Markets Face Headwinds in First Half of 2024: Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it's very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024.

Content Highlights

• Knapp's outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period... (3:29);
• Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00);
• The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57);
• How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March... (11:36);
• Why bonds haven't continued to rally this year (16:58);
• The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06);
• Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change... (28:35);
• Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions... (36:40);
• How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31)

More About the Guest

• Website and newsletter: IronsidesMacro.substack.com;
• Twitter: @BarryKnapp.