The Investment Implications of the Migration Surge

Notes on the Week Ahead

In last week’s article and podcast, I looked at the potential path for the U.S. economy over the next two years, noting that the outlook suggested a very tight labor market throughout. This would be a generally healthy outcome for the country, boosting economic growth and productivity and supporting solid wage growth. To the extent that it maintained pressure on profit margins and limited monetary easing, it would be less favorable for investors. However, a number of readers asked the very reasonable question of whether my analysis took account of the recent migration surge at our southern border.