RBA faces tough choice with new CPI data: credibility or persistent inflation?

Proactive - Interviews for investors

Today's CPI data may force the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to choose between maintaining credibility and addressing persistent inflation. Joining Jonathan Jackson in the Proactive studio to talk about potential outcomes is StoneX vice president – Derivatives, Everett O’Chee. In its June policy update, the RBA board committed to achieving its inflation target with Michelle Bullock emphasising the need for favourable conditions to reach the 2-3% range. Recent trimmed mean inflation rates were 1.2%, 0.8% and 1%, totalling 3%. A quarterly rate above 0.8% would surpass the RBA's forecast of 3.8% for June 2024. A trimmed mean inflation rate of 1% or higher could necessitate a 25 basis point hike to uphold the RBA's anti-inflation stance. Further hikes may be needed, as a 100bp increase in the cash rate only reduces trimmed mean inflation by 0.20%, according to the RBA's MARTIN model. Inflation has remained high with monthly trimmed mean rates around 4% since December 2023, rising to 4.4% in May. The RBA also faces challenges in maintaining independence from a government implementing tax cuts and fiscal stimulus. Compared to the US, UK and New Zealand, where rates are above 5%, Australia's peak rate is 4.35%, contributing to inflation rates comparable to developing countries. With an annualised trimmed mean inflation rate of 4.0% and a cash rate target of 4.35%, Australia's real rates are only 0.35%, insufficient to control inflation. The RBA is not yet ready to consider easing rates, unlike its developed market peers. Thus, Wednesday's CPI data is critical for the RBA's credibility ahead of the August 6 meeting. #ProactiveInvestors #StoneX #CPIData #RBA #Inflation #EconomicPolicy #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #AustraliaEconomy #FiscalStimulus #MichelleBullock #TrimmedMean #EconomicOutlook #RateHike #CentralBank #FinancialStability #GlobalEconomy #DevelopedMarkets #FiscalPolicy #EconomicForecast #MarketTrends #invest #investing #investment #investor #stockmarket #stocks #stock #stockmarketnews