Player FM - Internet Radio Done Right
80 subscribers
Checked 2d ago
Lagt til eight år siden
Innhold levert av NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie. Alt podcastinnhold, inkludert episoder, grafikk og podcastbeskrivelser, lastes opp og leveres direkte av NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie eller deres podcastplattformpartner. Hvis du tror at noen bruker det opphavsrettsbeskyttede verket ditt uten din tillatelse, kan du følge prosessen skissert her https://no.player.fm/legal.
Player FM - Podcast-app
Gå frakoblet med Player FM -appen!
Gå frakoblet med Player FM -appen!
Podcaster verdt å lytte til
SPONSET
E
Exile
![Exile podcast artwork](https://cdn.player.fm/images/41381904/series/JWqznqfJ6qlGsgub/32.jpg 32w, https://cdn.player.fm/images/41381904/series/JWqznqfJ6qlGsgub/64.jpg 64w, https://cdn.player.fm/images/41381904/series/JWqznqfJ6qlGsgub/128.jpg 128w, https://cdn.player.fm/images/41381904/series/JWqznqfJ6qlGsgub/256.jpg 256w, https://cdn.player.fm/images/41381904/series/JWqznqfJ6qlGsgub/512.jpg 512w)
![Exile podcast artwork](/static/images/64pixel.png)
1 Episode 21: The Heiress Who Helped End School Segregation 35:10
35:10
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt35:10![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Hilde Mosse comes from one of the wealthiest families in Berlin and stands to inherit an enormous fortune. But she longs for something more meaningful than the luxurious lifestyle her family provides. So Hilde decides to pursue her dream of becoming a doctor. As the Nazis take power in Germany and the Mosse family is forced to flee, Dr. Hilde Mosse lands in New York having nearly lost everything.. She finds her calling treating the mental health of Black youth – and the symptoms of a racist system. In addition to photographs, school records, and correspondence spanning Hilde Mosse’s entire lifetime, the Mosse Family Collection in the LBI Archives includes the diaries she kept between 1928 and 1934, from the ages of 16-22. Hilde’s papers are just part of the extensive holdings related to the Mosse Family at LBI. Learn more at lbi.org/hilde . Exile is a production of the Leo Baeck Institute, New York and Antica Productions. It’s narrated by Mandy Patinkin. This episode was written by Lauren Armstrong-Carter. Our executive producers are Laura Regehr, Rami Tzabar, Stuart Coxe, and Bernie Blum. Our producer is Emily Morantz. Research and translation by Isabella Kempf. Voice acting by Hannah Gelman. Sound design and audio mix by Philip Wilson. Theme music by Oliver Wickham. Please consider supporting the work of the Leo Baeck Institute with a tax-deductible contribution by visiting lbi.org/exile2025 . The entire team at Antica Productions and Leo Baeck Institute is deeply saddened by the passing of our Executive Producer, Bernie Blum. We would not have been able to tell these stories without Bernie's generous support. Bernie was also President Emeritus of LBI and Exile would not exist without his energetic and visionary leadership. We extend our condolences to his entire family. May his memory be a blessing. This episode of Exile is made possible in part by a grant from the Conference on Jewish Material Claims Against Germany, which is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Finance and the Foundation Remembrance, Responsibility and Future.…
Five central banks in the last gasp before Christmas
Manage episode 455649114 series 1400104
Innhold levert av NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie. Alt podcastinnhold, inkludert episoder, grafikk og podcastbeskrivelser, lastes opp og leveres direkte av NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie eller deres podcastplattformpartner. Hvis du tror at noen bruker det opphavsrettsbeskyttede verket ditt uten din tillatelse, kan du følge prosessen skissert her https://no.player.fm/legal.
Monday 16th December 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
The Fed and four other central banks meet this week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed and the Riksbank will cut rates, whilst the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Norges Bank will all keep rates on hold. Today PMIs are released, which are likely to show a widening gap between US exceptionalism and European gloom. France has a new Prime Minister and Moody’s joining the agencies downgrading their credit rating, assuming the government will be able to do very little to reduce debt in the short term.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
1332 episoder
Manage episode 455649114 series 1400104
Innhold levert av NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie. Alt podcastinnhold, inkludert episoder, grafikk og podcastbeskrivelser, lastes opp og leveres direkte av NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie eller deres podcastplattformpartner. Hvis du tror at noen bruker det opphavsrettsbeskyttede verket ditt uten din tillatelse, kan du følge prosessen skissert her https://no.player.fm/legal.
Monday 16th December 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
The Fed and four other central banks meet this week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed and the Riksbank will cut rates, whilst the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Norges Bank will all keep rates on hold. Today PMIs are released, which are likely to show a widening gap between US exceptionalism and European gloom. France has a new Prime Minister and Moody’s joining the agencies downgrading their credit rating, assuming the government will be able to do very little to reduce debt in the short term.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
1332 episoder
Alle episoder
×![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: The Irvine Fix: Simplicity, Productivity and Confidence 17:43
17:43
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:43![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week Phil talks with NAB's CEO, Andrew Irvine, discussing the uncertainty of international trade and the slow road to lower inflation. What impact does he think a global trade war (if it gets to that) could have on Australia? And what can we expect after the assumed RBA rate cut next week? The NAB chief has spent some time in Europe and talks through how our economic fundamentals stack up against the UK and Europe. Whilst Australia has many natural advantages, he points to the lack of productivity growth as the biggest issue we face. Confidence is also key he says, because that drives investment decisions. There’s also discussion about scam regulation. Phil points to the UK where banks are obliged (to an extent) to refund scam victims. Do we need the same approach or are there more significant ways of reducing the problem, particularly as AI threatens to make the issue worse. Listen in for Andrew Irvine’s take on the economy and the prospects for the year ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 14th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump has announced that his reciprocal tariffs could start as soon as April. The surprise has been that he is not just looking at the topline balance of trade. He considers a VAT imposed on American goods as an impost that needs to be countered. That could be bad news for the EU, the UK, Australia and other countries who have favoured indirect taxation higher income tax. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’ll be bad news from Europe, where shares rallied today on the hope that peace-deal for Ukraine will see energy costs come down. Meanwhile, US retail sales are out later, will this add to the watering down of American exceptionalism that we’ve seen this year? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weaker dollar, rising inflation, falling US shares. Not so rock n’ roll America. 16:22
16:22
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:22![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 13th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the Fed should lower interest rates to go hand in hand with tariffs, adding, “lets Rock and Roll, America!!!” It hasn’t unnerved Jerome Powell who was giving his testimony the House Economics Committee. His case for moving cautiously was evidenced by US inflation data which ticked unexpectedly higher hitting the dollar and US equities. JBWere’s Sally Auld says today is another day where markets have reversed their enthusiasm late last year for US exceptionalism. It was a strong day for the Euro and European equities, though, thanks to a positive phone call between Trump and Putin and hopes that the end is in sight for the Ukraine war. But, obviously, way too early to assume too much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 EU says ‘Back atcha!’ Is Australia exempt? 18:16
18:16
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:16![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 12th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Trump administration is pushing ahead with 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium. Australia still hopes it will be exempt, but there are no guarantees and, in any case, NAB’s Taylor Nugent argues there will be second-order impacts as the tariffs hit China. The EU meanwhile has promised swift retaliation, with the various trade ministers meeting today to map out their approach. Curiously, European equities are doing somewhat better than the US. The US dollar has also weakened, despite the President’s promise that the tariffs will make America rich again. The NAB Business Survey showed a slight rise in confidence, as business conditions softened. The latest small business survey in the US also back tracked a little. Today the main focus, apart from tariff news, is the latest setoff US CPI numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 11th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Tariffs could be back, with Donald Trump warning of 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the US. That would hit Mexico and Canada particularly hard, just as they thought they were off the hook (for now at least). But NAB’s Gavin Friend says there hasn’t been much more news on this since the President made the announcement on Sair Force One on Sunday. There’s some discussion about the three different classes of tariffs Trump could deploy and whether regions like Europe could be in the firing line. Gavin suggests a string representation of the new US administration at events in Europe this week could be part of a fact-finding mission to guide policy. Meanwhile, markets are positively sanguine, as they wait the next chapter in Trump’s trade plan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 10th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today China’s retaliatory measures against the US take effect and it seems unlikely that the event will pass without comment and threats from the US President. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says Trump might also elaborate on his plans for other regions, such as the EU. Meanwhile jobs numbers from the US on Friday has pushed back expectations around the timing of cuts by the Fed, reinforced by a rise in inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey on Friday. Aside from tariff news it’s a relatively quiet week, although it’ll be interested to see how Jerome Powell faces two days of questions from parliamentarians this week, Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: 2025: Less growth, but still lots of opportunity 28:07
28:07
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt28:07![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 31st Janaury 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Last year was a stellar year for growth. Kylie Willment, chief investment officer at Mercer, says they provided a 14 percent return for their superfunds in2024. She highlights a number of opportunities for this year. including growth in private markets. But how will she weather the uncertainty of a Trump administration, where radical trade policies can be implemented quickly? Will Mercer be shying away from investments in areas likely to attract tariffs, like Europe for example? And is AI a technology that will continue to dominate? Do you invest more in it, or diversity away from it? Kylie says we can ‘t expect to see the same level of growth this year, but is she willing to have a stab in the dark and predict the sort of returns we could see?ase note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 7th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Non-farms payrolls data is released later today in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through some of this week’s other jobs-related data ahead of this key release. Meanwhile, good and bad news from the UK. The Bank of England cut rates by 25bp.Two members of the board wanted to go further. At the same time the bank cut its growth forecast and expects inflation to rise, extending the journey to their 2 percent target. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 6th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US President veered away from talking about trade today and there seems to have been little market response to his thoughts on the Middle East. Instead, the focus is on the Fed and the labour market. The ADP Employment Report showed a surprising rise in new jobs, but it doesn’t follow that it’ll be reflected in non-farm payrolls on Friday. It rarely is. NAB’s Gavin Friend points out that the latest ISM Services index has US growth at a similar rate to Germany. There have been a few Fed speakers out over the last 24 hours, and NAB’s Gavin Friend reflects on their musings, particularly in relation to potential tariffs. The immediate focus now is on the Bank of England, expected to cut rates tonight. Australia’s trade numbers are also out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Tariffs. Here yesterday, gone today. What about tomorrow? 15:34
15:34
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:34![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 6th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have responded favourably to the news that tariffs have not gone ahead against Mexico and Canada although there is still a chance that there will be measures taken in relation to both countries strong balance of trade. It's likely if that happens that the EU will also be embroiled in that potential trade war. Hence markets have been positive on the latest news but there is still evidently some caution around what happens next. It means there is an unclear path forward for inflation and monetary policy which NAB’s Skye Masters says explains why there has been very little response in bond markets to all the latest tariff news. There’s also a focus now on U.S. jobs with JOLTs showing a sharp fall in job openings,then the ADP numbers out tonight ahead of non-farm payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 5th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is Donald Trump’s bark worse than his bite? At the last moment President Trump has stalled tariffs on Mexico for a month to give them time to negotiate a deal. As yet, no similar reprieve for Canada but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, it has moderated the reaction, particularly in equities and FX markets. “Time to reread The Art of the Deal,” says Ray. Does this mean future proclamations are less solid? China, meanwhile, seems more conciliatory in its response, with the Wall Street Journal suggesting they want to return to a deal made in 2020 in which they promised to buy $200billion in US goods. At the time the President called it the “greatest deal ever made”. Will that be enough to pacify him this time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 4th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Now tariffs are real, well, they will be tomorrow, with 25% imposed by the US on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on those from China, do we need to rethink expectations for global growth, inflation and monetary policy? Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland how the evaluate their monetary policy approach in light of these changes. He also discusses the economic impacts on either side of thew US border. Tariffs aside, it’s a busy week with Australian retails sales today and USD payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Housing costs - it’s all a question of supply 30:31
30:31
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt30:31![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 31st Janaury 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . It doesn’t take a genius to work out that the high price of housing is a function of supply and demand. Supply just isn’t keeping up with the growth in the population. But is that the only reason? Phil presents some alternative theories to Peter Tulip, chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies. The availability of cheap credit, for example. Or government subsidies like the first-home buyer’s scheme. Peter argues these have all had little impact on long term prices, and it really does get down to supply and demand. He provides compelling evidence from home and overseas. Why this imbalance? NIMBYism? Perhaps the government's focus should be ondispelling the belief that more people mean worse local services. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 The ECB, the Fed one day on and the new path for the RBA 17:40
17:40
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:40![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 31st January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB cut rates as expected but, in line with other central banks lately, prefers not to map out their expectations for further cuts. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the market is fairly certain that more cuts will follow. Meanwhile, NAB has brought forward the timing of the next RBA cut - now expected in February. Ken explains why the bank has changed its tune. There’s also talk about the response to yesterday’s Fed meeting and tech earnings, why gold is so strong and why the Yen has been the biggest currency mover this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 30th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB What do the Fed, the Riksbank and the Bank of Canada all have in common? Well, they all just made rate policy announcements, but they have all refused to provide forward guidance, or even determine where inflation is heading. JB Were’s Sally Auld says there’s a lot more uncertainty beyond domestic fundamentals, US trade policy being a significant part of that. The Fed, for example, removed the statement from last time about continued disinflationary progress. It’s been a significant session, with the Fed followed by earnings from big tech players, including Microsoft, Meta and Tesla. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Taking stock of AI, central banks, tariffs and Aussie inflation 15:15
15:15
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:15![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 29th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US tech stocks regained some of their losses yesterday, and bond yields are back up today. Why? Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether the Deepseek fears were overblown. Taylor doesn’t think so, and tech bosses will have to have a convincing story to tell as they announce earnings results later this week. Meanwhile the US dollar has gained some ground on speculation that US tariffs will start low, but increase steadily from month to month, but it remains a confusing picture with talk of greater tariffs for Canada and Mexico, Taiwanese chip components and Colombia. Today the focus will be on Aussie CPI and the rate announcements from the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Riksbank. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 28th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US investors are reassessing the value of US AI related stocks on the realisation that China might have found a solution that can learn faster, at a lower cost, with less energy needs-and is available for all to share and use. If it lives up to the hyped it is a full-on assault on the concept of American exceptionalism led by AI and tech. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, President Trump has to respond, given the support he has been receiving from tech billionaires in the run up to the election, and since. The market response has beena move to bonds, and a rise in safe heaven currencies, like the Yen. It provides a lively start to a week that includes a number of tech earning’s results (and calls), alongside the fed and ECB meetings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 24th January 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Telcos, like Telstra and Optus, have been forced to change a lot over recent years. Their traditional revenues – providing phone calls and text messages – are disappearing, replaced by data access. But even that faces pressures, as people’s data demands increase at a faster rate than their willingness to pay. Luke Coleman, the newly appointed CEO of the industry body The Communications Alliance describes to Phil how telcos are changing. The major online providers, like Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, need an increasing amount of resilient, reliable data storage and processing power. Telcos have an increasing role in providing these centres, or, at the very least, the high speed fibre connections between these centres. As Luke explains, it’s growing, it has to stay on-shore, and continues to provide an opportunity for Australian investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Donald at Davos – lower oil prices and interest rates please 14:29
14:29
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:29![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 24th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Strickland says he was much more conciliatory concerning his relationship with China, whilst reiterating that companies the world over have a choice to produce goods in America, at the world’s lowest tax rates, or face tariffs on exports into America. He also asked OPEC to reduce oil prices, which did lower prices for a short while, but didn’t hold. There’s also discussion about the Norgesbank on the podcast today, who find themselves in a very similar position to the RBA, and the global PMIs today, possibly reinforcing the case of America exceptionalism. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 23rd January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There weren’t massive moves in any asset classes overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says bonds were range bound with very little in the way of data, and nothing concrete from any of President Trump’s more contentious plans, particularly tariffs. It seems a review of trade will be completed on April 1st, so we could face several months of speculation before details firm up, meanwhile tech stocks have done well, in part because of strong earnings, such as Netflix after the close yesterday, as well as Trump’s proposed AI Masterplan. It’s second tier data today and tomorrow night, including Canadian retail sales and the US weekly jobless claims numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 22nd January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s the first full day for Donald Trump in the White House and markets are already assuming tariffs will take a bit of time and perhaps won’t be as pervasive as he was initially letting on. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the market response, which has assumed, ultimately, there will be a less radical approach to trade, with tariffs used as a leverage for a better trade balance. For Europe, for example, that could mean buying more energy and defence. On his counter to inflation, through a program of ‘drill baby drill’ Gavin doubts the US oil and gas industry will be that keen on upping production and seeing prices lowered. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 21st January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Donald Trump is now the US President again. At his inauguration speech, on what he called Liberation Day, he outlined a slew of Executive Orders that he will sign in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says hours ahead of the inauguration the Wall Street Journal published a suggestion that tariffs might not be implemented from day one. That doesn’t mean they are off the agenda, however. The new President talked of an External Revenue Service that will collect “massive amount of money” from foreign countries as part of an overhaul of the trade system, that will see consumers paying less tax on goods, instead the cost will be incurred by foreign companies through tariffs and taxes. Taylor and Phil talk through some of the other plans and schemes that the new President intends to enact. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 20th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US markets are closed today, so a quiet start to a potentially very volatile week, depending on what executive orders the new President issues in his first week in The White House. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was a reaction in the US dollar to a social media comment from Trump that a call with President Xi had gone well. There’s also been speculation in the Wall Street Journal about how China will respond to hefty tariffs, if imposed. If the response is to oversee the weakening of the Chinese currency, what impact will that have on the Aussie? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: The Lowdown on High Employment 30:28
30:28
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt30:28![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 17th January 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The ABS Labour Market data showed a strong rise in the number of people employed in Australia. The unemployment rate at 4 percent is where it was a year ago, but more people have joined the workforce. So, why are more people taking on jobs? Phil talks to Bjorn Jarvis, branch head for Labour Statistics at the ABS. He provides some useful answers about who these new workers are and the perplexity about why Australia has a higher participation rate than many other countries. He provides some useful insights, but naturally steers away from the question everyone has - is this low level of unemployment and high participation inflationary? And, after a year around 4 percent, is there anything to suggest the unemployment rate will tick higher anytime soon? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 17th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets responded to a more dovish stance taken by the Fed’s Chrsitopher Waller, interviewed on CNBC. There was also some reassurance from the confirmation hearing into the intended Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he said exactly what markets wanted to hear, including his commitment to the independence of the Fed. Whilst strong retail data in the US supports the case for an economy doing well, UK GDP growth has stalled and the ECB minutes highlighted that monetary policy might be too aggressive in light of slow economic growth, that could cause an undershoot inflation targeting. There’s also discussion about yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and what the resilience means for the direction of the RBA. And today we find out whether China hit their 5% growth target last year, alongside a number of economic indicators. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 16th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The biggest news this morning, the ceasefire in the Middle East, has had virtually no market response. Instead, bonds and equities have rallied on the positive CPI news from the US overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the softer number has increased the prospect of more than one cut from the Fed this year. Bond yields have fallen markedly on both sides of the Atlantic. Today Australian’s employment data will be the key area of focus, particularly after the surprise fall in the unemployment rate last time. Will today’s data lead the RBA to conclude the labour market is too tight, or will they adjust their view of where the non-inflationary rate is? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US dollar stalls, the Tariff drip feed, markets await CPI 19:24
19:24
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt19:24![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 15th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are holding out for today’s US CPI print, but JBWere’s Sally Auld says its unlikely to move the dial much on the timing of Fed rate moves. The US dollar is weaker, for once, perhaps because of reports that Donald Trump will drip-feed tariff increases to help contain inflationary impacts. He is, meanwhile, talking up his policy on energy dominance from day one. There’s also discussion on Australian consumer confidence, Chinas credit data, US and NZ business confidence – they couldn’t be further apart – and the plethora of Fed speakers getting their oar in today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Dollar up again, yields rising - but why? 16:19
16:19
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:19![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 14th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to rise. Bond yields are also pushing higher. How long can this continue for? How much is because of rising concerns about persistent inflation, and how much is priced in for Trump uncertainty? If it’s the latter, could some of these moves quickly unwind, particularly if the new president’s bark is worse than his bite? All questions Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on today’s podcast, plus the rising price of oil, trade data from China and the latest take-outs from speakers from the ECB, BoJ and the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Year kicks off with rising inflation concerns 16:57
16:57
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:57![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 13th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil on the podcast this morning, where the inflation outlook is very different to where we were before Christmas. Ray says Fed-speak last week was already pushing back expectations for a rate cut in the US, then a much stronger than anticipated payrolls number of Friday reaffirmed those concerns. That’s pushed yields higher and weekend equities, whilst the US dollar continues to rise, at the expense of all other major currencies. With US inflation data this week, prepare for a choppy one. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: The Year That Was, and the Year That Will Be 40:50
40:50
