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Innhold levert av NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie. Alt podcastinnhold, inkludert episoder, grafikk og podcastbeskrivelser, lastes opp og leveres direkte av NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie eller deres podcastplattformpartner. Hvis du tror at noen bruker det opphavsrettsbeskyttede verket ditt uten din tillatelse, kan du følge prosessen skissert her https://no.player.fm/legal.
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Manage episode 448838434 series 1400104
Innhold levert av NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie. Alt podcastinnhold, inkludert episoder, grafikk og podcastbeskrivelser, lastes opp og leveres direkte av NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie eller deres podcastplattformpartner. Hvis du tror at noen bruker det opphavsrettsbeskyttede verket ditt uten din tillatelse, kan du følge prosessen skissert her https://no.player.fm/legal.
Thursday 7th November 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
There is a Trump trade after all, and we just saw it. The US dollar rising, bond yields in the US pushing higher, US equities higher at the expense of equity markets elsewhere. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market response to the US Presidential election news. They discuss how it’s hit Europe and how it could prompt a domestic focus on China’s stimulus, which is expected to be announced on Friday. Meanwhile, will the news have any impact on the Fed and Bank of England, both meeting in the next 24 hours. Not this time round says Gavin, but there’s no doubt Trump’s promise of further tax cuts could have an impact on the terminal rate in the US.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
1317 episoder
Manage episode 448838434 series 1400104
Innhold levert av NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie. Alt podcastinnhold, inkludert episoder, grafikk og podcastbeskrivelser, lastes opp og leveres direkte av NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie eller deres podcastplattformpartner. Hvis du tror at noen bruker det opphavsrettsbeskyttede verket ditt uten din tillatelse, kan du følge prosessen skissert her https://no.player.fm/legal.
Thursday 7th November 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
There is a Trump trade after all, and we just saw it. The US dollar rising, bond yields in the US pushing higher, US equities higher at the expense of equity markets elsewhere. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market response to the US Presidential election news. They discuss how it’s hit Europe and how it could prompt a domestic focus on China’s stimulus, which is expected to be announced on Friday. Meanwhile, will the news have any impact on the Fed and Bank of England, both meeting in the next 24 hours. Not this time round says Gavin, but there’s no doubt Trump’s promise of further tax cuts could have an impact on the terminal rate in the US.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
1317 episoder
Alle episoder
×1 Taking stock of AI, central banks, tariffs and Aussie inflation 14:54
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14:54Wednesday 29th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US tech stocks regained some of their losses yesterday, and bond yields are back up today. Why? Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether the Deepseek fears were overblown. Taylor doesn’t think so, and tech bosses will have to have a convincing story to tell as they announce earnings results later this week. Meanwhile the US dollar has gained some ground on speculation that US tariffs will start low, but increase steadily from month to month, but it remains a confusing picture with talk of greater tariffs for Canada and Mexico, Taiwanese chip components and Colombia. Today the focus will be on Aussie CPI and the rate announcements from the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Riksbank. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 28th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US investors are reassessing the value of US AI related stocks on the realisation that China might have found a solution that can learn faster, at a lower cost, with less energy needs-and is available for all to share and use. If it lives up to the hyped it is a full-on assault on the concept of American exceptionalism led by AI and tech. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, President Trump has to respond, given the support he has been receiving from tech billionaires in the run up to the election, and since. The market response has beena move to bonds, and a rise in safe heaven currencies, like the Yen. It provides a lively start to a week that includes a number of tech earning’s results (and calls), alongside the fed and ECB meetings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 24th January 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Telcos, like Telstra and Optus, have been forced to change a lot over recent years. Their traditional revenues – providing phone calls and text messages – are disappearing, replaced by data access. But even that faces pressures, as people’s data demands increase at a faster rate than their willingness to pay. Luke Coleman, the newly appointed CEO of the industry body The Communications Alliance describes to Phil how telcos are changing. The major online providers, like Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, need an increasing amount of resilient, reliable data storage and processing power. Telcos have an increasing role in providing these centres, or, at the very least, the high speed fibre connections between these centres. As Luke explains, it’s growing, it has to stay on-shore, and continues to provide an opportunity for Australian investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 Donald at Davos – lower oil prices and interest rates please 14:29
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14:29Friday 24th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Strickland says he was much more conciliatory concerning his relationship with China, whilst reiterating that companies the world over have a choice to produce goods in America, at the world’s lowest tax rates, or face tariffs on exports into America. He also asked OPEC to reduce oil prices, which did lower prices for a short while, but didn’t hold. There’s also discussion about the Norgesbank on the podcast today, who find themselves in a very similar position to the RBA, and the global PMIs today, possibly reinforcing the case of America exceptionalism. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 23rd January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There weren’t massive moves in any asset classes overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says bonds were range bound with very little in the way of data, and nothing concrete from any of President Trump’s more contentious plans, particularly tariffs. It seems a review of trade will be completed on April 1st, so we could face several months of speculation before details firm up, meanwhile tech stocks have done well, in part because of strong earnings, such as Netflix after the close yesterday, as well as Trump’s proposed AI Masterplan. It’s second tier data today and tomorrow night, including Canadian retail sales and the US weekly jobless claims numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 22nd January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s the first full day for Donald Trump in the White House and markets are already assuming tariffs will take a bit of time and perhaps won’t be as pervasive as he was initially letting on. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the market response, which has assumed, ultimately, there will be a less radical approach to trade, with tariffs used as a leverage for a better trade balance. For Europe, for example, that could mean buying more energy and defence. On his counter to inflation, through a program of ‘drill baby drill’ Gavin doubts the US oil and gas industry will be that keen on upping production and seeing prices lowered. