035 | 2024美国大选结果初步分析 Takeaways on Trump's Win

美轮美换 The American Roulette

【聊了什么】

在总统大选中，特朗普预计将获得312张选举人票，战胜了获得226张选举人票的哈里斯，将成为第47任美国总统。同时，共和党获得了参议院的控制权，大概率也会赢下众议院。

我们和看理想在选举日第二天的早上进行了一场直播，对结果进行了简单的初步分析。这期播客是这场直播的剪辑版。

本期节目由美轮美换和看理想联合制作，欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372

也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。

合作投稿邮箱：[e-mail]

【时间轴】

00:58 本次大选结果有猜到吗？依据的是什么？

06:20 身处美国当地，哪个时间点预示特朗普胜选？有这个节点吗？

09:34 民主党的"崩盘"，是性别因素/阶层因素吗？

16:00 本次大选，在美普通民众的情绪如何？气氛怎样？

21:21 特朗普主义和特朗普是如何一步步走到今天的？特朗普与共和党，谁更有主导性？

27:01 马斯克对特朗普竞选真有帮助吗？

33:56 大选结果已出，那未来会如何：赴美更难？移民？战争走向？

38:39 若"三权皆红"，未来四年的局势会风起云涌吗?

43:44 "历史的上升，是螺旋性的；历史的前进像钟摆，偶尔往左也偶尔往右"

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

小华：媒体人

【 What We Talked About】

In the presidential election, Trump is projected to win 312 electoral votes, defeating Harris who received 226 electoral votes, and will become the 47th President of the United States. Meanwhile, the Republican Party has gained control of the Senate and is likely to win the House of Representatives as well.

We did a livestream with Vistopia the morning after Election Day, providing an initial analysis of the results. This podcast is an edited version of that livestream.

This episode is co-produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [e-mail]

【Timeline】

00:58 Did you anticipate this election outcome? What was your reasoning?

06:20 From your perspective in the US, was there a defining moment that signaled Trump's victory?

09:34 Is the Democratic Party's collapse attributed to gender or class factors?

16:00 What's the current mood and atmosphere among average Americans following this election?

21:21 How did Trump and Trumpism evolve to where they are today? Who holds more influence - Trump or the Republican Party?

27:01 Has Musk's support made a real impact on Trump's campaign?

33:56 With the results now in, what lies ahead: Changes in US policies? Immigration? Global conflicts?

38:39 With potential Republican control of all three branches, how turbulent will the next four years be?

43:44 "History moves in spirals; like a pendulum, swinging sometimes left, sometimes right"

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

【拓展链接】

https://theamericanroulette.com/2020-election-trump-win-analysis/

---

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助