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt40:50![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 20th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a year of surprises. US exceptionalism has long been talked about, but this year it particularly exceptional, particularly in relation to the rest of the world. Growth has picked up, the dollar has strengthened, and the share market has repeatedly hit new highs, driven by Trump, tech and the AI revolution. So, what does 2025 have in store? The entire NAB Morning Call team - Sally, Skye, Ray, Rodrigo, Gavin, Tapas, Taylor and Ken - join Phil to crystal ball gaze on 2025. Will Trump push ahead with his tariff threat? What will that mean for international trade? Will China manage to find the ways and means to stimulate its domestic economy and, it not, what’s the impact on the CNY and the Aussie dollar? Could the Aussie fall below 60 US cents next year? They also discuss the path of central banks next year. Speculation has been rife this year about who will cut when and by how far. There’s no clear agreement on the neutral rate that each bank is striving for. Does that mean we’ll see smaller movement in bond market. A myriad of questions tackled in this special 40-minute episode, the final Morning Call of 2024. We’re back on January 13th, by the way. Usual time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 The Fed Flow-Through and the Banks since. 15:44
15:44
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:44![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 20th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As we recovered in the later editions of the Morning Call yesterday there was a strong market response to the Fed yesterday -from the statement and the press conference. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, there’s been a slight reversal in equity markets today, but nothing significant, and the US dollar continues to push higher. Since then, the Bank of Japan has done as expected, but still managed to weaken the Yen, perhaps because some are now wondering whether a rate rise won’t happen until March. The Bank of England kept on hold, but with a divided board. The Norges Bank and Riksbank did as expected. Meanwhile a s surprise in yesterday’s New Zealand GDP. Good news or bad? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Hawkish cut, on the slow road to 3 percent 18:34
18:34
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:34![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 19th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed has cut interest rates as expected, and they have halved the number of cuts they expect next year. As NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, there was only one dissenter, wanting to keep rates on hold. That seems highly likely next time, as the Fed dot plot sees just two cuts next year, eventually aiming for an expected neutral rate close to 3 percent. Also, UK CPI didn’t surprise, and the Bank of England isn’t expected to either, keeping rates on hold, as inflationary pressures, though falling, remain high. The Bank of Japan also meets today. Another case of hold, but an expectation of a small rise early next year. And New Zealand’s economy is expected to show a second quarterly decline this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 UK wages push Gilts-Bund spread to historic levels 14:33
14:33
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:33![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 17th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were surprised overnight by the increased in UK wages. Alongside the weakness in European data lately, the yield spread between the UK and Germany is now at its highest level since the reunification of Germany in 1990. Other data was less surprising. US retail sales rose, but as much as many had anticipated. Canada’s inflation fell. Aussie consumer confidence was down a little, but not by much and after two months of solid growth. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the day’s news and looks ahead to the Fed meeting. What could surprise the markets this time tomorrow? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Better European service numbers, but US more so 17:55
17:55
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:55![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 16th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US growth continues to lead the way. The latest PMIs showed services growth for Europe and the UK, but not as much as the US. In all cases, though, there’s a fall in the manufacturing PMI. The US strength helped push equities higher - with new highs for the NASDAQ and S&P - and strengthened the US dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher. The data doesn’t stop flowing, even though it’s only a week till Christmas. UK employment data today might do little to influence the Bank of England this week, but if wages growth remains high it’ll support their reticence to cut too quickly. Australian consumer confidence is out today as well. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Five central banks in the last gasp before Christmas 16:47
16:47
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:47![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 16th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed and four other central banks meet this week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed and the Riksbank will cut rates, whilst the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Norges Bank will all keep rates on hold. Today PMIs are released, which are likely to show a widening gap between US exceptionalism and European gloom. France has a new Prime Minister and Moody’s joining the agencies downgrading their credit rating, assuming the government will be able to do very little to reduce debt in the short term. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Rate cuts will boost the Australian psyche, says NAB Chief 26:57
26:57
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt26:57![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 6th December 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Next year the Australian economy will see slow and measured improvement, according to NAB's CEO Andrew Irvine. It’ll be boosted, though, by the first rate cut, which Andrew says will have a significant impact on the psyche of businesses and consumers. In his first appearance on The Morning Call the NAB boss talks about housing affordability, productivity and how NAB will stand up against its competitors in the banking sector. He gives his views on where Australia will stand in five years’ time, the opportunities we need to engage with, and what’s holding the country back. In many cases he shares his observations of Australia in relation to Canada, a country he knows well. When it comes to productivity and housing, he thinks we can learn a few things. But he admits, the coffee is a lot better here. Join Phil talking to Andrew Irvine in his first at-length interview since taking the role. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 ECB cuts, SNB more so. And Australia’s unexpected unemployment fall. 17:55
17:55
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:55![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 13th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today, NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the market response to the unexpected fall in Australian unemployment numbers yesterday, with the drop most significant in Victoria. The Swiss National Bank provided another surprise, with a 50bp rate cut, with a 25bp cut from the ECB, accompanied by lacklustre growth forecasts for the next few years. Today, the RBA’s Sarah Hunter is speaking at a lunch in Adelaide, with a Q&A session where the media will undoubtedly ask about the fall in unemployment and how that impacts their rate cut trajectory. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 12th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities pushed higher today as US CPI provided no surprises, or any reason for the fed to deviate from their expected rate cut next week. The Bank of Canada managed a 50bp rate cut yesterday, but it’s likely that cuts will be less frequent and smaller now, as they try to find the neutral rate. The Swiss National Bank, managing an economy that suffered very little from the blight of inflation, could well engineer a 50bp cut today as well. Meanwhile, NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests the ECB, who are expected to cut again today, could move into stimulatory territory next year. Locally, all eyes will be on Australia’s employment data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 11th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have responded to what some have seen as a dovish pivot by the RBA, in the wording of their statement yesterday and the post-meeting press conference. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says there are still inflation concerns, hence NAB is sticking with its expectation that a cut probably won’t happen till May. Still, the Aussie and NZ dollars both took a hit yesterday and are still well down this morning. The US dollar, meanwhile, has been boosted by a sharp rise in small business sentiment in the latest NFIB survey. It’s clearly a Trump bounce. Will his delivery match expectations? And the second dove of Christmas? Well, presumably the Bank of Canada. You can’t get more dovish than a 50bp rate cut, which is what’s expected tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 10th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Beijing has announced more in the way of fiscal and monetary stimulus to get the Chinese economy back on its feet. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s still light on the detail, but it caught markets a little off-guard, with nothing expected till later in the week. The response was most pronounced in Chinese equities, but oil is also higher and so is the Australia and NZ dollars. Today the RBA is likely to announce that rates won’t budge, but the detail will come from the press conference that follows. The NAB Business Survey is also out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 9th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We can expect three central banks to cut rates this week, and one to hold steady. No surprises that the RBA is the one firmly expect to stand pat, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says a higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Canada saw pricing increase for a 50bpcut by the Bank of Canada this week. Friday’s US non-farm payrolls also increased slightly expectations for a 25bp cut by the Fed next week. US CPI numbers are out middle of the week, but Fed speakers won’t be able to comment with the pre-meeting lockdown in place. The Aussie dollar was the worst performer of the major currencies last week, in part because of Aussie GDP numbers, but also because of global geopolitical uncertainty. There’s even more of that now with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the unknown implications from of the power vacuum it creates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: With equities, is it a year for playing it safe at home? 29:16
29:16
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt29:16![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 6th December 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Have Australians who ignored the rise of the Magnificent Seven lost out? NAB’s Gemma Dale says they will have still done pretty well with Australian equities, which have performed better than many other parts of the world, like the UK and Europe, for example. But how will investors cope with the uncertainties of the next 12 months? How do you plan for Trump’s trade policies, subsequent changes to supply chains and the rising US dollar? How do you look for winners before they hit the big time? Or do you, as many Aussie investors tend to, simply look for opportunities and buy the dip. Phil talks to Gemma about the year we’ve been through for Australian equity investors and what the next year will bring. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 6th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US releases non-farm payrolls data later today, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says if anything is going to shift expectations for a cut by the Fed this month it will be the upcoming CPI data. Meanwhile words from Jerome Powell, that the economy was doing better than expected, can be added to the list of reasons for a pause in the new year. A new PM for France hasn’t been decided yet but will be in the next few days. The turmoil just adds to the European woes, with more lacklustre data over the last 24 hour. And OPEC+, as expected, has pushed back the increase in production and the length of the ramp in those increases. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 5th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australia’s growth numbers yesterday were a bit slower than most had expected, although in-line with NAB’s expectations. Nonetheless it was below consensus and NAB’s Gavin Friend says that was brought forward expectations for a rate cut, although that could easily slip back. The short-term impact has been a weaker Aussie dollar against a US dollar which itself falling after a downside surprise on the Services ISM read overnight. A rare bit of soft US economic data, says Gavin. As we pressed record today France was going to vote on the government’s no-confidence motion, whilst Jerome Powell was taking part in a panel discussion that markets have been holding out for. We cover off some of the early take-outs from both. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 4th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a hectic session for geopolitics but, as NAB’s Skye Masters discusses, it hasn’t had much impact on markets. There wasn’t much of a reaction to the imposition of martial law in Korea, which was shortly afterwards overturned by parliament, but placing a question mark over the political life of the President. France has it’s no-confidence vote today, but European uncertainty seems to be priced in. In the US markets paid more attention to the Fed’s Christopher Waller than the rise in job openings and quits. Tonight, Jerome Powell could seal-the-deal as far, as markets are concerned, for a December rate cut. Locally, Australian GDP is the key number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 15th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian unemployment numbers just don’t want to move. JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why NAB now expects a cut from the RBA to be delayed beyond the first quarter of 2025 and might not even happen next year at all. It’ll be interesting to hear the spin from Fed speakers in the US now, after lower-than-expected job claims and a higher than anticipated PPI. After a December cut could the resilience in the economy coupled with Trump policies, delay any further cuts. Plus a preview of our Weekend Edition with FT’s Martin Wolf. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Inflation in no hurry to come down, and neither is the US dollar 16:52
16:52
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:52![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 14th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to push higher, with the AUD one of the main casualties. The PBoC is also clearly concerned about the weakness on the CNY. It’s not just the dollar that is staying high - US inflation is taking a while to come down. The CPI number overnight was as expected, though markets seem to be reacting as though they are relieved it wasn’t higher. As a result, pricing for a December rate cut increased slightly. Locally, the Australian Wage price Index slowed a little more than expected, but not enough of a move to change the timing for the RBA. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss all this, plus all the rest of today’s market news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 13th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US markets continue to embrace the optimism of a pro-growth Trump presidency, even as equities back off their highs a little in this session. The US dollar, meanwhile, continues to strengthen and the latest Bank of America Global Fund Managers Survey shows investors exposure to equities has hit the highest level since 2013. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil today to talk through the latest US market action, as well as yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and Westpac Consumer Confidence Survey, both of which showed an uptick in sentiment. Today’s big number is US CPI, but can it really give us an idea of the direction of travel when so much depends on Trump’s policies early next year? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 12th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to rise, mid-cap equities are doing well, Bitcoin is pushing higher, so are Tesla shares. With little in the way of new data releases, and the US bond market closed for Veterans Day, most market moves relate to expectations on what Trump might do in his second Presidency. Phil asks if the moves are rational. It’s too early to be rational, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, but NAB has issued new FX forecasts based on the assumption that the new administration will quickly push ahead with its tariff promises. That means the Aussie dollar won’t reach 70 us cents next year, not helped by the deepening weakness in the Chinese economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday11th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets might be waiting for signs of the speed and magnitude of Trump’s expected import tariffs, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says businesses are already indicating their response - building up inventories in the US whilst they determine as they consider whether to move more production to the US. China’s stimulus underwhelmed on Friday, focusing on reducing local government debt rather than provided direct stimulus to businesses and consumers. It’s a busy week for Australian data, with labour market numbers out on Thursday and the wage price index for Q3 on Wednesday, plus the NAB Business Survey tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Are we moving fast enough to tackle Australia’s housing crisis? 27:30
27:30
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt27:30![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 8th November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australia faces a rising tide of homelessness as rents push higher, out of the reach of many lower income earners. According to Rebecca Pinkstone, chief executive of Homes NSW, in her state alone there are 57,000 people on the register, looking for a home. Rents in Sydney and surrounds are often considerably more than a state pension. Supply is a big part of the problem, with developers reluctant to commit to the growth required because they face rising material costs and skills shortages. Subsidising existing rental simply maintains the elevated prices for properties. And, as Phil points out, it’s not just low income earners hit by the housing crisis. Household sizes in Australia are well above those of comparable economies, as children wait longer to move out. Phil asks, is it just about supply? Or is it time to address the government policies that have elevated prices for decades? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 8th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed cut rates as expected today by 25bp, after the big 50bp cut last time. But there’s one more meeting scheduled before Christmas and JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are evenly split as to whether that’ll mean another cut this year. The message from the Fed today was that the risks are balanced when it comes to achieving their employment and inflation goals, but what about the elephant in the room? Will Trump’s agenda drive inflation higher and delay the speed of cuts. That seems to be happening in the UK, where the Bank of England cut rates as expected, but the impact of the budget could delay further cuts. One more this year seems unlikely. Today’s big news is likely to be the announcement on fiscal stimulus from China’s National People‘s Congress, most likely before the Sydney close says Sally. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 7th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There is a Trump trade after all, and we just saw it. The US dollar rising, bond yields in the US pushing higher, US equities higher at the expense of equity markets elsewhere. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market response to the US Presidential election news. They discuss how it’s hit Europe and how it could prompt a domestic focus on China’s stimulus, which is expected to be announced on Friday. Meanwhile, will the news have any impact on the Fed and Bank of England, both meeting in the next 24 hours. Not this time round says Gavin, but there’s no doubt Trump’s promise of further tax cuts could have an impact on the terminal rate in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 6th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Polls start closing in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says Virginia, which closes late morning Australia time, was called by Associated Press within 36 minutes last time. So, we could start to get a picture of how each candidate is faring by lunchtime today, even if the final outcome could take time – possibly weeks. Something else that could take longer than originally envisaged, a cut by the RBA. Australia’s approach with shallower hikes means there’s less rush to cut rates and February is looking a little less likely. Taylor talks through the points from yesterday’s RBA meeting. Plus, why today is an important one for New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 5th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have responded to a poll over the weekend which showed a swing in favour of Kamala Harris in Iowa. It was driven, apparently, by more older women expressing a preference. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Iowa isn’t normally considered a swing state, so there is the question about whether this could be replicated across the country. But we haven’t seen a massive unwinding of positions that you might associate with the Trump trade. The RBA meets today and there will be a lot of focus on what’s in and out of the statement, and whether there’s a more concerted effort to drive market expectations further back into mid-2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Jobs take back seat as election drives the markets 13:40
13:40
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:40![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 4th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Mid-morning Wednesday Australia time the polls close in the US and soon after, hopefully, the world will know the choice made from two very different political and economic agendas. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this uncertainty is showing through in the data. It’s been blamed for the fall in the US manufacturing index on Friday, for example. It perhaps also explains why there was a limited response to Friday’s non-farm payrolls data, which showed an unexpected contraction in employment growth. Also today, is NVIDIA about to overtake Apple as the highest valued company on the planet? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Has affordability finally hit home price growth? 26:02
26:02
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt26:02![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 1st November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australian house prices have defied logic. Core Logic’s Eliza Owen says when interest rates rise you should see asset prices come down. In theory. Yet the last rate rise, in November last year, coincided with a fresh record high in home values. Now homes in NSW have increased in value for 20 consecutive months. Until now. Today’s data, for October, shows the growth streak in Sydney has been broken. Eliza joins Phil to break down the detail on trends in home prices across the country. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US shares weaker on tech forecasts. UK markets judge budget. 17:20
17:20
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:20![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 1st November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Some big market moves overnight, with sharp falls in US equities. Markets are clearly not impressed with the forecasts that came with the strong earnings results this week. In the UK bond yields are markedly higher, particularly at the front end. NAB’s Skye Masters says there are concerns that the extra spending could boost inflation. The focus now is on tonight’s US jobs data, before a week that includes THAT election. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 31st October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were a few reasons for central banks to be cautious about the speed of the cuts to interest rates. Europe is growing a little faster than expected, whilst German inflation kicked back up a little. Whilst US GDP is weaker it is being held up by strong levels of consumption. Australia’s CPI didn’t surprise, so there’s no reason for the FRBA to change the expected path of rate cuts. And the UK Chancellor announced a budget high on tax hikes, but also higher on borrowing. What impact will that have on the Bank of England? NAB’s Gavin Friend interprets a day rich on data - not forgetting the latest tech earnings - which much more to come. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Jobs, growth, inflation and tech earnings. 15:29
15:29
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:29![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 30th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Something for everyone today. On the jobs front US openings are down, whilst unemployment in Japan fell. On growth we have the US GDP number today, after the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecast for Q3 was revised down. Europe’s GDP numbers are released today along with CPI for various European countries, and for the Eurozone as a whole, today and tomorrow. More significantly, Australia’s quarterly CPI read is released this morning. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether it’ll have much impact on the timing of cuts from the RBA. Then there’s the tech earnings - Alphabet today, Meta and Microsoft tomorrow, Apple the day after. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 3rd December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Will Marine Le Penne push all the way to bring down the Barnier government in France? She said on Monday she would support a n confidence vote in the government but, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, that would force a more constrained default budget, offering none of what her National Party has been fighting for. Markets are responding to the possibility of a French government collapse this week. Elsewhere, US ISM’s overnight showed the continued strength in the US economy, raising questions about why the need to rush into cuts. Markets are expecting that if there is a rate cut this month, it’ll almost certainly be followed by a pause. Plus, what can we take out from Australian data yesterday, including stronger retail sales. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 2nd December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US is back at work after a long Thanksgiving weekend for many, back just in time for the week of non-farm payroll and other US jobs data, ahead of the Fed this month. Retail sales numbers will be highlight for Australian data today, with NAB’s Tapas Strickland suggesting Friday’s business credit provided further evidence that the RBA’s rates are currently not restrictive, making cuts even less likely in the short term. Also, on Friday hotter than expected Tokyo CPI data could encourage the Bank of Japan to move faster on a rate hike. Plus, the latest download on Trump policies, threats and claims. And today could be decision day for the French budget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Return of the Japanese Carry Trade 24:34
24:34