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 21st January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Donald Trump is now the US President again. At his inauguration speech, on what he called Liberation Day, he outlined a slew of Executive Orders that he will sign in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says hours ahead of the inauguration the Wall Street Journal published a suggestion that tariffs might not be implemented from day one. That doesn’t mean they are off the agenda, however. The new President talked of an External Revenue Service that will collect “massive amount of money” from foreign countries as part of an overhaul of the trade system, that will see consumers paying less tax on goods, instead the cost will be incurred by foreign companies through tariffs and taxes. Taylor and Phil talk through some of the other plans and schemes that the new President intends to enact. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 20th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US markets are closed today, so a quiet start to a potentially very volatile week, depending on what executive orders the new President issues in his first week in The White House. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was a reaction in the US dollar to a social media comment from Trump that a call with President Xi had gone well. There’s also been speculation in the Wall Street Journal about how China will respond to hefty tariffs, if imposed. If the response is to oversee the weakening of the Chinese currency, what impact will that have on the Aussie? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 Weekend Edition: The Lowdown on High Employment 30:28
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30:28Friday 17th January 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The ABS Labour Market data showed a strong rise in the number of people employed in Australia. The unemployment rate at 4 percent is where it was a year ago, but more people have joined the workforce. So, why are more people taking on jobs? Phil talks to Bjorn Jarvis, branch head for Labour Statistics at the ABS. He provides some useful answers about who these new workers are and the perplexity about why Australia has a higher participation rate than many other countries. He provides some useful insights, but naturally steers away from the question everyone has - is this low level of unemployment and high participation inflationary? And, after a year around 4 percent, is there anything to suggest the unemployment rate will tick higher anytime soon? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 17th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets responded to a more dovish stance taken by the Fed’s Chrsitopher Waller, interviewed on CNBC. There was also some reassurance from the confirmation hearing into the intended Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he said exactly what markets wanted to hear, including his commitment to the independence of the Fed. Whilst strong retail data in the US supports the case for an economy doing well, UK GDP growth has stalled and the ECB minutes highlighted that monetary policy might be too aggressive in light of slow economic growth, that could cause an undershoot inflation targeting. There’s also discussion about yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and what the resilience means for the direction of the RBA. And today we find out whether China hit their 5% growth target last year, alongside a number of economic indicators. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 16th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The biggest news this morning, the ceasefire in the Middle East, has had virtually no market response. Instead, bonds and equities have rallied on the positive CPI news from the US overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the softer number has increased the prospect of more than one cut from the Fed this year. Bond yields have fallen markedly on both sides of the Atlantic. Today Australian’s employment data will be the key area of focus, particularly after the surprise fall in the unemployment rate last time. Will today’s data lead the RBA to conclude the labour market is too tight, or will they adjust their view of where the non-inflationary rate is? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 US dollar stalls, the Tariff drip feed, markets await CPI 19:24
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19:24Wednesday 15th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are holding out for today’s US CPI print, but JBWere’s Sally Auld says its unlikely to move the dial much on the timing of Fed rate moves. The US dollar is weaker, for once, perhaps because of reports that Donald Trump will drip-feed tariff increases to help contain inflationary impacts. He is, meanwhile, talking up his policy on energy dominance from day one. There’s also discussion on Australian consumer confidence, Chinas credit data, US and NZ business confidence – they couldn’t be further apart – and the plethora of Fed speakers getting their oar in today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 Dollar up again, yields rising - but why? 16:19
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16:19Tuesday 14th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to rise. Bond yields are also pushing higher. How long can this continue for? How much is because of rising concerns about persistent inflation, and how much is priced in for Trump uncertainty? If it’s the latter, could some of these moves quickly unwind, particularly if the new president’s bark is worse than his bite? All questions Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on today’s podcast, plus the rising price of oil, trade data from China and the latest take-outs from speakers from the ECB, BoJ and the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 Year kicks off with rising inflation concerns 16:57
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16:57Monday 13th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil on the podcast this morning, where the inflation outlook is very different to where we were before Christmas. Ray says Fed-speak last week was already pushing back expectations for a rate cut in the US, then a much stronger than anticipated payrolls number of Friday reaffirmed those concerns. That’s pushed yields higher and weekend equities, whilst the US dollar continues to rise, at the expense of all other major currencies. With US inflation data this week, prepare for a choppy one. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 Weekend Edition: The Year That Was, and the Year That Will Be 40:50
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40:50Friday 20th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a year of surprises. US exceptionalism has long been talked about, but this year it particularly exceptional, particularly in relation to the rest of the world. Growth has picked up, the dollar has strengthened, and the share market has repeatedly hit new highs, driven by Trump, tech and the AI revolution. So, what does 2025 have in store? The entire NAB Morning Call team - Sally, Skye, Ray, Rodrigo, Gavin, Tapas, Taylor and Ken - join Phil to crystal ball gaze on 2025. Will Trump push ahead with his tariff threat? What will that mean for international trade? Will China manage to find the ways and means to stimulate its domestic economy and, it not, what’s the impact on the CNY and the Aussie dollar? Could the Aussie fall below 60 US cents next year? They also discuss the path of central banks next year. Speculation has been rife this year about who will cut when and by how far. There’s no clear agreement on the neutral rate that each bank is striving for. Does that mean we’ll see smaller movement in bond market. A myriad of questions tackled in this special 40-minute episode, the final Morning Call of 2024. We’re back on January 13th, by the way. Usual time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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