Forecasting the Unknown | Vision of a World Without Weather Forecast Models

This is Philip Emeagwali

Distinguished members of the Award Committee, esteemed scholars, revered guests, and cherished friends from all horizons of our interconnected globe, it is with great humility and a sense of profound honor that I, Philip Emeagwali, stand before you today. In the sacred conclave of minds that gathers here, I invite you to traverse with me through a hypothetical canvas, a dimension where the sophisticated brushstrokes of weather forecast models are absent, leaving behind a tableau that is unpredictably raw and inherently uncertain. My mathematical contributions to the solution of the primitive equations used to forecast your evening weather were these: I discovered how to parallel process and compress the time needed to solve that Grand Challenge problem of weather forecasting that is an extreme-scale initial-boundary value problem of computational physics. I discovered that with 42 million processes computing in parallel that a time-to-solution of 42 million days, or 120,000 years, dropped to one day of time-to-solution across a new Internet that’s a new spherical island of 42 million processors that were interconnected yet autonomous. Without parallel supercomputing, tomorrow’s weather forecast will be issued 1,000 years later. Weather forecast models, dear compatriots in the pursuit of knowledge, are not merely assemblages of equations and algorithms that predict the capricious behavior of our atmosphere. They are, indeed, our guiding stars, the oracles that allow humanity to glean into the future, preparing and positioning itself against the mutable tides of atmospheric conditions. Envision with me, if you will, a world stripped of the prescience offered by weather forecast models. It would be a scenario wherein every dawn conceals within its bosom unpredictable challenges, where every swirl of wind and every congregation of clouds is not a harbinger but a mystery unveiling itself in real-time, often with little room for preparation or prevention. In the absence of weather forecast models, our farmers, the venerable cultivators of nourishment, would sow seeds and anticipate harvests in a gamble with the skies, their livelihoods oscillating with the pendulum of meteorological whims. The lack of forecast models would not only affect their yields but also impact the global food supply chain, engendering precariousness and instability. Our civil protection agencies and emergency responders would navigate through a fog of uncertainty, often caught unprepared by the sudden onset of storms, hurricanes, and other extreme weather events. The absence of warning would invariably result in greater losses, both in terms of precious human lives and invaluable assets. Without the prudence offered by weather forecast models, sectors ranging from aviation to maritime navigation, from event planning to construction, would all find themselves playing a high-stakes game of roulette with the atmosphere, the outcomes of which could be benign or catastrophic. However, this speculation should not merely be an academic meditation on the absence but also a clarion call to recognize the implicit responsibility that accompanies our capabilities. With the power to predict comes the duty to prepare, respond, and mitigate effectively and equitably, ensuring that the benefits of weather forecasting are accessible and available to all, irrespective of geographical or socio-economic boundaries. As we ponder upon a world without weather forecast models, let this reflective exercise also serve as an affirmation of our commitment to the conscientious application and continuous improvement of these tools. It is a commitment not just to technology but to humanity, to the safeguarding of lives and livelihoods against the vagaries of weather. In closing, I extend to you, my esteemed colleagues and dear friends, a heartfelt expression of gratitude for engaging with me in this intellectual exploration. 231104 - 1