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt24:34![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 29th November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . A weak Yen and low interest rates had been fuelling the Japanese Carry Trade, as retail investors – the Mrs Watanabes – prospered from higher returns overseas. They took a hit from the rising Yen in the third quarter of this year, but Harry Ishihara says they are back, just a little more cautious this time. Harry is a macro strategist for Macrobond and Japan Exchange Group. He talks to Phil about the importance of Japanese retail investors, the continued confidence in Japan’s future, with strong inward investment, and the challenges posed by the new Trump administration. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 29th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The message from the RBA continues to be that there is no rush to drop rates. NAB’s Tapas Strickland highlights a chart presented by Michelle Bullock last night, which showed Australia’s interest rate compared to other leading economies, relative to the expected nominal neutral rate. And the decision on how much and when will be made by a new group next year, as the board of the RBA splits in two, with one responsible purely for monetary policy decisions. Inflation in Germany has slowed a little, but probably not enough for the ECB to make a 50bp cut. Europe continues to be in a world of worry, particularly France, where 10-year yields momentarily fell below Greek yields for the first time ever. But good news for Americans, whose Thanksgiving dinner will have been a bit cheaper this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 28th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A weaker dollar, falling share prices and very light trade. It’s close to the end of the month and Thanksgiving today in the US. NAB’s Ken Crompton returns rto the Morning Call to give is take on the market moves overnight on the back of largely unsurprising data from the US. There’s also discussion about Gov Orr’s presser after yesterday’s 50bp cut for the RBNZ, suggesting another big cut might be due in February. It’s the opposite message coming from the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, suggesting there’s less room for cuts from the ECB. All eyes and ears will be on the RBA’s Michelle Bullock tonight, given she is never backwards incoming forward. Will she be Talking Turkey on Thanksgiving? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 27th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB No big surprises in the FOMC minutes out this morning, with the Fed saying it continues to be data dependent, and that could mean a pause, or faster cuts. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are still split on whether a cut will happen in December, just as there’s an outside chance the RBNZ will cut by 75bp this week. The two big news stories of the morning though – a likely ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, and announcements of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada from day one of the presidency. Will either actually come to pass? Or last long? The widening spread in bond yields between France and Germany demonstrates the heightening concerns over French politics, even though Germany is hardly the “poster child” says Sally. Meanwhile, the latest Consumer Confidence survey shows the US is in quite a good place right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 26th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have reversed their position a little for the first time since the US election results. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it reflects the response to Scott Benson as the likely new Treasury head, who is seen as a more moderate, safe pair of hands, who won’t impose blanket tariffs. That news has strengthened the Euro and helped the share price of US mid-caps who might have seen input prices rise if such a radical policy was imposed quickly. The day’s other positive news was the possibility of an Israel Hezbollah ceasefire. There’s nothing more concrete than positive words from the White House national security spokesperson, but it was enough to drive oil prices significantly lower. Rodrigo also tells us why tomorrows FOMC minutes will be particularly important, and why the latest NZ data won’t change the course of the RBNZ this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 25th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Friday highlighted the difference between US exceptionalism and European pessimism. NAB's Ray Attrill explains how PMIs were higher than expected in America, lower than anticipated for the EU. Phil asks how much of the difference is down to anticipated impacts of Trump’s tariff agenda? With political unrest there seems no easy way for Europe to dig itself out of the malaise, short of reading Mario Draghi’s growth proposals. They also talk about the moves in market expectations for rate cuts, for the US, UK and the ECB, as well as for the RBNZ this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 22nd November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The private credit market is growing in volume with no signs of abating. Brad Calleja, Executive Corporate Finance at NAB, says its difficult to put a precise figure on the size of the space because not all deals are visible, but it’s estimated globally at between $2 and $3 trillion. So, what is it and why is it growing so quickly? Brad explains that it is providing a vehicle for institutional funds, such as super funds, to achieve higher returns from higher risk, longer duration investments that sit outside the risk profiles of most banks. If that’s the case, what’s the role of a bank like NAB in private credit markets? Listen in to understand more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 22nd November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Are NVIDIA investors a bit like Oliver Twist? They want more. That’s the take of NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on the Morning Call. The data was all second tier and none of it changed market expectations around the Fed’s path of rate cuts. US jobless claims were down, but continued claims were up, suggesting employers are letting less people go, but at the same time are not recruiting more. Positive news on housing, which can be choppy, was offset by gloomy news in the Philly Fed manufacturing outlook. So, it was a mixed picture overnight. The upshot, we need more solid data to get a clearer picture. Meanwhile, in the uncertainty, Bitcoin careers closer to the $100k mark. And will the promise of Roast Turkey drive up shares next week- which often happens on Thanksgiving week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 21st November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s no been much in the way of data to give markets any direction. Ahead of the NVIDIA results equities were trading lower, with the US dollar up slightly, and no big moves in oil. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland why there wasn’t more of aa reaction to events in Eastern Europe, with Ukraine firing US and UK supplied missiles into Russian territory, and the US, Italy, Spain and Greece temporarily closing their embassies in Kyiv, fearing an imminent attack. Meanwhile, UK inflation was a little higher than expected, reducing further the chance of a pre-Christmas cut from the Bank of England. There’s also been a claim that labour data in the UK has significantly overestimated unemployment. Today, Europe’s consumer confidence numbers, US existing home sales and initial jobless claims, as well as the Philly Fed business outlook. And the RBA’s Michelle Bullock is talking at 7 tonight in Sydney at the Women in Payments Conference. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Markets nervous as Russia drops the N word (again) 16:25
16:25
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:25![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 20th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There as a certain amount of nervousness as Ukraine fired into Russian territory overnight and Russia revised its so-called Nuclear Doctrine, which lowers the requirements for a nuclear strike on a foreign power. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says the risk sentiment was short-lived, and markets are now focusing back on earnings results (NVIDIA tomorrow) and central bank expectations. The latter have been influenced a little by Canada’s strong CPI numbers, a lot of words from the Bank of England, the latest RBA minutes and, to come today, negotiated wages for the Eurozone. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 19th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil increased in price today. At first glance you might assume this was a response to the news that President Biden has authorised the use of US weapons to be fired by Ukraine into Russian territory. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says prices really rose in response to the news that the CEO of Liberty Energy - a company focused on fossil fuels - has been nominated as head of the Energy Department. Curious that the prospect of more oil wouldn’t bring prices down. Rodrigo also talks to Phil about European trade and wages data, NZ PSI and PPI numbers from yesterday, US housing and Canadian inflation. And self-drive cars, maybe a step closer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 18th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just after Friday’s podcast Jerome Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to cut rates, raising doubts as to whether a cut in December was going to happen. Market pricing fell, to the point where it’s now closer to a 50:50 chance. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through what was said, and the mixed US data from Friday, that included strong retail sales and an (unbelievably) strong increase in manufacturing in the NY Fed survey. China’s data on Friday also gave some hope. This week, Taylor suggests, markets will have more words from central bank speakers and the like, rather than hard numbers to go on. It’s going to be one of those weeks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: A new world reorder, with FT’s Martin Wolf 37:41
37:41
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt37:41![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 15th November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . How different will the world be after another term of Trump as US President? Will he grow the size of the US economy, or will his policies simply add to domestic inflation, meaning higher interest rates for longer. Will he start a global trade war, forcing companies to replicate their production facilities in each local market? Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He is not optimistic about the prospects for the world economy. Phil talks to him about the ramifications for regions like Europe and China, where growth prospects are already uncertain. How do they adapt to working with, or without, Fortress America? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Meta Search, Oil Drops, Rising Yields and Kamala’s Last Stand 12:39
12:39
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt12:39![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 29th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As suggested yesterday oil prices fell sharply in this session as markets breathed a collective sigh of relief that the Middle East war didn’t escalate further after the Israeli attack on Iran. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to explain the continued rise in bond yields. Could a fear of inflation reigniting under a Trump presidency be part of the pricing? Kamala Harris makes her last major speech in Washington tonight, one week out from the election. We are a day away from Alphabet’s earnings results, but there are reports that Meta might be launching its own AI search engine, to reduce its reliance on Google and Bing, although no spike in Meta shares on the rumours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 28th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB After that leap in margins for Tesla last week, all eyes will be on a plethora of big-tech earnings this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it could be a volatile week, with the VIX index pushing over 20 on Friday. It’s been a busy weekend with the Japanese election unlikely to bring an outright majority. What does that mean for the BoJ? China released data showing even more of an economic slowdown, along with dates for the National People’s Congress which could ratify a rescue plan. This week there’s a lot of data to come, including US AND European Q3 GDP and US payrolls at the end of the week. Locally, all eyes will be on Australian inflation data middle of the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Harris or Trump. Who wins. What changes? 37:49
37:49
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt37:49![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 18th October 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . They are neck and neck in the polls, so the US election could go either way, although markets are responding, to an extent, to betting odds which are showing Trump is the clear winner. The ABC’s John Barron reckons you have to be careful about betting odds. They often represent wishes rather than rational decisions. And polling data also has its weaknesses, as research companies struggle to find representative respondents. So, who will win and what changes if its Trump? Would he really push on with 20 percent tariffs on all US imports and the deportation of millions of undocumented migrants? John knows US politics well. He co-hosts the ABC’s Americast, and has written several books on the subject, including a history of US political campaigns called ‘Vote For me’ . On today’s Weekend edition he joins Phil to provide interesting insights into a man who is more bent on power than policy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 25th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There have been small moves up and down in the latest PMIs. Germany saw a slight rise in services and manufacturing, but the Europe wide services number fell slightly. And the UK’s star has dimmed a little, as its manufacturing fell quite sharply, alongside a drop in the services number. Catherine Mann from the BoE gave a clear indication she won’t be voting for a cut in a hurry, and RBNZ’s Governor Orr tried hard to talk down the case for further big cuts. Could 50bp be off the table? And Donald Trump pushes ahead in the latest WSJ poll. Listen to our Weekend Edition for more on what a Trump presidency could look like. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 24th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been another session of a rising US dollar, yields climbing a little and falling equities. Nab’S Ken Crompton says there have been some weak earnings results that are adding to cautions in the share market. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50bp, as expected, hence there wasn’t a great deal of market reaction. The question is, will the ECB follow suit? They are below their inflation target, but Christine Lagarde tried to set a note of caution to the markets during her talk in Washington. Global PMIs are out today, but no big changes are expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 23rd October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB What do markets do when there’s no big data releases and a slump in earnings results of interest? Not much is the answer. Phil talks to JBWere’s Sally Auld about another quiet session, with markets clearly hesitant about the US election, the pace of Fed easing and the price of equities. The steepening of the yield curve could be a reflection of an expected Trump victory. They also discuss the revisions in the latest IMF World Economic Outlook, which has basically upped US growth a little at the expense of just about everybody else. But they note, the risk is to the downside. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 22nd October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Some curious market moves this season with very little around in terms of data. So, with no hard facts to drive he agenda, what’s going on? Phil asks whether, as the election in the US draws nearer, whether we are seeing more indications of a developing Trump trade. It’s not obvious, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, with equities taking a hit, in particular financials and health, that are normal participants in the trump trade. Gold is pushing ever higher though, presumably a sign of nervousness ahead of the big day. Phil and Ray also talk about Andrew Hauser’s comments about RBA cuts yesterday and look ahead to another quiet day today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 21st October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB China’s CSI300 rose sharply on Friday. There was some positive data released, although in general the picture shows an economy that is slowing, held back by falling house prices. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the interest in shares on Friday was driven by policies aimed at share buybacks. Japan’s inflation provided more ammunition for hikes, eventually, whilst UK retail sales provided another reason for the Bank of England to avoid rushing into cuts. This week the Bank of Canada will announce its next rate cut, and the RBA’s Andrew Hauser gives a fireside chat where he will no doubt reiterate that they too see no need to rush into cuts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 18th October 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . NAB is in the thick of it, along with the rest of corporate Australia, and the government, fighting cyber-crime. This month is cyber-crime month and the message for consumers is clear - keep devices and software up to date, use strong and unique passwords and recognise and report phishing. Meanwhile, what’s being done behind the scenes to beat the criminals? Chris Sheehan, General Manager for NAB group investigations, says it’s an asymmetrical battle. That doesn’t mean NAB is losing, just that there must be constant awareness of what’s coming next. Does that mean teams of NAB people are lurking in the dark web, posing as wrongdoers? And what’s the risk that, despite all best efforts, the cyber criminals win and the whole system comes crashing down? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday18th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB has cut rates with Christine Lagarde saying the disinflationary process is on track. NAB’s Gavin Friend says since the last meeting inflation has come down, and lower growth will be giving the bank confidence that it will continue in that direction. Nonetheless, base effects might see a temporary rise in core and headline rates that make it difficult to signal back-to-back cuts, even though the weakness in the economy could well demand it. Meanwhile strong jobs data In Australia should be the final nail for those looking for another RBA cut this year. Similarly, strong retail sales growth in the USA demonstrates a resilient economy that can survive without rapid rate cuts. On that basis could we see the Fed move just once before Christmas? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 17th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation is slowing faster than expected in the UK. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton whether this means the Bank of England could cut twice before Christmas? Markets have fully priced a cut from the ECB later today, the question is, what next and when? Australian employment numbers and US retail sales are out today, along with a further announcement on housing and debt from the China. Ken says it’s another “drip feed in the ocean of fiscal stimulus” – are markets prepared to be disappointed this time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 16th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were sizeable moves in various asset classes over the last 24 hours, and that was before a revealing Trump interview with Bloomberg’s Editor in Chief. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about a day that has seen oil lower on expectations that Israel won’t strike Iranian oil installations, shares fall as a report suggests they are overweight and concerns about AI chip demand and possible restrictions on exports from the US. Plus, another shift in sentiment around China’s support plans. NZ and UK CPI are out today. In New Zealand it is expected to support the case for faster cuts, whereas the UK number is likely to give the Bank of England a bit more time to move. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 15th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB New Zealand’s Performance of Services Index stuck yesterday at 45.7 for September, marking the seventh month in contraction. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the only good news you can take for that is that it the downturn isn’t speeding up. In China the latest trade numbers were also a disappointment, highlighting the need for a stimulus from the government. In the US equities pushed higher. Phil asks, it can’t all be earnings season, can it? The question is, are some shares buoyed by the return of the Trump Trade, as the former President is experiencing a resurgence with the bookies. Today bank lending for Europe and employment and wages for the UK are the two key bits of data, along with Canadian inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 14th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As predicted by Tapas on The Morning Call last week there was no definitive plan fiscal plan presented by China’s Ministry of Finance on Saturday. As suggested, it will need to be ratified by the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, which is likely to happen before the end of the month. But NAB’s Ray Attrill explains some of the plans that were outlined, including giving local authorities access to earmarked cash that could help stimulate the economy almost immediately. There’s also a look at last week’s US PPI number and what that, in conjunction with the hotter than anticipated CPI number, could mean for the path of rate cuts by the Fed before Christmas. Might there just be one cut to come? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 11th October 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Phil Suttle is an economist who has worked at JP Morgan, the Bank of England, the Fed, the World Bank, the IIF, Barclays Capital and Tudor Investments. These days he provides his own observations and analysis to paying subscribers, saying he enjoys the independence that provides. He really can say what he thinks. So, what does he think about the world right now? With the US less than a month away from a Presidential election, how will the US economy respond to the two distinctive approaches of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris? He also talks to Phil about the differences in approaches that have been taken by central banks, including the RBNZ and RBA, the chance of a China recovery and what that means for the west, and the dire state of the German economy. It’s a whirl wind tour with Phil (and Phil), with so much more to see that we’ll have to do it again sometime soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 11th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB After stronger than expected jobs numbers last week, the CPI data overnight shows inflation isn’t coming down quite as quickly as expected. The combination might suggest there’s less of a rush for the Fed to cut rates but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there hasn’t been significant moves on the pricing of Fed cuts since the inflation numbers. It will make the words from the upcoming “bevvy” of Fed speakers perhaps more interesting than usual. The other significant event to look out for is the announcement from China’s Finance Minister at the weekend. Tapas believes there’s reason to suggest it will be another disappointment. And with the Israeli security cabinet meeting just as we record today’s episode, could they be ready to retaliate? No doubt part fo the reason for the rise in oil and gold prices this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 10th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Storm Milton hit the Florida coast at 1am ET. Despite that, and the continued risk of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities, oil prices fell overnight. Obviously China demand is part of the picture here, but another ‘announcement’ is expected from Beijing this weekend. In the latest FOMC minutes it is clear there was agreement that the risk of inflation had diminished, whilst the downside risk to employment had increased. The latest payrolls data suggest that downside risk is less clear and JBWere’s Sally Auld wonders whether all those voting for a large cut were entirely convinced of it. Maybe some were cajoled by Jerome Powell. It was a clearer picture for the RBNZ yesterday and Sally wonders whether the next cut will be even bigger. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 9th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets with any China connection have responded negatively to news from the National Development Reform Commission. An announcement was expected, and most will have assumed it would include a large swag of spending from the three trillion Yuan that was believed to have been earmarked for fiscal stimulus. But, as NAB’s Ken Crompton discusses with Phil, all they did was brought forward 200 billion Yuan from next year’s budget. They also discuss yesterday’s NAB business survey and look ahead to the RBNZ today. A big cut is expected, but will there be another one next time round? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Global markets adjust to Fed expectations 15:50
15:50
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:50![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 8th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today markets are responding to a mix of adjustments to expectations for Fred rate cuts, alongside continued uncertainty about developments in the Middle East. Late in the day in the US a judge has added to downward moves in equities by ruling that Alphabet cannot block other marketplace providers from competing with the Play Store. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril takes Phil through the moves overnight and looks ahead to a Quadrifactor (yes that’s right) of local news. Plus, possibly news of government support from China today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 7th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The non-farm payrolls data on Friday in the US was a big upside surprise. It means there’s less need for any large cuts by the Fed who will be hoping they will have controlled inflation whilst steering the economy into a soft landing. That’s assuming the rise in jobs doesn’t mean a rise in salary expectations. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks Phil through what it means and why such a strong market response on Friday. Does it have implications for other central banks? Whilst the data might have reduced expectations for faster cuts by the Fed, the BoE’s Huw Pill talked down the market response to Andrew Bailey’s comments in the Guardian. They are in no rush. Unlike the RBNZ, who is widely expected to go for a large cut this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 4th October 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Gold has traditionally been seen as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Yet, in the last few weeks we’ve seen gold repeatedly hitting new highs, even as inflation recedes. The response to the unrest in the Middle East this week hasn’t had the marked impact you might have expected. Gold has been higher at times when the situation has been more contained. So, what is the driving force behind rising Gold prices? John Reade, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, says the price has been driven by purchases from emerging markets, many of whom want to rely less on the US dollar. Phil asks if he’s talking about the BRICs nations, who reportedly want to develop their own gold-backed currency. It’s a fascinating discussion about where gold price growth is coming from and how long it will remain elevated. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Oil surges on Biden’s unanswered question 15:30
15:30
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:30![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 4th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil has risen sharply this morning after Joe Biden was asked about is support for an Israeli attack, if it was to target Iran’s oil facilities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the US President didn’t really answer the question, but it was enough for investors to fear that this was a scenario that could play out. Elsewhere, markets responded to an unexpected jump in the US services ISM, and surprisingly dovish remarks from the BoE governor that’s heightened expectations for more immediate cuts from the Bank of England Without doubt, though, the most significant news is yet to come - the latest US payrolls data, which could reinforce or deflect market expectations for another 50bp cut at an FOMC meeting before Christmas. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 3rd October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today, Phil talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about two hawks who seem to have metamorphosed into something a bit more dove-like. First, the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, who has just about confirmed a rate cut for this month. Secondly, the BoJ’s Governor Ueda who seems to be happy to toe the line of the new Prime Minister. The prospect of no rate hike any time soon, and the questions it raises about the independence of the central bank, has seen the Yen taking a big hit. Looking ahead, the US Services ISM will be the key data piece, whilst we keep a watching brief on developments in the Middle East. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 2nd October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets moved swiftly into classic risk-off territory as Iran started firing missiles into Israeli airspace. Early reports suggest minimal damage and casualties, and markets retreated a little. NAB’s Skye Masters says its often the case with significant geopolitical events that the instant reaction is tempered somewhat as more news emerges. Perhaps a broadening conflict will have a more lasting impact on oil. The news did overshadow the strong JOLTs data in the US, which showed more job openings. Australia’s retail sales numbers were also stronger than expected, but it is just one survey and the ABS says warmer weather in August is partially responsible. Meanwhile BNZ has revised its forecasts for rate cuts by the RBNZ, predicting two 50bp cuts before Christmas. The US Vice Presidential debate Is on today, late morning Australia time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 1st October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Some of the biggest moves yesterday were hardly surprises. The sharp rise in Chinese equities and the fall in Japan. On China, NAB’s Gavin Friend wonders whether markets are too optimistic and whether there’s a pushing on a string element to some of the reforms there. US equities finished higher, having spent much of the session in the red, whilst there were further moves up in bond yields. Gain says there’s some commentary on Jerome Powell winding back on rate cut expectations, when really he was simply reiterating the need to wait and see the dat. That data starts today, with the JOLTs job opening numbers in the US. Australian retail sales will be watched keenly today and survey data for New Zealand could held determine whether the RBNZ goes for a 25bp or 50bpcut next week. Also, NAB has moved forward its forecasts of when the RBA will cut. Listen in for the latest prediction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 30th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB What impact will attacks in the Middle East have on markets now? Israel is working hard to neutralise Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy combatants, with attacks on Lebanon and Yemen. It’s the first question Phil put to NAB’s Tapas Strickland on this morning’s podcast. We know there will be a strong response to the election of Japan’s new LDP, with Shigeru Ishiba becoming the new Prime Minister from Tuesday. But what does it mean for the Bank of Japan? They also discuss the latest US PCE data and why markets are expecting a faster rate of cuts than the Fed, as well as looking ahead to European inflation data, Australian deposits and retails ales and US non-farm payrolls at the end of a fairly busy week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 The Weekend Edition: The rise and rise of ETFs 22:52
22:52
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt22:52![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 27th September 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . ETFs – exchange traded funds – are becoming increasingly popular. So who is buying them? What are they buying? Phil is joined by Chamath de Silva, Head of Fixed Income at Betashares, where he manages their fixed income ETFs portfolio. They talk about the growth in ETFs and what it’s doing to flows. For example, is it driving more investors in search of overseas assets? Also, the range of asset classes covered, and the growth of active funds. And what does it mean for the future of investment advisors and fund managers? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 27th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB China is set to issue a lot of bonds to fire the long-awaited Bazooka. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the market reaction to the speculation that China is, at long last, ready to push ahead with a very sizeable fiscal stimulus. Oil behaved the opposite to what you’d expect from the news, driven by expectations of increased supply from Saudi Arabia and Libya. There’s a lot of European data to absorb today, which could paint a picture f what the ECB will do next. Their next meeting is an each way bet at the moment. Finally, Ray explains why the LDP leadership vote in Japan today could be market moving, Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Risk on switched off, whilst Riksbank gets on with it 16:06
