.

12:35: Coronavirus remains worrisome. According to the official numbers, 43,000 are now infected, over 1,000 have died, and roughly 4,000 have recovered. The daily death toll continues to accelerate: Yesterday, it exceeded 100 in 24 hours for the first time. I'm confident these numbers are all gross underestimates. Even if the 1,000-fatality count is accurate, many health experts are pointing out that it is inconceivable that only 4,000 have recovered.

17:50: Leader of Germany’s CDU party stepped down. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) had long been regarded as the frontrunner to succeed Angela Markel. Her stepping down came after she had instructed CDU politicians in Thuringia not to vote for the Free Democrat candidate for that state’s local prime minister. The CDU members defied her wishes and joined the far-right Alternativ fur Deutschland party in electing the Free Democrat. The vote with the AFD shows the weakness of Merkel's successors in being able to keep the CDU unified.

20:20: In Dublin, the nationalist party, Sinn Fein, squeaked out a narrow victory. The party is best known for its IRA origins and for its steadfast advocacy of reunification with Northern Ireland. It marks an interesting challenge to UK PM Boris Johnson. He now faces the possibility of eventual exit referendums in both Northern Ireland and Scotland.

21:35: Joe Biden is in a downward tailspin. His poll numbers in New Hampshire have plummeted since his fourth-place finish in Iowa. Once his bubble of inevitability has been punctured, voters will be less motivated to support him in the South. What's more, he's running out of money and is being forced to choose where to cut his ad spend.

24:00: Bernie Sanders is closing in on the Democratic nomination. What does Bernie have going for him? He has authenticity and a fiercely loyal cadre of core supporters. He also has high support among the young and working class. And finally, Sanders has money. Who else could beat him? Pete Buttigieg can only survive if he has a strong finish in a few of these educated, affluent, and white Northeastern states. Bloomberg has unlimited funding. But all that money is likely to become a salient campaign issue--and not one that helps him.