16:06
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:06![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 26th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The slight risk-on mood we saw after news of potential further stimulus measures in China has ebbed away a little today, particularly in the share market, where indices are generally lower in the US and Europe overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s a bit of a reassessment during a session low on data. Expectations for an outside cut by the Fed have fallen slightly on the back of one large individual trade. The Riksbank, though, is confidently cutting rates, suggesting they’ll keep going until they reach their neutral rate, once they’ve decided what that is. Given the focus lately is on watching jobs, Australia’s job vacancies and US jobless claims will prove interesting today. And a night when too many Fed speakers is barely enough. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 25th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There is still some uncertainty about the future direction of US policy, with the Fed’s Michelle Bowman still concerned about a potential return of inflation, whilst most other Fed members are worried about a downturn in employment having a broader impact on the economy. NAB’s Skye Masters says the diversity of opinion is being driven by mixed data, the sharp slowdown in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report being the latest example. But there is a slight risk-on mood today, driven by hopes that China will offer a comprehensive package to kick start their economy. Meanwhile, the RBA kept rates on hold as expected, and weakness in European PMIs yesterday has heightened expectations for two more cuts by the ECB this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 24th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Monday’s global PMIs were universally disappointing, but the downward trajectory was most pronounced in Europe and, in particularly Germany. It’s created a mixed story in bond movements today, even though equities have fared well. NAB’s Tapas Strickland describes how markets are seeing the relative positions of the US and Europe right now. Today the RBA announces its rate decision, with widespread agreement that they will keep rates on hold. But how long for? And is China about to go for broke on their 5% growth target? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 23rd September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were surprisingly small moves in bond yields on Friday, whilst investors in shares seemed to be momentarily reassessing their optimism after the 50bp cut from the Fed. Nonetheless, two more cuts are assumed this year, with a rising expectation that there will be another big cut before Christmas, assisted by comments from the Fed’s Waller who suggested that inflation is falling faster than expected. The standout move in currencies was the Japanese Yen responding to push-back on the expected timing of the next rate rise by the BoJ’s Governor Ueda. Today, global PMIs are released, giving the latest snapshot on the relative strength of Germany versus the rest of Europe versus the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: The Invisible Hand Behind Your Super Fund 29:50
29:50
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt29:50![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 20th September 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . From Super funds to family trusts, John Coombe, Executive Director at JANA, has been providing investment advice for well over three decades. He is one of Australia’s most highly regarded asset managers. So, what’s the secret to his success? Part of the answer, he says, is listening to a client’s needs. The other element is to do with timing. What else? Phil teases out more from John as they take a whistle stop tour around the globe, through various asset classes and the influence of everything from central banks, to governments, to how companies treat investors. It’s an entertaining half an hour that will demonstrate the other reason for John’s success – his understanding of how the world is connected and constantly changing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Markets buoyant from Fed hikes. BoE plays it cool. 17:37
17:37
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:37![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 20th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets have responded positively to the mega-cut from the Fed yesterday, whist the Bank of England plays it cool, keeping rates on hold yesterday. Andrew Bailey said they should be able to reduce rates gradually over time, without giving any clear signal on how gradual or how much time. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates on hold, but with CPI expected to rise today NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders how long they’ve be able to maintain that policy position. He also discusses with Phil yesterday’s employment numbers from Australia and New Zealand’s GDP numbers which, although slightly better than expected, still show an economy in trouble. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Fed cuts, revises dot plot, markets still want more 18:42
18:42
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:42![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 19th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Perhaps not surprisingly the Fed opted for the 50bp cut. Markets responded sharply, but then rowed back shortly afterwards as Jerome Powell tried to downplay the significance of the move at the press conference that followed, saying this wasn’t a new pace just a recalibration of policy. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to decipher the language, the revised forecasts and the market response. Next, it’s the BoE, unlikely to move, particularly after a slightly hotter than expected inflation print. Plus, Australian employment numbers and NZ GDP today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 18th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There have been no surprises in US economic data overnight. Retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing weren’t far off expectations. So, do they all point to a soft landing? And if that’s the scenario, why would the Fed delay a big rate cut? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton, less than 24 hours from the FOMC decision, which includes revised forecasts and a new dot plot. There’s also the question as to whether the Bank of Canada will move to a faster cutting schedule, given CPI actually showed deflation last month. UK CPI is the main figure today – in particular the sticky services inflation. And, could the ECB be forced to cut rates faster in face of a slowing economy, with the latest ZEW survey for Germany showing confidence has plummeted as hopes of a recovery subside. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Is the Fed spending too long in the shower? 15:28
15:28
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:28![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 17th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Market pricing moved further in favour of a 50bpcut from the fed this week. Does that mean the Fed, who are expected to make at least one big cut before Christmas, side with the market? It makes it easier for them to walk through an open door, says JBWere’s Sally Auld on this morning’s podcast. There’s also discussion about Paul Krugman’s tweets overnight, suggesting that a data dependent Fed risks becoming Milton Friedman’s fool in the shower — the guy who alternately freezing and scalding himself because he’s too data-dependent. Canada’s CPI print is the only major data release of the day. What does it mean for the BoC, and how long do they stay in the shower for before they leave those taps alone? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 16th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big or small, that’s the question this week. Will the Fed go for a 50bp cut? If the plan is to do that at some point this year, why not now? That’s one of the arguments being touted, which Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill. Certainly, equity markets seem to be expecting a larger cut, with the Russell 2000 showing particularly strong growth on Friday. Meanwhile softer activity data from China suggests they are sliding further away from their 5% growth target, but there’s no indication of when the Politburo will implement new policies beyond the remit of the PBoC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Getting to know labour market data 29:57
29:57
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt29:57![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 13th September 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The Labour Market Report is one of the most eagerly awaited monthly releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It’s even more crucial at times like now, when it is so influential on central bank policy. But in many countries gathering this data is proving difficult. People are less prepared to participate, and gathering reliable information is becoming more costly. That’s not been an issue in Australia, according to Bjorn Jarvis, the ABS’s Head of Labour Statistics. He says the Australian population is generally very civic minded. That makes things easier. In this half hour Weekend edition Phil talks to Bjorn about how the data is collected and analysed and what trends have surprised him over recent years. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday13th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 percent, as expected. The question is, will there be more to come soon. The growth forecast has been downgraded slightly. Mario Draghi’s report is asking for substantial investment to see substantive growth in Europe and last month the ECB’s Ollie Rehn warned of the prospect of negative growth if a re-elected President Trump goes heavy on tariffs. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril gives his take on the ECB’s dilemma. We also look at US PPI and jobless claims overnight, and the rising government deficit. Plus, the impact of Hurricane Francine and what to expect from China’s activity data over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 A Swift win for Kamala, and a rogue CPI print 18:46
18:46
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:46![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 12th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Kamala Harris “won“ the Presidential debate, by most accounts, and US core GDP showed a slight tick up last month. Neither bit of news really moved the markets. Harris still has to win the election and, although a rise in CPI may be concerning, the headline rate came down for the fifth month in a row. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it hasn’t changed the pricing for cuts by year end, it might just push back a 50bp cut further than next week. The ECB is expected to cut rates today, whilst the BoE will be balancing up higher job numbers this week, with another flat GDP read overnight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Market responds to OPEC+ downgrade. US CPI and THAT debate to come. 15:13
15:13
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:13![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 11th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s been sizable falls in oil prices overnight, driven by a downward revision to OPEC+ forecasts for this year and next. NAB’s Skye Masters talks about the market response to the oil price and the slowdown more generally. She suggests it’ll make next week’s forecasts and dot plot from the Fed particularly interesting. We shouldn’t expect too much of a reaction to the US CPI numbers today and, unless there’s an overwhelming winner in the TV debate today, it’s probably too early to resume the Trump trade. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 10th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities rose sharply to the close overnight. Apple shares rose less than most, with prices actually falling during the release of the new iPhone 16, which clearly failed to impress markets. But that wasn’t enough to stop a lot of dip-buying during a session largely devoid of data releases. There’s a bit more today with the latest employment data for the UK, numbers that could definitely influence the direction of the Bank of England next week. Otherwise, markets wait for US CPI and the big debate, both more than a day away. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 9th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Whilst the US unemployment rate came in as expected on Friday, at 4.2 percent, it was downward revision to the previous two months numbers that seem to have caused the most consternation. With the Fed signalling their focus is on ensuring there isn’t a sudden downturn in employment, will these numbers raise the expectations that the cut next week will be a big one. Not yet says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, even though there has been a notable change in language from the Fed. Friday also saw a rise in demand for housing loans in Australia – adding to the RBA’s argument that there’s no need to move quickly to cutting rates. The week ahead includes US CPI numbers and an interest rate decision from the ECB. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: China’s Missed Opportunity 28:07
28:07
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt28:07![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 6th September 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . China won’t achieve its 5% growth target this year. Yan Wang, Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist at Alpine Macro, says the forward indicators show it won’t happen. So, what next for China? Yan says a shift in government policy is needed. Their focus has been on developing new, higher income sectors, such as EV manufacture. That makes perfect sense. But there’s no support on the demand side of the economy, which is languishing under low confidence levels, less spending and a shrinking money supply. All that can be turned around, but that takes a change in thinking from Beijing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 6th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are less than a day away from the US non-farm payrolls numbers, which are likely to determine whether the Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp or 50bp at this month’s meeting. NAB’s Ray Attrill says if the numbers are in-line with expectations he reckons that’ll solidify pricing for a 25bp cut, but anything weaker would push expectations towards 50bp. It’ll be interesting to see the take of two prominent Fed speakers – Williams and Waller - a couple of hours after the event. Meanwhile Michelle Bullock reiterated the need to keep rates high to fight inflation, arguing that inflation does more damage than higher rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 5th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Shares continue to push lower along with bond yields as markets continue to be concerned about the US jobs market. The JOLTs numbers overnight show the least number of jobs available since April 2021. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are vacillating between expected a 25bp and a 50bpcut from the Fed this month and the overnight numbers pushed slightly towards the stronger cut. Meanwhile, Australia’s GDP growth data yesterday showed a slowdown in consumption, but the assumption is this will pick up as real income increases, helped along by tax cuts. And the Bank of Canada cut rates for a third time, with more to follow, amidst talk that inflation might fall too far. Ahead of payrolls on Friday we get ADP jobs numbers today and the weekly jobless claims. Expect markets to react! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 4th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There have been some sharp defensive market moves overnight. In currency markets safe havens have done well, whilst shares are well down, the VIX index has risen and bonds have rallied. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend why all this nervousness all of a sudden? The only significant data release has been the US Manufacturing ISM which admittedly, did include rising prices and falls in new orders. Was that what spooked the markets, or is it more a fear of what’s to come, with payrolls at the end of the week? Before that, JOLTs and the Bank of Canada tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 America back in time for manufacturing numbers 12:28
12:28
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt12:28![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 3rd September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were subdued again on Monday with the US on holiday. Today they are back, in time for the ISM manufacturing read. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the employment component of the report will get the most focus, as the first of several labour market indicators ahead of non-farm payrolls at the end of the week. He also talks us through yesterday’s Australian business indicators and what they could mean for GDP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 ECB and US inflation leading to rate cuts. Australia waits. 17:39
17:39
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:39![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 2nd September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB European inflation is now at its lowest level in three years, whilst shares hit an all-time high. That’s cemented in the probability of a cut by the ECB this month. Expectations for cuts by the Fed haven’t moved any higher, as the Core PCE inflation read on Friday was in-line with expectations. But the fact that other central banks are cutting doesn’t mean the RBA will. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about what the RBA’s Andrew Hauser had to say on this during a podcast from Friday. Today is a quiet start to a busy week, with the US on holiday today, leading to non-farm payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Australian Equities Doing Nicely Thankyou 21:37
21:37
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt21:37![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 16th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Despite all the fears of a major slowdown, Australian shares have continued to rise and the latest results season has provided stronger than expected earnings. nabtrade’s Gemma Dale says the underlying strength in the economy, which is providing the RBA with no motive to drop rates in a hurry, is being reflected in healthy sales revenue and profits. The historic safe choices (ie mining and financials), continue to perform, even though the questions are always asked – have we reached peak iron ore, have we reached peak bank? And what of the growth in ETFs. Are they becoming more dominant and are they being used primarily as a vehicle to invest in overseas assets? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 AI caution, higher US spending and Aussie capex wanes 16:10
16:10
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:10![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 30th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Two surprises from the US. First, a 100 percent growth from NVIDIA wasn’t enough for investors, who obviously expected more. So, even though their results were considered a beat, their share price is still well down. The other surprise was the sharp upward revision in US spending. Personal spending was revised up from 2.3% to 2.9%. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril picks through the numbers. And should we be worried about the fall in Australian Capex spending yesterday? It’s a busy day ahead today, with European CPI, Australian retail sales and Canada’s GDP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 29th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets were preoccupied with NVIDIA earnings for much of the week, finishing the session with unwarranted pessimism. As it turns out, earnings beat expectations and forecasts for the next quarter are also above the street’s estimates. As a result, the share price switched from a 2.5% drop at close to a 0.5% gain immediately after the earnings announcement. We wait to see what the broader ramifications are. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s a bellwether for how well AI is doing. We also look at yesterday’s Australian CPI from yesterday and look ahead to European inflation numbers, out today and tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 28th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australia’s latest monthly inflation number is out today. Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters what’s expected and how pivotal will it be to the RBA, given they seem intent to keep rates on hold until next year. This time tomorrow NVIDIA releases its Q2 earnings, possibly the most significant event in a week devoid of large data releases. Which is why Phil and Skye resort to picking the bones out of a number of second tier releases from the US and Europe from yesterday and overnight. But every number counts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 27th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There hasn’t been a lot of market movement overnight. What there was saw a slight reversal on positions taken after Powell’s talk at Jackson Hole. Hence, the dollar is back up a little, shares have fallen, and bond yields are up slightly too. It’s lighter trading, of course, at the height of the northern summer and only second tier data to keep us occupied. That’s why NVIDIA’s earnings results on Wednesday (US time) could have an outsized influence on shares. Oil is sharply higher today, because of Libyan politics rather than tensions between Hezbollah and israel. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the day’s market news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 26th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Even though Fed speakers positioned markets to expect gradual and methodical cuts late last week, it was a very different language used by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss what was said and how market reacted. It’s clear a September cut is coming, with the Fed chair declaring that “the time has come for policy to adjust”, with a focus more on easing in the jobs market than the fears of a reprise in inflation. They also look ahead to a fairly busy week for data, including CPI and retail sales in Australia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: A world of difference - RBNZ v RBA 32:04
32:04
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt32:04![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 16th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . On the face of it you’d wonder why central banks in New Zealand and Australia have taken such different paths when it comes to fighting inflation. They are both western economies that were growing reasonably well before the pandemic. Their response in 2020 was similar, with massive fiscal injections and quite severe lockdowns. So, why such a radical difference in the response to inflation post-pandemic? The RBNZ is rapidly cutting rates, whilst the RBA is unlikely to start until next year. Stephen Toplis, Head of research at BNZ Markets in Wellington, says the economies are not the same. Even before the pandemic New Zealand was suffering with labour shortages, pushing wages higher. Now the economy has seen a more significant slowing, in part due to their higher level of rates. As Gareth Spence points out, NAB’s Head of Australian Economics, there is certainly an adjustment going on in Australia, but overall the economy and labour market have been resilient. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 23rd August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields are higher, the dollar has fallen and US equities are lower. Markets have switched direction over the last 24 hours. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are three reasons for the reversal – the latest PMI data, central bank speak and expectations for the outcome of the US election. The rhetoric from Fed speakers has been around a more gradual approach to rate cuts. It’s also the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium. It’s just like the Oscars for central bankers, without the awards, the glamour or the popular appeal. But, for all the speeches and panel discussions, will anything be said that’s not already known or assumed? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 22nd August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today as the US dollar weakens again, against a rising Yen, Phil asks JBWere’s Sally Auld to explain the impact rates differentials are having on the Japanese carry trade. The FOMC minutes this morning came as close as they possibly could to saying a rate cut will happen in September. That’s added to the weakness in the US dollar, and helped equities recover. They also look at the price of oil, which Sally says is reaching a point where it represents better value for investors. Global PMIs are the focus, along with th weekly jobless claims. A downward revision to the non-farm payrolls overnight was quite marked, but Sally explains why markets didn’t react toit as much as you might expect. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 21st August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been another quiet session, with stocks taking a breather after an 8-day rally, with volumes for the S&P 25% below its 20-day average. Bond yields have pushed lower, which NAB’s Ken Crompton says is largely a response to Canada’s CPI numbers, which presented the evidence needed for the Bank of Canada to continue with its rate cuts. The US dollar ticked lower again, thanks to a sharp rise in the Yen, which was a response to a Bank of Japan report suggesting inflation was rising from wage pressures and corporate behaviour (presumably, claiming bigger margins). That seems to have been taken as the case for further rate hikes by the bank, and Friday’s inflation number might seal the deal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 20th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are in the thick of the US and European holiday season, mixed with a dearth of data. Hence, shares are pushing higher, presumably on the hope of greater reassurance around rate cuts from the Fed at Jackson Hole. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets wouldn’t react well if there isn’t some indication that September cuts are on the cards. Meanwhile the US dollar drifts lower, oil takes a hit and bonds remain fairly flat. Today Canada’s CPI is the main data point, whilst we’ll be looking for any additional colour in the latest minutes from the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 19th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Central bankers get together for the glitzy proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium this week. Will Jerome Powell use it s a springboard for more advice on how and when the Fed will cut rates? Probably not, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, given the focus on data in Fed decision making and there’s much that’s new in the intervening days. Still, markets are optimistic, evidenced by seven days of consecutive growth in the S&P share index up to Friday. The Riksbank could announce a supersized cut this week and a softer Canadian CPI print could see the Bank of Canada heading the same way. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Is there too much state debt? 26:50
26:50
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt26:50![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 16th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . A report last week from S&P Global highlights that the debt held by Australian states could exceed $600 billion later this year. Rebecca Hrvatin joins Phil to discuss this rise in debt and what it’s doing to credit ratings. Overspend on infrastructure projects seem to be one of the major concerns. But there’s no shortage of buyers according to Ken Crompton. Ken is senior fixed income strategist at NAB and a regular on The Morning Call. He says, ironically, greater debt will be attractive to overseas investors who might previously have been put off by the limited availability of Australian state debt. The issue going forward is not how much debt is being carried, but how effectively it’s being managed. Massive project overspends are part of the problem and interest payments are becoming an increasing proportion of state governments’ expenditure. Phil asks whether green bonds could restore some balance and attract even more foreign buyers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 16th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US retail sales numbers out yesterday showed surprisingly strong spending in July. That’s pushed equities markedly higher. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says bond yields are up as markets see this retail strength as a sign that the US is not heading for a recession, which reduces the impetus for a faster path of cuts by the Fed. Rodrigo also discusses the UK’s GDP read, today’s retail numbers there, and the swag of activity data from China yesterday. Plus, what to make of yesterday's Australian employment numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 15th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares moved up slightly – except for the Russell 2000 - and bond yields fell a little, after the release of the US Core CPI print overnight. The response was muted because the data came in pretty much as expected. It was anyone’s guess where the RBNZ was heading, but we expected a cut on the advice of the BNZ and that’s what we saw. And NAB’s Gavin Friend proudly conveys the positive vibes from Britain, where inflation came in softer than expected, with the hope of a strong GDP growth number later today. If markets weren’t moved by US CPI, will the jobless claims repeat the influence they had this time last week, coupled with the latest retail sales numbers and a couple of regional manufacturing reports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 14th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Softer than expected producer prices in the US has convinced the markets that the Fed will be ready to cut in September. NAB’s Skye Masters says in an environment where decisions by central banks are so data dependent we are seeing wide shifts in sentiment, particularly in equity and bond markets, as each release is published. That means the markets at the US close on Wednesday could be violently different on Thursday when US CPI is released. We can also expect some volatility from the RBNZ decision today, with analysts split on whether or not the NZ central bank will cut rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Markets wait calmly for US inflation data 14:17
14:17
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:17![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 13th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares and bond markets have remained relatively calm, as we await the latest inflation data from the US (PPI today, CPI tomorrow). There’s plenty of data flow this week, says NAB’s Taylor Nugent, but there’s been nothing so far to move markets. Locally, will the speech from the RBA’s Andrew Hauser have any impact on the pricing for rate cuts this year? He criticised the media for talking with “extraordinary certainty” about the outlook of the economy and what the RBA was going to do about it. But markets are still pricing in a 50:50 chance of a rate cut as early as November, despite the bank’s determined effort to convince us otherwise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 11th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Remember when Pauk Keating talked about the recession we had to have? Markets thought the US was heading the same way last week, but went off the idea as the week progressed. Thoughts of an emergency rate cut were quickly dismissed, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s still more than 25bp of cuts priced in for September. A 50bp cut could still happen before the end of the year. US inflation data is out this week but, unless there’s an outsize surprise, markets are unlikely to respond too much. The focus is on jobs now, although the Fed’s Michelle Bowman outlined several inflation risk factors on Friday that are worth watching for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: A bright future for Indigenous businesses 23:48
23:48
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:48![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 9th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Friday (Aug 9th) is the United Nations' International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples. To celebrate, the Morning Call looks at how Australia is witnessing a growth in companies established and run by Indigenous Peoples. NAB’s Noel Prakash says there’s been a shift from predominantly cultural and tourism related entities, to more mainstream businesses. He talks about Kooya as one example, providing fleet management and salary packing services to mineral businesses in Western Australia. There’s the obvious opportunity for more to be done in the green space, too, from a people with a deep-rooted attachment to the earth. But what’s stopping us from having more Indigenous entrepreneurs? Noel talks about how NAB is amongst those offering more capital for start-ups, and how on a global scale even Twitter founder Jack Dorsey sees the size of the opportunity that can come from the right investment in Indigenous projects. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Markets turn, just on weekly jobless numbers? 14:23
14:23
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:23![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 9th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a sharp turnaround in US equities, with the S&P closing up 2.3%. It seems a lot of weight has been put behind the weekly jobless claims number, which is not normally a data point that would drive markets. But in this climate anything is possible. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it was probably an overreaction. Whilst some might see the week’s fall in claims as supporting an argument that the US is a long way from recession, others will point to the trend which shows claims are rising and the job market is weakening. In Australia the RBA’s Michelle Bullock stepped up the language around the persistence of inflation to try and knock out expectations of cuts this year, and the rising Aussie dollar is a sign that maybe the markets are listening. Today, China’s inflation numbers and Canada’s employment data are the two main releases. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 8th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There is still a lot of volatility around. US shares started the session well, with strong signs that risk appetite was improving. Then came a weak response to a a $42 billion 10-year bond auction. That made markets nervous and US equities closed sharply in the red. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about why the auction didn’t go well, and the influence Japan is still having on markets, influenced yesterday and overnight by words from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida. Today the NAB Business Survey is out and the RBA’s Michelle Bullock speaks early afternoon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 7th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is it feasible to expect a sharp recovery from one data set, after the extreme response to last week’s US jobs data? Markets bounced back sharply today, pushing US yields higher, strengthening the dollar and pushing shares back up. Although trade retraced its steps a little as the session marched on, with shares losing about half their gains at the US close. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we can expect volatility to be around for a while yet. Meanwhile, the RBA showed little concern for the risks of an economic slowdown, sending a clear message not to expect rate cuts this year and how they had given serious consideration to a rate hike this week. It’s a quieter session today, but that doesn’t man it won’t be just as volatile. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 6th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares took more of a hammering on Monday, although an upside surprise on the Services ISM read stopped things spiralling from bad to worse. Phil talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about another day of volatile market action, particularly for Japan, where the Yen rose sharply and shares fell quickly. They talk about where is the Fed now on its path of cuts for the rest of the year, and whether markets overplayed the response to the weaker than expected jobs data. Does any of this have any influence over what the RBA does next, assuming they keep rates on hold today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 5th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a strong response to the weaker than expected US payrolls numbers on Friday, not on the heals of weak manufacturing data. Markets will be sensitive to the Services today, in case it adds another blow to US growth and fuels more inflation speculation. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says part of the concern is that Friday’s rise in unemployment, from 3.8% in March to 4.3% in June, meets the criteria for the Sahm Rule, which is seen as a stronger predictor of a forthcoming recession. The news on Friday was felt across most asset classes, with equities in the US and Europe particularly feeling the hurt. Whilst the Fed might be scrambling to play catch-up on rate cuts, Huw Pill has suggested the Bank of England is still fighting inflation, and the RBA is expected to remain on hold tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Well off track for Net Zero 29:35
29:35
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt29:35![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 2nd August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The latest Bloomberg New Energy Outlook seems to show that globally we are way off the mark when it comes to reaching Net Zero by 2050. Instead, the report suggests we could still be pumping 25 gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That’s less than today but not enough of a reduction to contain temperature growth. The numbers are based on Bloomberg’s Economic Transition scenario, which assumes we let the economy drive the decision making, without any further policy or investment strategies. But Leonard Quong, head of Australian research at Bloomberg NEF, says the differential between Net Zero and the Economic Transition scenario has been narrowing each year, so there is grounds for optimism. They also touch on the question of nuclear energy. It might make sense in some markets, but is it right for Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 BoE boldly goes where the Fed feared to tread 16:26
16:26
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:26![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 2nd August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US share market has taken a bit of a beating after US manufacturing numbers came in a lot softer than expected. It was another sign of a US slow down that has some clearly wondering whether the Fed will cut more this year. There is no waiting for the BoE. They cut rates but NAB’s Gavin Friend says it was a finely balanced decision. Services inflation continues to be the UK’s Achilles heal, but their manufacturing numbers are doing better than most. Tonight all eyes will be on the US non-farm payrolls, particularly as Jerome Powell has indicated that the fed will be looking closely for any slowdown on the jobs market as, with inflation largely under control, it focuses more on the second part of its dual mandate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Fed holds, BoJ lifts, BoE set to cut. Shares go crazy. 18:11
18:11
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:11![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 1st August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a busy session, with US shares shooting higher as the Fe keeps rates on hold but the market reading the fed’s commentary of a September cut even more likely. During the press conference Jerome Powell basically said it was on the table if things carried on as they are. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the latest from the Fed, and suggests that yesterday’s softer than expected CPI print for Australia puts paid to any further talk of rate rises. But it’s also not good enough to bring forward cuts. The Bank of Japan did lift rates by 15bp, pushing yields up and a 2 percent rise in the Yen. Today the Bank of England meets. Will they really cut rates head of the Fed? And Meta reported strong earnings after the close, helping bolster after-hours trade. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 When it rains it pours: Aussie inflation, Japan’s rate decision. Microsoft earnings 18:58
18:58
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:58![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 31st July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a packed episode of The Morning Call today as Phil gets NAB’s Ray Attrill to take us through the latest GDP and inflation data from Europe, jobs data from the US and, from China, the Politburo’s promise to jump into action and reach 5% GDP, without really saying how. Today Australia’s CPI is the main point of interest because it could drive the RBA to an interest rate rise. A rise is expected from the bank of Japan later, perhaps a little more than previously thought. And Microsoft’s earnings results came in stronger than expected, but the after hours share price clearly didn’t like the softer results for intelligent cloud revenue. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 30th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a quiet session, with shares and bond markets moving very little, as we await the Fed and some high-profile earnings results. We’ve seen very tight trading ranges, says NABs Skye Masters on today’s podcast. The mood music though is one of an anticipated slowdown. That’s why oil prices and industrial metals are down so much. McDonalds reported a fall in global sales in their latest earnings report. European GDP is the major number out today, a long with job openings for the US. And listen in for how US earnings results give a foretaste of where the US employment market is heading. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 A big week for jobs, inflation, earnings and banks 14:16
14:16
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:16![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 29th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Get ready for a busy week, with US jobs umbers, Australian inflation, three ig earnings results from US tech giants; and the Fed meets, so does the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says one will stay on hold, one is expected to lift rates and the other is 50:50 on a cut. He also discusses with Phil last week’s core PC numbers, which showed inflation was slowing, along with earnings and consumer spending. A scenario that is very supportive of cuts by the FOMC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Japan’s Inflation Revolution 27:33
27:33
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt27:33![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 26th July 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Things are changing in Japan. After decades of not much happening, suddenly everything is happening. Core inflation is up to 2.6%, the Yen is the weakest in a long time, the stock market has hit highs not seen since the eighties, and the BoJ has moved interest rates into positive territory. It all points to a win for Japan according to Harry Ishihara, a macro strategist contractor for Macrobond and Japan Exchange Group. Suddenly companies feel enabled to raise prices and offer higher wages, helping increase margins and drive investment. He calls it Japan’s Inflation Revolution. But will it last? Was this the shot in the arm the economy needed, and how much is being driven simply by a weaker Yen. What’s to stop that weakness being eroded and Japan’s competitiveness diminished? Harry provides some very useful insights into what’s driving the value of Japan’s currency and why a weaker Yen could be here to stay. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US Goldilocks again, Germany Brothers Grimm 16:59
16:59
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:59![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 26th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A sharp turnaround in US optimism it seems, with this week’s disappointing PMIs easily overwritten by an upside surprise on GDP. Jobless claims were also down a little. The response – rising equities and falling Treasury yields. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether Goldilocks is back on the horizon, offering a faster path to cuts with minimal economic damage. It’s a very different story in Europe though, where we saw PMIs sharply lower in Germany and reaffirmed by the IFO numbers out overnight. Of course central bank decisions ultimately rest on inflation numbers, so Tokyo’s CPI and June’s US Core PCE Deflator reads will be watched keenly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Tech stocks tumble, PMIs weak, Dudley warns recession 13:47
13:47
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:47![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 25th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bill Dudey, former NY Fed Governor, now Bloomberg pundit, has said the FOMC needs to cut rates next week and it might already be too late to avoid a recession. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this comes from a man who had advocated staying higher for longer. His opinion certainly impacted 2 year bond yields overnight But the bigger news is the large falls in US equities, led by tech stocks, with the cost of AI and the slow delivery on promises taking the blame. PMIs came in weaker than expected, not just for Germany, where the fall was particularly pronounced, but also for US manufacturing, which might help Dudley’s arguments, but US GDP (out tonight) is expected to rise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Markets cautious in the heart of earnings season 16:18
16:18
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:18![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 24th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Alphabet and Tesla both reported better than expected headline revenue numbers after the US close, but the mood is still cautious. The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ all closed in the red, but a 1% rise in the Russell 2000. JB Were’s Sally Auld talks about the return of rotation, with the prospect of lower rates boosting interest in the growth potential of smaller companies. And Sally points out there are only a couple of countries that are going against the idea of easing interest rates – one is Japan, who could well lift rates next week. The other is the Australia. NAB is not expecting an RBA rate hike, but comments from Michelle Bullock yesterday are getting more people thinking its possible. It’s all down to next week’s CPI number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 23rd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB If markets were being driven by Trump-trade, the thought that he might have a more credible contender hasn’t had much impact. But what were we expecting? Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about whether, beyond bitcoin, the Trump-trade was a figment of our collective imaginations. Instead, the focus is back on tech, particularly as the first two of the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet and Telsa) report their earnings this time tomorrow. The surprise yesterday was a 10bp cut in China’s 1-year and 5-yea loan prime rates. But is it too small to have much impact? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 22nd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The breaking news this morning is that Joe Biden is stepping down from the US Presidential race and endorsing Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. Phil asks whether they’ll be a market response, or have we already been seeing it. Last week saw the dollar climbing, against falling equities and a sell-off in commodities. How much of that was down to politics and how down to the economy and the musings of central bank speakers? After a quiet start this week is heavy on important numbers, including global PMIs, US GDP and core PCE on Friday, plus a continuation of earnings season. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Investing on the Road to Net Zero – Why Aren’t We Leading? 23:18
23:18
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:18![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 19th July 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Much of the world is on the road to achieving to net zero by 2050, a target which gets more challenging as each year passes. Australia is on the right path, but it isn’t leading the pack. Why Not? Phil puts the question to Rochel Hoffman, who leads Deloitte Australia’s ESG M&A practice. Despite having many rare earth mineral resources, vast quantities of land, a wealthy society, political stability and a sunny climate, Australia has been slower than most to invest in NetZero projects. The Climate Action Tracker, which is an independent scientific group that rates each country’s progress on the targets set in Paris, rates our climate finance as ‘critically insufficient’. That will change, says Rochel. We’re working through a series of constraints that have impacted the speed of the transformation. Our history with fossil fuels has been a part of the problem. Now, green technology provides a wealth of investment opportunities for a range of risk categories. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Are equity markets looking more at a downturn than rate cuts? 16:36
16:36
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:36![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 19th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equity markets fell sharply overnight. It’s not just tech stocks feeling the hurt, the weakness is spread more broadly than that, implying that concerns of an economic slowdown are outweighing the benefits of rate cuts. Rate cuts could be happening more slowly in Europe, with some in the ECB indicating that there might be only one more cut this year. NAB’s Ken Crompton returns from his holidays to discuss the market moves and the latest data, including Australian and UK employment numbers, and looking ahead to Japan’s CPI today. We also cover the Netflix earnings results, just out. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Pre-Trump Trade Battles and Currency Fears 17:47
17:47
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:47![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 18th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It doesn’t take Donald Trump to launch a trade war with China. The Biden administration has threatened further limits on microchip exports to China, which hit tech stocks heavily in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says currencies, meanwhile, have reacted to comments from Donald Trump, who said he’s like to see a weaker US dollar, to compete against the weak Yen and Yuan. Today we look at the latest New Zealand and UK inflation numbers, and their influence on rate cuts, as well as looking ahead to today’s employment data for Australia. And the ECB, expected to be on hold, but there’s a press conference elater, if you want to stay up for it. If not, listen in to tomorrow’s podcast and get a decent night’s sleep in the meantime. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US retail runs hot and inflation day for many 17:35
17:35
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:35![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 17th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US retail numbers came in stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this could delay any moves by the Fed? Certainly, equity markets ae banking on cuts coming soon, with the rotation in stocks continuing and another strong session for the Russell 2000. Today the focus is on CPI. We’ve just had it for Canada, who seem to have it under control, and later we get it for the UK, where services inflation is putting up a fight, and New Zealand, where the economy is hanging out for a rate cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Powell eyes labour market, equity markets eye Trump friendly stocks 16:00
16:00
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:00![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 16th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets are showing some adjustment to the prospect of a Trump presidency, with oil producers and gun makers doing well, renewables falling and Bitcoin up almost 6% today. Bond markets are still more responsive to Fed-speak. NAB’s S kye Masters gives Phil her take-outs from Jerome Powell's interview at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. and another session seeing the yield curve ending steeper. Inflation data is out for Canada tonight, after a business survey showed further weakness in the economy. They also discuss the slump in New Zealand’s PMI’s and more data showing the extent of the China slowdown. Although many are expecting Chinese authorities to announce e very little new in their Third Plenum today, can they really sit by and wait? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Is Trump now a shoo-in for the Presidency? 15:46
15:46
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:46![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 15th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Saturday is likely to bolster his support, ahead of his GOP official nomination this week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil that betting markets have shifted further in favour of a Republican win. So, will we see much market impact as markets re-open today? Markets on Friday were driven by a hjgher than expected PPI read, at odds with the weaker inflation numbers earlier in the week. Phil asks how this has changed market pricing for rate cuts. They also look at Friday’s US banks earnings, China’s trade data over the weekend. Plus, what is the Third Plenum and why should we pay attention to it? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition - 75 percent: The New Normal for Office Workers? 25:48
25:48
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt25:48![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 12th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB has been looking at a variety of high frequency data sources to see how quickly workers are returning to the office. In this edition NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the trend seems to have stalled at 75% of pre-COVID levels. Credit analyst Evy Noble says this is also reflected in occupancy levels, although there is a large variation from one capital city to another. Phil asks Michael Bush, NAB’s head of credit research, what this will mean for property prices and rental yield. Michael says the issue is exacerbated by new supply already in the pipeline. So how does the market evolve? Will companies try to tempt workers back to the office, or will they downsize and try and spread the days that people choose to work from home? The detail is contained in the NAB research note, The return to Office - are we now at the new normal? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 12th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big market moves to a softer than expected CPI read in the US overnight. Bond yields are lower, the US dollar is lower and a big response in equity markets. Basically tech stocks have been hit hard, whilst industrials have climbed. Rotation is the key word for the day. The other word is Yen, which fell 1.8 percent on the CPI news. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s clearly been some opportunistic intervention by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile Joe Biden gives his press conference at the NATO conference shortly, which is widely billed by some commentators as the make or break moment for his Democrat nomination for the Presidency. And UK GDP better than expected but lost on the British people who seem more obsessed with the outcome of a certain soccer match over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 11th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The drive for Joe Biden to step aside continues to dominate the news cycle in America, with actor George Clooney, who held a fundraiser for the President only a month ago, now calling for him to step aside for someone younger. Incidentally, how many Clooney movies can you spot in today’s introduction? Meanwhile, markets are more focused on what Jerome Powell has been saying and whether the fed will squeeze in two rate cuts before the end of the year, while closer to home, the RBNZ struck a noticeably more dovish tone at their July meeting. NAB’s Taylor Nugent gives his interpretation of what’s said and how markets have responded. The biggest moves today have been in US equities, is that Fed related or jockeying ahead of earnings season? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Powell says labour market is no longer an inflationary pressure 16:34
16:34
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:34![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 10th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Jerome Powell has been speaking to the US congress and says the labour market is no longer an inflationary pressure. So, what does that mean for the timing of rate cuts? NAB’s Skye Masters says there hasn’t been too much change in expectations, with a September cut seen as most likely. With a light calendar today, a lot of the focus will be on the US ten year note auction early tomorrow morning and whether weaker demand could push yields higher. The RBNZ meets today with any expecting a fairly dovish hold. The hold is extremely likely, but dovish? Let’s see. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 9th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a lacklustre day for markets. Equities have moved a little ahead of earnings season which kicks off in earnest later in the week. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk about the new French government, which will take some time to form. Will it be one of such compromise that nothing will be achieved? But is it symptomatic of Europe’s future. German trade data showed a sharp fall in imports yesterday. The EU is set to impose fines of countries falling outside their rules on government debt. Is there rally much hope for a European recovery? They also discuss Powell’s testimony tonight – will he use it as an opportunity to signal a change in attitude for the Fed? And NAB’s business survey is out today. Hopefully it will be a little more positive than last month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 8th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB France looks like it won’t be veering sharply to the right after a. The exit poll out this morning has Marine Le Pen’s party in third place, so it looks likely the country is heading for a hung parliament. Phil talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about how the markets will respond. There was plenty of reaction to the non-farm payrolls number on Friday. The headline number suggested a rise in the people in work, but the reality is it showed an easing jobs market which is reflected in raised expectations for a September rate cut. We also look ahead to the RBNZ this week and the question mark hanging over Jo Biden’s head. Will he make it as Presidential nominee for the November election? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: More on Australia’s House Price Quandary 20:52
20:52
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt20:52![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 6th July 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . In June, according to PropTrack, Australia’s home prices hit new highs, rising for the 18th consecutive month. But, as Eleanor Creagh, senior economist at PropTrack explains, the growth is far from even. There are some cities where prices are falling. So, what are the factors driving prices up? And how can it be that prices have risen so much in the last year even though the RBA is pursuing such a hefty tightening cycle, pushing interest rates higher. Eleanor takes Phil through the latest PropTrack data and looks at the inevitable question, where to from here? If buyers have taken a longer-term view, buying when interest rates have peaked, does that mean we are less likely to see a spike in prices when the rates start to fall? Or not? Logic and house prices can be strange bedfellows. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 5th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There are three big political stories today. First, the French election round two could still deliver a majority for Marine LePen’s party. But NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are not viewing that as such an alarming outcome, saying there’s been a bit of a learning curve about what this new party could do. The UK is likely to face a change of government today, which could bring new optimism to a country that is clearly ready for a change. And, as Gavin observes, the challenge to Biden’s Democrat leadership hasn’t gone away yet. Data wise, today’s key number is the US non-farm payrolls. The numbers to watch are the employment rate and average hourly wages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weaker Services data pushes equities higher and bond yields lower 11:35
11:35
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt11:35![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 4th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The S&P hit new highs as bond yields fell overnight. Markets clearly thought the latest ISM Services number, which came in surprisingly weak, is just the sort of slowdown indicator that will encourage the Fed to act sooner rather than later. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through the numbers, the market reaction, and the diverse attitudes of Fed members displayed in the latest FOMC minutes. There’s also discussion on yesterday’s Australia retail sales, that came in a little stronger than the RBA might like, but it’s just one month and there are a lot of seasonal factors at play. Prepare for a quiet day today, with the US on holiday. But keep an eye out for the Bidden story. Could pressure be mounting for him to step out of the race, for someone younger who is able to finish sentences. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 What did Powell say to spur on US equity markets? 14:56
14:56
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:56![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 3rd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares rallied late in the session, on the back of comments from Jerome Powell. So what did he say? That’s the first question Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on this morning’s podcast. Meanwhile, Europe's inflation barely moved and unemployment is sticking close to where its been for more than a year. There’s fresh concerns about the French election at the weekend too. Today Australia’s retails sales are out along with US Services ISM, which should show further slowing of growth. And the US knocks off early in readiness for the 4th July holiday tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Yields push higher still, France’s political concerns ease, one more reason for BoJ to lift rates 13:16
13:16
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:16![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 2nd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Treasury yields continue to rise. NAB’s Syke Masters says here are a range of factors at play ,but one is the seeming lack of concern on both sides of politics to address the US government’s rising deficit. In Europe concerns about a National Rally majority eased as almost 170 candidates withdrew from the second round election to avoid diluting opposition. A higher-than-expected index in the Tanken Large Manufacturing index in Japan provides another reason for the BoJ to lift interest rates. And the RBAA minutes will be scanned for suggestions about how seriously the potential of a rate hike was/is. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 A pinch and a punch, and a win for LePen 15:12
15:12
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:12![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 1st July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s the first day of the third quarter. The unsurprising news from French exit-polls this morning shows a clear win for Le Pen’s National Rally party, securing a third of the votes. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says markets have already priced-in the outcome and there’s been very little movement in early trade. Markets responded a little more to Biden’s shaky debate performance on Friday. On the data front, the Core PCE Deflator, the fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was good news – a little better than expected if you look at the second decimal place! Germany’s CPI is out today and the Central Banking get-together kicks off in Portugal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: The Art and Science of Fixed Income. Without the straight lines. 22:27
22:27
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt22:27![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 28th June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Could central banks push their timing back even further? Emma Lawson says we can’t ignore how economies are slowing, so there’s every chance that market pricing for cuts could move forward. It’s never a straight line, the fixed income strategist at Janus Henderson says. Does that mean we have to put aside the hope of a soft landing, anywhere in the world? Emma suggests we haven’t seen the cumulative impact of the tightening of policy yet because it takes time to filter through. But what about government spending, in Australia, the US and Europe? Does it help or hinder the fight against inflation, and does it provide opportunities for investors. Emma give her take on the macro picture and the philosophy behind Janus Henderson’s approach to investing, and talks about Australia’s opportunity for investors – a mix of stability and instability and knowing what to do with it. Also, if the slow decline in central bank rates is one of the surprises of 2024, what does Emma think will be the next surprise that most people aren’t seeing? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US Core PCE deflator. Why you need to look at the second decimal place. 17:19
17:19
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:19![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 28th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t a lot of data of significance around overnight, but the combination of a range of weak data prints fuelled some hope that the fed will cut sooner than markets had been moved towards. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a slight overnight rally on Australian bonds was likely to be a response to what the RBA’s Andrew Hauser has been saying, suggesting a partial CPI print for one month was hardly enough to base rate expectations on, and there’s a lot more data before the August meeting. The key number today is the US Core PC deflator, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Markets will be very sensitive to this number, with Ray suggesting its important to look to the second decimal place because, on an annual basis, that can make all the difference. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Australia’s inflationary shock and what it changes 15:29
15:29
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:29![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 27th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday’s inflation number for Australia was a big surprise, pushing up yields, particularly at the front end, and pushing back expectations for cuts by the RBA. Some commentators – not NAB – are arguing this reinforces the case for a rate rise. But NAB’s Ken Crompton says travel was a largely responsible for the rise. He also talks about speculation from the RBA’s Chris Kent about the neutral rate, being somewhat higher than many might have expected. This morning’s other big story is the fall in the Yen to a 38 year low, and the response from China. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Canada’s turn for an upside inflation surprise 15:41
15:41
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:41![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 26th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Canada’s inflation came in hotter than expected in May and that’s pushed up Canadian bond yields overnight, but there’s been limited reaction to that – or anything really – on currency markets. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the print has pushed back expectations for the Bank of Canada to cut again in July. What happens next depends on the data. We get more Australian data today, with the CPI print for May and a speech by the RBA’s Chrisopher Kent. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 NVIDIA’s correction, the Yen’s fall and the US-Europe divide 15:30
15:30
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:30![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 25th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There are three broad themes on today’s podcast. First, a missed day on US equities again, with falls in the S&P and NASDAQ. NVIDIA shares are well down, but even a minor correction is only a deny in their upward trajectory this year. There’s also the divide between the European and US economies, evidenced by last weeks PMIs. But is the difference really that great. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril agrees with the ECB’S Isabel Schnabel that, when it coms to fighting inflation, they’re not that far apart so it would be wrong to assume a divergence in policy by the two central banks. The other theme is the continued fall in the Yen and the repercussions it could have across the region, including the Australian dollar. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 24th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB PMIs on Friday continued to show the dichotomy between Europe and the US. Even within Europe we saw clear evidence of the weakness within Germany. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what these latest PMI numbers mean for central banks. Could the strong US print delay the Fed into next year, whilst providing the reasoning for the ECB to perhaps move a little faster? It all depends on the inflation data, of course. And we don’t have to wait long for that, with thew Fed’s preferred measure, the core PCE deflator out at the end of the week and European CPIs ahead of that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: France’s shift right – a challenge for Europe? 21:54
21:54
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt21:54![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 21st June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Markets reacted rather swiftly to the news that President Macron had called a snap election for France, just after his own party had been heavily beaten in the European elections by Marine Le Pen’s Front National. This week Phil talks to Anne Bucher, from Bruegel, an independent European economic think tank. Anne is a former Director-General in the European Commission until October 2020 – in fa ct, she joined the commission in 1983 working across a wide variety of policy areas over may years. She has an innate knowledge of European politics. So, how does she see the French situation play out? Can we expect the more extreme elements of the Front National agenda to be watered down? Has the UK’s Liz Truss moment served as a warning bell for any party promoting higher debt? Whilst we can expect some compromise, Anne says the big casualty will be progress. As the EU fights battles with the right it’ll struggle to develop a cohesive plan for growth and climate change. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 21st June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Europe is in the midst of the group rounds of the Euros, but when it comes to central bank cuts Switzerland is already the champion, with Britain the favourite to cut next. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through yesterday’s decisions by the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Norge’s Bank. In the US markets seemed unfazed by Neel Kashkari’s claims that hitting the Fed’s inflation target might take a year or two. Perhaps his views were surpassed by more soft data overnight, including another rise in jobless claims. New Zealand’s GDP was a little higher than expected, but it won’t last, says Sally. And tonight the PMI data-dump for Germany, France, the Euro area, the UK and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 UK on target, markets take aim at France 14:16
14:16
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:16![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 20th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK, which has seen inflation rise to one of the highest levels, is also one of the first to get it down to target, with the headline rate down at 2% yesterday. Even so, the Bank of England won’t cut rates when they meet today, although perhaps three members of the panel might call for it. Het markets are now fully pricing the first cut at the back end of the year. NAB is expecting August. NAB’s Gavin Friend explains why the variety of opinions and expectations. He also talks about the EU’s plans to implement penalties for the large number of member states who are holding too much debt. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank and Swiss National bank meet today. He Swiss re expected to cut rates and win a football match. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 19th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The most valuable company in the world is not Apple or Microsoft. It's NVIDIA. Can anyone stop them? Meanwhile, the RBA kept rates on hold but in a way that was more hawkish that expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the committee even discussed the potential for rate hikes. NAB still expects a cut in November, nonetheless. In the US retail sales were weaker whilst government spending rose. Could all this extra government spending delay the fall in US inflation? Today UK CPI numbers are released and the US takes the day off, keeping NVIDIA on top for another 24 hours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 France settles down, US equities hit new highs again 15:59
15:59
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:59![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 18th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB French politics still has a long way to run, but markets have calmed down a bit on the hope that a LePen government might not be so radical. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says ECB chief economist calmed markets by suggesting there was nothing disorderly in bond markets that would see the need for the central bank to intervene. It’s going to be an uneventful RBA meeting today, with rates on hold and no new forecasts to map out the path of cuts for this year and next. All in all, a fairly quiet session. Except US equities, of course, that broke records, again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 17th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Last week was dominated by two big stories. First ,the dichotomy between US inflation data and the downgrade of rate cuts predicted by the Fed. Secondly, the snap French election , which could turn about to be very bad news for President Macron. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the market reaction to both by the end of the week, along with a sprinkling of data from Friday, the BoJ meeting and loan data from China. This week we hear rate decisions for the RBA, the BoE, the Swiss National Bank and the Norge’s Bank. Ray explains which one might cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Private credit markets – what to know 22:56
22:56
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt22:56![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 14th June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . There’s been growing interest in private credit markets lately. So, what exactly is it? Phil talks to Gillian Gordon, Head of Alternative Investments and Responsible Investing at JB Were, who says it’s basically non-bank lending. So why would businesses choose to borrow directly from investors rather than issuing bonds, and what’s in it for the lender? Take twenty minutes to get across the ins and outs of private credit, and why there’s been so much interest in it lately. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 14th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB You might have expected that bond yields would start creeping back up again after the Fed’s hawkish ‘one dot plot’ meeting yesterday. Instead yields fell, as the latest producer prices echoed the softness in the CPI read before the Fed. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it feels like price pressures, after a hot start to the year, are starting to cool a bit. So, does that mean the Fed’s predictions of just one rate cut this year are already out of date, just one day later? There’s also a discussion about share, currency and bond movements in Europe, the take-outs from yesterday’s Australian labour market data and what to expect from the Bank of Japan today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 13th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's been a fascinating session overnight. Early Wednesday US markets responded positively to weaker CPI numbers. Bond yields fell sharply, alongside a dip in the US dollar and more enthusiasm for equities. There must have been an expectation that the numbers would be reflected in a more dovish approach by the Fed, but the dot plot from FOMC members told a very different story, with the median expectation for just one cut this year. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the response, highlighted that the plot is a set of opinions, not a forecast and its he hard numbers that count. The next of those will be US producer prices out today, which fed into the PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. So, markets haven’t fully pulled back to their pre-CPI positions, but can we expect that if the producer prices aren’t as encouraging? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 12th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A mixed set of numbers overnight. The UK’s employment numbers showed wage pressures remain, whilst the NAB business survey also demonstrated inflation stickiness. NAB’s Ray Attrill says wages are a lagging indicator, and you can’t jump to conclusions that any of these numbers will change the central banks’ current trajectory. The path of cuts expected by the Fed becomes clearer with the release of their dot plot tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, bond yields fell overnight, helped by a positive auction result, and shares have been helped by Apple announcing the new AI iPhone. Economies and households might be struggling but we’ll always get excited by a new gadget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 End of rein for soaked Sunak , whilst NVIDIA storms ahead 18:03
18:03
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:03![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 23rd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK Prime Minister stood out I the pouring rain to announce a July 4 election for the UK, months ahead of expectations. Perhaps he doesn’t think the economy will improve so he might as well go sooner. It comes on the same day as the latest UK CPI numbers, which didn’t fall as far as expected. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether this could all push rate cuts out further. There’s a worry in some quarters that the Fed could be in the same boat, with FOMC minutes just out. In NZ Adrian Orr said the RBNZ even considered a rate hike for yesterday’s meeting. Meanwhile, NVIDIA’s latest earnings showed Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 22nd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equities were quite contained a day out from the NVIDIA earnings, although the S&P did hit another all time high. Copper prices continue to rise from its new high on Monday. Phil asks Ray what’s driving this – real factors or a speculative bubble? European wages data came in high, so much so that you’d be wondering why the ECB is so committed to a June rate cut. Canada saw inflation growth slow, and with the RBNZ tonight Phil asks Ray for his take on the order of bank cuts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 21st May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s an absence of solid data. Maybe that’s why equity markets have reverted to AI-hype, ahead of NVIDIA earnings later in the week. There’s also been significant gains in the price of silver, gold and copper. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about why precious metals are doing so well. None of this distracts from the commentary from central banks, with more from the UK and US tonight, as well as the minutes of the last RBA meeting locally. And the first fo the week’s significant CPI prints – first off, Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 20th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a quiet start today after a week that finished slowly. Skye Masters discusses how bond yields have been slowly rising, unwinding the moves after the surprise CPI growth earlier in the month. Central banks still seem to be doing their best to warn markets not to expect rate cuts too soon. Isabel Schnabel from the ECB did just that on Friday, warning that, although a June cut was appropriate, a ‘cautious approach is needed beyond that’. If Friday was quiet, expect more of the same today, although data picks up later in the week, including CPI for UK, Canada and Japan, and the latest RBNZ meeting, plus NVIDIA earnings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend edition: A budget that sets fiscal policy against monetary policy 22:14
22:14
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt22:14![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 18th May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . There’s been a lot said about the Labor federal budget this week. One of the big questions is whether the energy subsidy alongside the tax cuts and rent assistance, will do enough to bring down inflation. In this Weekend Edition JB Were’s Sally Auld argues that, whilst we might see a reduction in headline inflation, the government’s fiscal expansion is at odds with the RBA’s monetary policy and it is likely to delay any moves down in interest rates. The extra government spending might be worthwhile if it can be shown to improve productivity, but its not clear how that will happen. There is recognition, however, that these are unusual times and the need for greater onshoring and a need for governments to fast track support for emerging sectors. But how? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 17th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Even though equities fell form their record highs of yesterday, that wasn’t until after the Dow passed the 40k mark for the first time ever. JBWere’s Sally Auld is surprised at the confidence in US equity markets, particularly as data is showing more signs of softness and Fed speakers continue to talk about waiting longer for cuts. JPMorgan’s James Dimon also expressed concerns about the inflationary impact of the rising US deficit. There’s also discussion about yesterday’s Australian employment numbers, which saw the unemployment rate rise more than expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Do the inflation and retail numbers cement in two cuts for the Fed? 15:43
15:43
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:43![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 16th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI came in broadly as expected overnight, but the markets reacted anyway. Perhaps they feared another upside surprise. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the slowdown in retail numbers also raised expectations slightly that the Fed will squeeze in two rate cuts before the year is out. But what about the RBA? The wages data yesterday was helpful, but not enough to move the goal posts. What about the employment numbers today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 15th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are waiting for US CPI later today. There was some market reaction to he producer price numbers from the US, which NAB’s Gavin Friend described as sticker shock. The core number for April was higher than expected, but markets quickly retraced steps when the March number was revised down. In short, not such a big move after all. UK employment numbers were a little stronger than expected in March, along with wages data. Australia gets its wage inflation data today, as markets come to terms with last night’s Federal Budget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Budget day: Helping or hindering the inflation battle? 15:34
15:34
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:34![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 14th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It is of course, budget day in Australia today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says government subsidies will help bring headline inflation down, but the rise in household spending could delay the slowdown in the underlying inflation rate. The speed at which inflation will fall continues to be the question on everyone’s lips around the world. For the US the PPI (producer prices index) will be watched keenly because it feeds through directly to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. CPI numbers tomorrow will add to the picture. The UK’s employment and wages data today will show whether the upside surprise in GDP in the last quarter is being reflected in the labour market, which could also delay the slowdown in inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 13th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were a few signs that inflation globally might be taking longer to fall. Canada’s surprise employment numbers pushed yields higher, and the UKs CPI was an upside surprise on Friday as well. Consumer inflation expectations in the US also came in higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says al these factors could push back rate cuts a little further. And what about locally? What is the potential impact of more government spending and wage increases in the budget tomorrow? Meanwhile, demand is more of an issue for China than inflation. Aggregate financing fell for the first time in 20 years and Joe Biden is expected to announce a 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Fixing Australia’s productivity problem 24:48
24:48
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt24:48![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 10th May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Productivity gains have been slipping, not just in Australia, but around the world. The problem locally is accentuated by the shift away from a heavily automated resources sector, where significant value is added per employee. If we can’t manage the same level of efficiency as we switch to more labour-intensive output, particularly in the services sector, should we assume that productivity growth will not return to pre-pandemic levels. It’s a question Phil puts to Danielle Wood, chair of the Productivity Commission. They discuss what is being done to fix Australia’s productivity shortfall and what can we learn from countries where productivity is higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 BoE talks cuts, soonish. Market unphased. 17:19
17:19
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:19![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 10th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t much market reaction as the Bank of England kept rates on hold but said what many already knew, that they will have to cut rates in the coming months. The ECB seems wedded to the idea of a June cut, with the accounts of their last meeting out today, but there is some speculation about how quickly they will follow through. Canada’s unemployment is expected to tick higher, adding pressure for a rate cut there although, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, it’s wage inflation that really counts. The UK is expected to see GDP return to positive territory today, and China’s PPI and CPI numbers are out over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Data drought with no clear direction, ahead of BoE 15:16
15:16
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:16![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 9th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t any tier one data overnight to give markets any clear direction. You could say there was an air of subduedness. The Riksbank cut rates, as suggested yesterday, but one ECB member is concerned that going too early, against a Fed that keeps rates on hold longer, could drive the Euro lower and add to inflation concerns. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the problem emerges after one or two cuts, alongside a Fed that’s not moving. So what’s the Bank of England’s strategy? August seems the most likely month for a cut, says Gavin, but we’ll find out more at the meeting and the press conference that follows. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 8th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB is still expecting that the RBA’s next move will be a cut in November, because yesterday’s meeting did raise the possibility of a rate hike if inflation remains too persistent. NAB’s Skye Masters says the market reaction was tame because none of this came as a surprise. We’ve known that inflation was taking time to come down, and the revisions to the RBA’s inflation forecasts yesterday simply reaffirmed that belief. Neel Kashkari from the Minneapolis Fed also spoke of the possibility of a hike if inflation and jobs remained strong. In Europe it’s a different story and there’s a real possibility that the Riksbank will cut rates today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 7th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA meets today and is expected to keep rates on hold. They also release their revised inflation forecasts in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there will be some market sensitivity around these numbers, as well as the press conference, although there’s a firm expectation that rates won’t budge today. There is one central bank that might cut rates this week though. Listen in for more on that, plus the hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East and a sprinkling of second tier Euro data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 11th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Non-farm payrolls came in a lot higher than expected in the US on Friday. Not only were there more people in jobs, but wages are also rising faster than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent how uncomfortable this will be for the Fed and what it’s done to market expectations There will be a lot of focus on the FOMC meeting this week, with the dot plot telling us when the Fed thinks we’ll see rate cuts. Whilst the ECB has been working hard to reel back expectations for rate cuts in Europe, President Macron has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons by calling a snap election in France, in response to a lurch right in the weekend European Parliamentary elections. It’s not going to be a dull week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Mookhey’s Balancing Act in Australia’s Most Unaffordable State 30:21
30:21
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt30:21![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 7th June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . On 18th June Daniel Mookhey, the NSW Treasurer, presents his second budget to the state parliament. This week he talks to Phil about the challenges he faces, starting with house prices. They continue to rise, despite repeated efforts by governments over the years to bring them under control. How much of it is down to supply and what can the government do to increase it? Infrastructure building is part of the solution, says Mookhey. But that costs money and, if the NSW government increases spending couldn’t it add to the inflation problem? Is that something he worries about? In this half hour discussion Phil talks to the Treasurer about how he balances government spending against the drive to build the foundations for future growth, whilst facing the challenges of a less egalitarian society and a hefty state debt. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 7th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB cut interest rates as expected, but there’s no clear indication of when the next cut will come. NAB’s Gavin Friend says staff forecasts have pushed inflation higher. Hence, a hawkish cut. So much so, you wonder whether they would have carried through if it hadn’t been so clearly signalled beforehand. Now the focus is on the US labour market and what it means for the Fed. The ADP jobs number came in soft earlier in the week and the jobless claims number rose last night, with a softer read is expected tonight. Just as important ifs the question of wages. Q1 labour costs were downgraded yesterday, so will the fall carry through to the May number tonight? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 6th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities hit new highs today and bond yields continued to fall. The Bank of Canada cut rates overnight with indications there will be more to follow. They pipped the ECB to the post, with their cut expected later today. Equities and bonds have been buoyed by positive sentiment, helped by a surprisingly strong ISM Services number for the US, after a weaker ADP jobs report – combined they add to the case for cuts from the Fed. NABs Ken Crompton joins Phil today to talk through all this central bank action, as well as digging into yesterday’s Australian GDP data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 5th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond markets continue their rally, with yields down again this morning. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s in part down to the JOLTS data in the US overnight, which showed job openings slowing. That’s pushed forward expectations for Fed rate cuts slightly. He also points to the election result in India, which saw the PM lose his majority, which could impact future growth and, therefore, energy demand. We’ve seen commodity prices coming down again, hitting the Aussie dollar. Today we get Australia’s GDP for Q1. What should we expect? And could the bank of Canada be the first G7 central bank to cut rates in this cycle? We’ll find out later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 4th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Longer end yields pushed higher overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says it was in part down to softer manufacturing data from the US, although there’s a chance markets have overreacted to what was a pretty mixed picture. For example, whilst the Manufacturing ISM fell, the Manufacturing PMI, for the same month, released at the same time, rose. Markets are hoping, though, that softer data on the back of falling inflation means more cuts can be squeezed in by the Fed at the back end of the year. There’s also discussion on the Australian minimum wage decision, why oil has fallen so sharply overnight and the importance of US job openings data tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 3rd June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Europe’s core inflation number rose slightly on Friday. That won’t change the ECB’s bolted-on decision to cut rates this week, but the likelihood of more than one other cut this year is diminishing. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Friday’s Core PCE Deflator number in the US was lower than last time, but if it had been 0.002% higher it would be the same as last time. Not enough to change expectations from the Fed, with speakers now in the blackout period ahead of the June 14 meeting. Today |Australia’s wage award decision will be watched, and GBP for Q1 is out this week too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: How could Trump change the Fed? 28:13
28:13
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt28:13![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 31st May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Assuming he stays out of prison, Donald Trump has an even chance of winning the next Presidency. What does that mean for the Fed? Trump has often argued for the need to keep interest rates low, so he’s probably not too happy with the higher for longer strategy being used to fight inflation right now. We also know he wants to challenge the independence of the central bank. But how would that work exactly? On this Weekend Edition Mary Rosenbaum, Managing Director of the Observatory Group, an analyst firm in Washington specialising in geopolitics and macroeconomics, gives her take on what President Trump 2.0 could do to achieve his low-interest aims. Will he try and replace people in the Fed, or change the Federal Reserve Act so the government has more control over how the Fed operates, with Treasury members on the board perhaps. Or will Trump resort to bullying the Fed to see things his way? Mary talks through the various scenarios and what the implications could be on bonds, interest rates and the dollar. Some useful insights that’s worth half an hour of your weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 31st May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation is taking a long time to come down, everywhere it seems. Europe reports its CPI today, but the numbers from Germany and Spain have already shown it’s taking longer than expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about expectations around the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Deflator, out later today. With Fed speakers doing their best to pus expectations further back a high number here could be the ammunition needed for those expected no cuts this year, and maybe a rise. That’s an argument made by Bill Dudley on Bloomberg today. Yet there are many signs of a weakening global economy, the US included, which will give hope to those expecting cuts sooner rather than much later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 30th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australia’s monthly CPI reads are always to be treated cautiously. Nonetheless, the surprise rise in inflation did create a response on Asian markets, pushing Aussie yields higher. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks about how weaker bond demand in US 7-year note auction added to the bond sell-off. Australia wasn’t the only inflation surprise. German CPI also rose. The ECB is wedded to a cut next week, but will they deliver the 60bp priced in for this year? In New Zealand the question for today is can the government meet all their budgetary promises without adding to the inflation worries. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US bond appetite eases, consumer confidence lifts 14:33
14:33
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:33![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 28th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were two bond auctions in the US overnight – for 2 year and 5 year treasuries. Both saw weaker demand than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if investors are weary of the size of bond supply this year. Meanwhile US consumer confidence rose more than expected. Yesterday we saw weaker retail numbers than expected, but part of that can be explained away by the timing of Easter. Today there's the CPI number for Australia, although it’s not expected to influence the RBA’s sense of timing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 28th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a quiet 24 hours with the UK and US on holiday, with the bond and equity markets closed in each place. But Europe was open for business, although the German IFO numbers offered little to get excited about – staying in the same place as last month. One ECB speaker said after the June rate cut, the central bank will retain ‘maximum optionality’ – central bank speak for we’re not sure what happens next. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril guides us through the data, and the commentary from the ECB and the BoJ. Australia’s retail sales numbers are out this morning, along with producer prices for Japan, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report out tonight in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 27th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Friday was a quiet end to the week, but the NSDAQ still managed to touch a new high. Bond markets closed early in the US, though, in readiness for a long weekend, that will see a slow start to this week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says trade was light so we can’t draw any definitive conclusions about too much. Even Nobel economist Paul Krugman is unsure where things are heading. He said he could argue either way as to whether or not interest rates will remain higher for longer, and whether R* rate should return to 2019 benchmark levels, or has it moved higher. Does anyone know? After a quiet start, this week picks up with the US PCE deflator on Friday, and Australian retail sales and CPI prints before that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Tech. Too big to ignore? Or too much of a good thing? 23:14
23:14
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:14![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 18th May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . NVIDIA is now the third biggest listing in the US, with a market cap of 2.3 trillion dollars. Their earning results this week were an upside surprise for revenue, margins and forward guidance. So how far has the US tech growth story got to go? Phil talks to NABTrade’s Gemma Dale about the rise and rise of tech. Is it pulling investment away form Australian domestic stocks? They cite some interesting research from NAB that demonstrates how super funds have been selling US shares because the growth has been too strong and they need to rebalance their portfolios. Retail investors, of course, aren’t limited in the same way, so should they hold on for the ride? And what part does Australia play in the tech and environment megatrends? Can we expect some high growth companies as well? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Are strong PMIs pushing cuts back even further? 13:22
13:22
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:22![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 24th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Stronger than expected PMIs in the US – for manufacturing and services – have pushed bond yields higher. Equities, which started the session strong on the back of the NVIDIA earnings, have also fallen sharply today as pricing for rate cuts by the Fed gets pushed back further. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the data for the US does need to continue to soften for the Fed to deliver on cuts, and these numbers went against that trend. In Europe the latest ECB wages data also challenged expectations for moves beyond the already signalled June cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 6th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The non-farm payrolls in the US came in lower than expected, with a rise in the unemployment rate. NAAB’s Ken Crompton says we shouldn’t get too excited by the unemployment rate because it’s a small move when you take it to the second decimal place. The Services ISM was also weaker, falling into contraction territory. The impact has been to bring forward rate cut expectations a little, with a 75% chance the Fed will move in September. In Australia home loans data wasn’t particularly encouraging reading. The focus is now on the RBA tomorrow, then state budges later in the week. Will spending add to pressure on jobs, slowing the fall in inflation? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 The Weekend Edition - The fundamentals of the Magnificent Seven 23:50
23:50
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:50![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 3rd May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . They dominated the global share market last year and many have enjoyed tremendous growth so far this year, with NVIDIA as the clear outperformer. Whilst there’s a been a bit of an adjustment lately, Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies in Connecticut, says there’s still plenty of momentum and their own analysis points to prices pushing higher. Katie’s approach is to build a portfolio based on technicals. “I do read macro strategists work”, she says in this weekend’s podcast, ”but it won’t drive our decision making process”. In other words, any macro development will be reflected in the indicators they follow at some point. And those technicals are painting a positive picture for most of the big tech stocks right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US productivity slips adding to labour costs 19:29
19:29
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt19:29![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 3rd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US productivity has slipped quite markedly in Q1, that’s pushed up labour costs – is that something to worry about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Gavin Friend, who says markets are still responding to yesterday’s dovish slant from the Fed. Non-farm payrolls will be watched keenly tonight, along with US Services PMI. Locally Australia’s home loans data is out today. Phil and Gavin also talk through revisions to the OECD’s growth forecasts for the US, Australia, Europe and the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 2nd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed kept rates on hold for the sixth meeting in a row this morning, warning that there had ben a lack of further progress towards their 2% inflation target. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it didn’t really change market pricing for a cut, with the first fully priced move still looking like December. But there was a fair bit discussed during the press conference, from the terminal rate, the impact of the election and the possibility of a rate hike. Jerome Powell gave a cautious ‘no’ to the rate hike. Listen in for the latest from the Fed and the latest data, including JOLTS from last night and Australia’s trade data today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Bond yields push higher, heavy losses in equities a day out from the Fed 14:43
14:43
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:43![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 1st May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A month-end a day out from the Fed decision in the midst of some earning results for some heavyweight stocks, its hardly surprising we saw a lot of volatility in bonds, currencies and equities in this session. NAB’s Skye Masters says yields pushed higher on the release of US employment costs, which were higher than expected, contribute g to more of a push back in the timing of Fed rate cuts. Jerome Powell would have to be uber hawkish to pish rates any higher says Skye, but we’ll know this time tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 30th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB German inflation numbers overnight were stickier than expected, presenting a challenge for the ECB, one of the few central banks that has been talking-up the mid-term rate cuts. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril if this puts June cut in jeopardy, or the expected follow-up cuts later in the year. Elsewhere we saw a sharp reversal in the value of the Yen. Has it been driven by intervention, or at least the anticipation of it? Australia’s retail numbers will be the focus locally today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 29th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US March PCE Deflator number on Friday was broadly in line with consensus, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says upward revisions to the January and February numbers show inflation remains persistent which delays further the timing of cuts by the Fed. There weren’t big moves in bond yields but that could all change with a busy week for US data, including ISMs and Payrolls, along with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. To add some spice to the equation The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump, if he were to become President again, might challenge the independence of the central bank. There was a strong move down in the Yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan did little to support the currency and there’s a question as to whether they will lift rates at all this year. With inflation so low, do they need to? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Moving up the renewables value chain 29:01
29:01
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt29:01![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 26th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australia is well placed in terms of natural resources for the green energy transition. We are already one of the world’s largest exporters of lithium, in-demand for the production of batteries, primarily for electric vehicles. Alison Reeve, Energy and Climate Deputy Program Director at the Grattan Institute, joins Phil to talk about how Australia can gain maximum benefit from the drive for NetZero. Can we, for example, move up the renewables value chain, so we don’t simply extract minerals and ship overseas. There’s an enormous opportunity, says Alison, provided we recognise the strengths we provide and where in the chain we stop adding value. In this wide raging discussion they also look at the growth of sodium-ion batteries, hydrogen’s place in Australia’s future and the pitfalls of localised solar cell production. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 24th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is stagflation on the horizon for America? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril after we saw slower growth and rising prices in data out on Wednesday. Could slow growth impact the euphoria around the Magnificent Seven? Well not just yet, as Microsoft and Alphabet have both enjoyed double digit percentage growth in after-hours prices o the back of strong earnings data. They also discuss Australia’s latest CPI data which will mean a revised forecast from the RBA, but what does it do to the speed of rate cuts? And could the Bank of Japan surprise today, as the Yen hits another low? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 PMIs show narrowing US-Europe gap, Inflation Day for Australia 16:35
16:35
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:35![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 24th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB PMIs showed some strength in Europe, but were generally weaker than expected in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s the US numbers that generated a market reaction because it adds to the leading indicators that challenge the notion of US exceptionalism and that the gap between the US and Europe is closing. Today the quarterly CPI print for Australia is unlikely to move the dial on RBA cuts, even if it comes in slightly lower than expected. Plus, Tesla’s earnings results, which have seen a rise in after hours pricing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 23rd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The force of AI is strong it seems. It’s certainly pushing equities back up again in the US ahead of earnings results for several of the Magnificent Seven later this week. Meanwhile, bond markets and currencies have calmed down, although the pound is weaker on expectations for an earlier cut by the Bank of England. Today PMIs for the UK, US and Europe will give a clearer indication of the relative strength of each economy and, perhaps, justify the different schedules being pursued by the various central banks. JBWere's Sally Auld talks through it all on today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 22nd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The magnificent seven have been taking a hit in the US share market. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the forward-guidance for Netflix wasn’t received well, and four more of th large tech stocks report this week. Meanwhile, there were further signals of delays in Fed rate cuts, whilst the impetus in Canada, Europe and the UK seems to be, if anything, moving the other way. But, assuming no further escalation in the Middle East, it seems likely that US equities might be the focus in the early part of this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 The Weekend Edition: Europe needs a confidence boost 24:25
24:25
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt24:25![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 19th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week we saw the divide between European despondency and American exceptionalism widen a little further. The IMF upgraded their US growth forecasts, whilst nudging Europe’s a little lower. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Melanie de Bono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in London, says the economy is already benefiting from real wages growth which should accelerate domestic demand, whilst a June cut by the ECB seems likely, with Pantheon predicting four cuts in total this year. That’ll free up even more household spending whilst boosting the investment opportunities for business. But is there the confidence in the economy to support that shift in demand and production? And what of a likely trade dispute with China and the potential of increased geopolitical volatility in the Middle East? Could they impact inflation and hinder Europe’s relatively lacklustre growth opportunity? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Next Fed move, backend of the year, unless it’s up! 16:12
16:12
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:12![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 19th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Fed speakers are increasingly pushing expectations for cuts further back in the year. John Williams even suggested he’d entertain the idea of a rate rise if it was warranted. That’s coming from one of the more dovish members of the FOMC says NAB’s Ken Crompton. Ken also takes us through yesterday’s employment numbers for Australia and looks ahead to Japan’s CPI and UK retail numbers today. And we give you the latest Netflix earnings – a knockout for new subscribers. Plus a taste of what’s to come on the Weekend Edition. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 UK inflation slows, but not enough. Aussie employment numbers today. 15:30
15:30
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:30![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 18th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were mixed overnight. The dollar lost a bit of ground, AUD and NZD outperformed, bond yields fell, while US equities have continued to struggle. The only geopolitics to speak of came from Joe Biden talking upping the need to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium imports. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it as a bit of electioneering and pacifying the US steel industry. Today Australia’s employment numbers will be the focus. The unemployment rate rose considerably in February but as Rodrigo points out, these numbers can be very volatile. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 17th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s been a significant shift in sentiment from central bankers at the IMF meeting in Washington. Jerome Powell, who had previously seemed happy to accept rate cuts relatively soon, is now signalling it will take longer. IMF forecasts that significantly upgraded US growth for this year might have added to the pressure to cool things a little. Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey from the Bank of England, who it was assumed was prepared to wait till after the Fed, is now talking about inflation coming down, suggesting a cut sooner might be possible. Perhaps a sharp rise in unemployment influenced his thinking. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through the latest data and words from the mouths of central bank speakers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US retail moves markets, not the Middle East 15:53
15:53
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:53![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 16th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The latest retail numbers showed the resilience in the US economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says its surprising given the fall in household savings, but there are more people in work feeding the spending habit. These stronger than expected numbers haven’t changed expectations for the timing of rate cuts by much, but bond yields have pushed higher and lifted the US dollar a little further too. A weaker Yen and Aussie dollar have been two of the consequences. Today employment data for the UK, CPI for Canada and GDP for China. Plus the latest forecasts from the IMF. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 15th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB How markets respond to the Middle East situation this week really depends on whether Israel retaliates. The expectation of the weekend’s drone attack on Israel by Iran pushed the US dollar higher, bond yields lower and caused some damage to equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there hasn’t been much response in early trade today, but Bloomberg Economics is predicting a sizeable spike in oil prices if this broadens to a regional war, with the subsequent impact on global GDP and inflation. There’s also discussion on China’s trade numbers from Friday, the weakening Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and what to look out for today, besides the latest geopolitics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: The "women with money" opportunity 20:04
20:04
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt20:04![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 12th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Financial advisors could be missing a trick. So many of them are men, used to dealing with men, yet the customer base is shifting. High net worth women are accumulating their own assets, from their own lucrative careers, from intergenerational wealth passed to them, from managing their parents asets or as proceeds from a divorce. Data from last year showed that male millionaires were growing at a rate of 3.6% per year, whereas female millionaires were growing at 5.7% per year. So, is this industry geared up for this? JBWere CEO Maria Lykouras doesn’t think the industry is adapting fast enough, which is why she commissioned research, summarised in a new report on the Growth of Women and Wealth (pdf). On the Weekend Edition she explains where the industry is falling short and how it can adapt, and what she is doing to get JBWere up to speed on the opportunity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Europe is getting ready, without being triumphant 17:39
17:39
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:39![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 12th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Christine Lagarde said a few members of the ECB were ready to cut rates now, even as the ECB President announced that, for now, rates will stay on hold. Was this the strongest suggestion yet that a June cut will happen? Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Fiend what he took from the ECB meeting overnight. Meanwhile, US PMIs didn’t help the case for those looking for signs of US prices falling faster. Quite the reverse. Bad news for the UK too, with one MPC member saying the BoE shouldn’t cut before the Fed, although that simply supports NAB’s base case that the BoE is some way away yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US CPI surprise. The last mile just got longer 15:18
15:18
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:18![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 11th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation is not coming down quickly. There’s been a lot of evidence for that lately and the latest CPI numbers can be added to the list. The response from markets have been quite pronounced, with a significant rise in yields, a sharp climb in the US dollar and a fall in equities. NAB’s Sky Masters says the moves reflect markets who have been holding out for a June rate cut – now reality has hit. The Bank of Canada and RBNZ both kept rates on hold, with a similar message that they need more time before considering cuts. It seems the ECB might be the first to cut – we’ll get some fresh insights at their meeting later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Two central banks and lots of unhappy small businesses 17:15
17:15
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:15![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 10th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI numbers are out today along with a couple of meetings of central banks - the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the expectations for both those meetings, although clearly both are expected to be on hold. So which one will make the move first? We also discuss yesterday's NAB business survey and consumer confidence, as well as diving into the surprising results from the NFIB business optimism index in America which is at its lowest level since 2012. And Phil eats some humble pie. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Treasury yields hit year highs on creeping doubts about Fed easing 16:51
16:51
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:51![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 9th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB 10 year Treasury yields hit a year to date high overnight as markets continue to push back expectations for the number and timing of FOMC cuts this year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed’s Goolsbee described the US economy as being in a normal boom-time – not the environment for cuts. But there are signs that other parts of the world might be recovering a little faster. Een Europe is showing signs of a recovery. At home yesterday’s housing finance was stronger than expected, another factor that could delay the RBA. Today the NFIB small business survey is out, but ray says the key small business number is already out. Listen in for more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 8th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US non-farm payrolls showed many more new workers than expected last month, but an increase in the participation rate meant the unemployment rate actually fell. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril why the numbers have pushed back market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed. He says, surely they’d be happy to see a broader workforce because it would ease wage inflation pressures? There’s also discussion on rising commodity prices, the record price of gold and yet a falling Australian balance of trade. Three central banks meet in the week ahead. Listen in for more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: China’s future – on its terms 28:25
28:25
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt28:25![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 5th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . China is forecasting GDP growth of 5 percent this year. The China Daily suggested last week that the economy was on track to see sustained growth of 4.5 percent each year until 2035. Just how realistic are those ambitions for a country steeped in debt, with large scale developments being forced into administration? Diana Choyleva is Chief Economist at Enodo Economics, a research company based in London that focuses on China. She suggests the short-term target is likely achievable, but the longer term proposition is less certain as the economy struggles to create increased domestic demand whilst undergoing more decoupling from the west. There are further insights available from the Enodo Economics website, including this paper: China Unveils Expansionary Policy In Support Of Xi's Security Objectives - https://bit.ly/3U2xiAE Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Australia’s housing problem, US markets choppy ahead of jobs numbers 17:54
17:54
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:54![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 5th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The latest building approvals for Australia show just how bad the housing situation is becoming. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s a structural problem that adds to the difficulties the RBA faces in slowing inflation. He talks through the latest NAB forecasts for CPI ahead of the next release later this month. Meanwhile equity markets have been choppy ahead of tonight’s payrolls numbers in the US, whilst the ECB minutes reaffirm that a June cut is likely. But then what? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Powell waits whilst service sector softens 17:49
17:49
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:49![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 4th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Jerome Powell spoke at the Stamford Forum overnight, reiterating that the Fed was prepared to wait before cutting rates. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are now stating to come to terms with the fact that a June cut is almost certainly off the cards, and three cuts this year are looking less and less likely. But how long do they wait for? The Services ISM was weaker than anticipated, could a delay in cuts cause unnecessary damage to the economy? A June cut is far more likely in Europe, where the Eurozone CPI read came in lower than expected. The ECB meeting minutes out today will be eagerly perused for any indication to the contrary. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 3rd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields continued to rise in the US overnight, with Europe playing catch-up as it returns from a long Easter weekend. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the adjustment markets are making to their rate cut expectations from the Fed. European bonds also rose even though today’s Eurozone inflation number could be lower than expected. There’s also discussion of the RBA minutes, which seem a little more hawkish than the tone set in the statement and press conference. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Hopeful data suggests US is heading for ‘no landing’ 16:42
16:42
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:42![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tueday 2nd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US manufacturing ISM this morning was stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if we are seeing more soft-landing evidence from the US, with the Core PCE deflator read on Friday showing prices are rising just 2.8% year on year, whilst spending is rising, and job claims fell last week? Rau suggests its more of a ‘no landing’ situation, if the data holds out. There was good news from China too over the weekend. It might be a short week, but it’s a busy one. Phil and Ray talk through what to expect. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Bronwyn Curtis on central banks and growth 26:23
26:23
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt26:23![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 22nd March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Bronwyn Curtis OBE is an Australian economist living in the UK with an illustrious career in finance. She’s headed Currency and Fixed Income at Deutsche Bank, then later at HSBC, as well as working fo the World Bank in Latin America and Asia, and overseeing development of Bloomberg’s European broadcast operations. Bronwyn joins Phil Dobbie to give her take on where monetary policy is right now and you’ll find some of her observations contradict the consensus. The Fed, for example, she thinks will move later and are unlikely to see through the three cuts markets are expecting. The ECB, meanwhile, have every reason to cut sooner. Longer term she thinks interest rates around 3 percent will be healthier for a growing economy. Listen into a wide-ranging discussion covering Europe, the US, China and the influence of Trump. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 28th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A early Easter this year is creating the potential for extra volatility the last day or two of the quarter. Even though the Core PC deflator numbers are out at the end of the week, the markets are closed on Friday. That means markets finish the quarter still speculating on the direction inflation is taking. Adding to the volatility is the question about how much intervention we can expect from Japanese authorities as the Yen fell to its lowest level since 1990. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through the days action and looks bac at yesterday’s Australian CPI, as well a s highlighting a new JBWere report looking at the shift in wealth to Australian women. We also look ahead to this afternoon’s Weekend Edition. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Break the glass and get ready for inflation numbers 15:18
15:18
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:18![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 27th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a session low on significant data and low on market moves. Bond markets have managed to absorb sizeable auctions however, and equities have bounced back as we approach month end and the US inflation data at the end of the week. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through those moves, some of the softer data out f the US and looks ahead to Australia’s CPI today, explaining why this release is more useful than the last. And breaking the glass? Hear comments from on member of the Bank of Canada who says they are facing an emergency when it comes to productivity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 26th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The CNY climbed higher today, as the PBoC set a higher reference rate, reversing expectations that perhaps authorities were willing to see the currency drift a little lower. NAB’s Rodrigo Catrl talks through the moves, and the warning from one senior Japanese official that speculation driving down the Yen will not be tolerated. Meanwhile bond yields in the US and Europe push higher, ahead of inflation data later in the week. Data is light today, but we get consumer confidence data for Australia, Germany and the US (conference board). But as Rodrigo points out, how people feel and what they do are often very different things. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 25th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The CNY fell sharply on Friday after Chinese authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the consequences and repercussions of an approach that might be less contained. Meanwhile markets are responding to the commentary form Central banks last week. How would you sum it up in one word, asks Phil? Later? No, quite the reverse says Taylor. Particularly in the UK. Although ‘later’ still applies to the RBA and perhaps, to the FOMC. It’s a quiet, short week, but a lot off the key data emanates from Australia, including CPI on Wednesday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: The Great Education Bounce Back 26:30
26:30
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt26:30![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 22nd March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Foreign students are back and more than ever. Julie Hare, education editor at the AFR, says its more than just a rebound and catch-up from COVID. Something has shifted. So, what does that mean for the economy? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are economic consequences – good and bad. It has alleviated some of the tightness in the labour market, but its also added to inflation pressures. Phil asks, without it, how well would the economy be faring? Looking ahead the picture is complicated. On this week’s podcast we look at how international demand is not matched by the domestic appetite for higher education, despite the government’s aims to increase the numbers and diversity of students. Plus, how are educators coping with new regulations aimed at clamping down on those cheating the system to gain access to work in Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Bad Apple, Swiss Surprise, English Hawks fly 16:35
16:35
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:35![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 22nd March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets ushed higher, presumably on expectations of looming rate cuts by various central banks. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says a move in August is still expected by the Bank of England, as the two hawks who voted for a rise last time fell in line in the latest meeting. In fact, one central bank did cut rates overnight. But what about the impacts of local data yesterday. Was the Australia unemployment number too low for the RBA, and the NZ GDP read too soft for the RBNZ? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 21st March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation has eased, but not enough yet says Jerome Powell, as the Fed keeps rates on hold, and Fed members point to a slightly higher long-term nominal rate. NAB’s Taylor Nugent dissects the announcement and the press conference, before looking ahead to the Bank of England. UK inflation yesterday was a little weaker than expected. But not enough to change the dial at the BoE. Services inflation remains persistently high. Also today, GDP for New Zealand and Australia’s employment numbers. So, what would the RBA like to see today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 20th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With the RBA and bank of Japan out of the way, markets are readying themselves for the FOMC tomorrow, with yields drifting a little lower today in anticipation. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA has removed its tightening bias – now, nothing is ruled out or in. The next move is expected to be down, but the question that remains is when? The bank of Japan lifted themselves out of negative interest rates, as expected, but Ken says they did a good job of dampening any expectations of a rigorous tightening cycle. Tomorrow, the FOMC meets, with the focus on the dots plot – how many and what will be the endpoint? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 19th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Two central banks meet today, but the outcomes seem predictable. The end of negative rates by the Bank of Japan seems to have been well signalled, and the RBA continues its restrictive policy settings. NAB’s Skye Masters says we continue to look to November as the first possible rate cut in Australia. Meanwhile bond yields in the UW continue to push higher, ahead of the FOMC meeting later in the week. Phil asks if 2-year yields could push as high as 5%. Elsewhere, positive data from China yesterday, the ZEW survey for Europe today and Canada’s inflation print. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 18th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB This week we hear the interest rate decisions from the RBA, the Fed, the BOE, the Bank of Japan, Norge’s Bank and the Swiss National Bank. Will any of them move rates? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril looks at what to expect and when, including the growing possibility that we’ll see a lift in rates and an end to yield curve control by the BoJ. Generally, though, the tone seems to be higher for longer as many indicators are showing inflation is taking a while to get under control. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Aussie agriculture, scaling up to thrive 22:07
22:07
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt22:07![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 18th March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . A pandemic, water shortages, labour supply issues, the cost of finance, China’s slow recovery, climate change. It seems like the agricultural sector faces massive headwinds, but NAB’s Lea Jurkovic says there’s still an immense amount of optimism within the sector, with plenty of upside potential in Australia’s export markets. That optimism is shared by Lachlan Marshall, who runs the Yurunga Farms Partnership, a diary and cattle operation near Deniliquin. He joins Phil and Lea to talk about how he is using mechanisation and data to drive efficiencies, that enhance the productivity and long-term viability of his farm. “I’m scaling up to thrive rather than survive, he says on this week’s Weekend Edition. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 15th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Reality is starting to bite. Pesky inflation is taking longer to come down, even as other data is showing slower economic growth. NAB’s Ken Crompton says its only one day, but stronger producer prices and slower retail growth is your classic stagflation data print. It’s clearly too early to make that call, but markets are worried, with equities taking a hit and expectations falling further for a rate cut in June. Bond yields have oved markedly higher, although oil prices are rising as the IEA forecasts stronger demand this year, which hardly fits the stagflation argument. But clearly, whatever the outcome, it’s taking longer to get there! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 13th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Another big auction overnight showed strong appetite from investors for long-dated US bonds. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the resilience in US data refuses to give up and the timeline for when the Fed will cut rates continues to get pushed back. Markets are not even fully pricing a cut in June now and there’s the question as to whether the Fed dot plot next week will drop to two cuts this year. Meanwhile, expectations are rising for a rate rise by the BoJ next week, as wage negotiations in Japan show many workers are seeing pay rises in excess of 5 percent. Gavin talks through the likely impacts on currency markets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 13th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation came in hotter than expected ion data out overnight, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it was only marginally above expectations, rounding just makes it seem worth. It’s not changing expectations for a June cut, he says. The NAB Business Survey provided more signs of why the RBA isn’t in any rush to cut rates, with a reacceleration in business conditions. We also discuss what was said by the RBA’s Sarah Hunter yesterday, the weakness in UK jobs and a Bloomberg story that has the BoJ on the cusp of lifting rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Last minute nerves ahead of US inflation 14:58
14:58
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:58![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 12th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI is out today. A core monthly read of 0.3 percent is expected. JBWere’s Sally Auld says that’s too high to meet the Fed’s target so we’ll need to see CPI down to 0.2 percent over successive months before they can be certain they are on track. Japan’s GDP growth was lower than expected, although the country is now officially out of recession, but only by the tiniest margin. Could the BoJ really be planning rate hikes in such an environment? Iron ore prices took a hit overnight, whilst gold and Bitcoin are at or near all time highs. There’s clearly a lot of uncertainty out there. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 The US jobs numbers that surprised, then didn’t 14:17
14:17
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:17![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 11th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US payrolls data was initially a surprise on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was an initial algo-driven market response, before the human s stepped in on realising that substantial downward revisions in the previous two months meant jobs data was weaker than anticipated. Hence, expectations for a June cut haven’t really shifted. Canada’s employment data, which was higher, passed by with little fanfare. China’s inflation numbers were a surprise over the weekend, coming in at the highest month on month level in a year. Japan’s GDP read is expected to be revised higher today, but the biggest influence on the BoJ strategy will come later this week with the early results of spring wage negotiations. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Equality Japanese Style 23:08
23:08
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:08![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 18th March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . You would be right in assuming that equality for women is less prevalent in Japan than it is in Australia. There are 200 listed companies on the Nikkei who don’t have a single female board member. But things are changing. Melanie Brock is an Australian who has lived in Tokyo for 25 years, helping businesses invest and partner in Japan. She serves on four boards, having just been appointed to Asahi Group Holdings. Today she talks through the challenges women face, but also why the economy depends on the career advancement of women. And there’s at least one lesson Australian businesses can learn from Japan about how to advance diversity in the workforce. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 All eyes back on June with hopes of no payrolls surprise 17:05
17:05
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:05![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 8tth March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB’s Gavin Friend says you only need to look at the falls we’ve been experiencing in yields lately to recognise that there’s a renewed acceptance that rates will be cut, probably by the middle of the year, in the US and Europe. At the ECB meeting Christine Lagarde talked about good progress being made on bringing down inflation, as they released a downgraded inflation forecast. In front of the sente Banking Committee in the US Jerome Powell talked about not being far from having the confidence to cut rates. That’s why all eyes are back on June. Of course, a surprise result in non-farm payrolls tonight could easily change all that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 7tth March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar has led the major sin currency gains today. NAB’s Skye Masters says it follows a fall n the US dollar, with the DXY at its lowest level in over a month. The rise in the Aussie happened despite a lacklustre GDP report for Australia, although the results won’t change the dial on RBA timings. The BoC kept rates on hold and gave no timing on when cuts will happen. The message everywhere – including in Powell’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee – is that more reassurance is need that inflation is heading sustainably lower. That’ll almost certainly be the message delivered at the press conference after the ECB meeting early tomorrow morning (Australia time). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US caution amidst stock shocks and services slowdown 15:19
15:19
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:19![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 6tth March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US ISM services index showed a larger than expected slowdown. As NAB’s ray Attrill describes, that’s driven interest in bonds, helped by another fall in US equities, driven by falls in tech stocks. Here’s also been a rise in Bitcoin and gold, both hitting record highs. Interestingly, the services PMIs for Europe were generally a little better than expected. So does any of this change the timeline for anticipated cuts by the Fed and ECB? Today, Australia’s Q4 GDP is the big number to watch, along with the US job openings numbers. And get the popcorn ready for the results from Super Tuesday, but I think we know who wins. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tursday 4th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares have taken a rest for now. Perhaps a $1.8 billion fine on Apple over music streaming has reminded big tech investor that regulators have power. Today, NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the impact of yesterday’s GDP partials for Australia, much of it driven by mining, with lower inventories and higher corporate profits. The Peoples Congress is underway in China today, with reports suggesting Xi Jinping will confirm that the growth target for 2024 remains at 5 percent. The US releases its PMI Services number today, but the market is really hanging out for Friday’s non-farm payrolls. It’s Super Tuesday in the US today, but we already know who is going to win, for each side of politics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 4th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US Manufacturing ISM was weaker than expected don Friday, with new orders, production and employment all contracting. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether this accounts for a fall in front end yields on Friday and whether its impacted expectations for the timing of the first Fed rate cut. In Europe the latest CPI numbers show inflation is coming down more slowly than expected, ahead of the ECB meeting this week. Could this push back the timing for cuts? It’s a quiet start to a busy week – a week that includes US non-farm payrolls and Services ISM, Australia’s GDP and a House testimony for Jerome Powell. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Stage 3 tax cuts, not exactly tax reform 23:44
23:44
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:44![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 1st March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week Kate Griffiths from the Grattan Institute warns that the recent budget surplus is hiding the fact that the long-term balance between Australia’s tax intake and the expectations for government spending don’t stack up. As the population ages and the ratio of those in work reduces, the tax base will narrow whilst demand for aged services will expand. Kate argues the case for a roader tax system, less reliant on income tax as the main source of government revenue. Phil asks hat tax reform should set out to address. Is it just about increasing revenue, or is wealth redistribution just as important? And what about the tax efficiency. How many tax loopholes need to disappear. Then there’s taxes with unintended detrimental consequences. There’s a lot to consider. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 1st March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were relieved that the US PCE deflators came in in-line with expectations. But, as JBWere’s Sally Auld points out, the six-month annualised rate is ticking up a little, hence the desire by th Fed to see more data before committing to rate cuts. Ion a busy episode today we look at European inflation, Australian retail sales, house prices, Canada’s GDP and words from one BoJ governor suggesting the time is right to lift rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 RBNZ is done with hikes, Aussie retail will bounce back today 15:26
15:26
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:26![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 29th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets responded sharply to the RBNZ hold decision yesterday, even though it was largely expected. The tone from the press conference that followed left most assuming there would be no more hikes, even if it’ll take a while for rates to come down. NaAB's Ken Crompton talks through how the markets reacted. He also suggests an above-consensus bounce back in Australian retail numbers today. US core PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – is also expected to lift a little, whilst US GDP was revised down ever so slightly. And happy leap day! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 All quiet at the casino, all eyes over the ditch 14:24
14:24
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:24![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 28th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Japan’s inflation is down, but not quite as much as expected. That’s raised expectation from some that the BoJ will use this as a reason to lift rates. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether they need to. Japanese exports seem to be benefiting from a lower Yen right now. Meanwhile US equities have plateaued. Warren Buffet described it as a casino, suggesting investors focused on stocks that it would be hard to imagine doing without. Like coca cola. Vested interest perhaps? Today the focus is on what the RBNZ does. NAB and BNZ are not expecting a rate rise, but the language at the press conference should be interesting. Inflation is proving troublesome. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 27th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Tomorrow is looking a lot more interesting than today, with Australian CPI and the RBNZ. Overnight though, we had more talk from the ECB, including a curious comment from the Bank of Greece Governor, seemingly reinforcing the suggestion that June is the month for cutting. Today we see CPI numbers for Japan, but it’s unlikely to influence the timing of any moves by the BoJ, should they ever move. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through all of that, plus the outcome of bond auctions in the US overnight, with yields pushing a little higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 It won’t happen overnight, but it will happen 14:38
14:38
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:38![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 23rd February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Central bankers are being very elusive when it comes to the timeframe for cutting rates. The Fed’s John Williams said on Friday that he believes rates will come down this year, even though markets are expecting a move in June. The ECB’s Christine Lagarde says she wants more persistent evidence that inflationary pressures have dissipated, even though the German economy shank by 0.2 percent last year. And there’s the outside chance that he RBNZ will lift rates this week, although that seems unlikely. Meanwhile Australian CPI and retail sales this week will be waited for with anticipation by the RBA. So, when it comes to rate cuts, it won’t happen overnight, but it will happen. Trivia question: who said that? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Getting Ready for Trump 22:42
22:42
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt22:42![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 23rd February 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The US has been enjoying healthy share prices and a market preparing for lower interest rates, with the much-vaunted soft landing. But how much of this good will could disappear if Donald Trump returns to the White House next year? The FT’s Katie Martin says markets haven’t been preparing much just yet because, well, it may not happen. But there’s also the question of how big the gap is between what Trump says he’ll do and what eventuates. Katie suggests corporate America will advise him of the consequences if he were to push ahead with a 55% tariff on all Chinese imports. We can assume he will be far less supportive of green initiatives. We also know he tends to measure economic success by share market performance. The unknown element is his approach to foreign policy. That might mean it'll be time to derisk. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 23rd February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The caution we’ve been seeing in the US share market has dissolved completely since the release of NVIDIA earnings yesterday. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the euphoria has even spread as far as Japan. But is too much good news taken by the Fed as another reason to delay rate cuts? You could also question whether the ECB will delay longer than June. The minutes of their last meeting note the risk of cutting too early if greater than the risk of a delay. Today the diary is light, with retail sales for New Zealand the focus. A weak result would surely remove the chance of a hike by the RBNZ next week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Are the US, UK and Europe all looking at June? 14:54
14:54
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:54![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 22nd February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC minutes this morning didn’t provide many surprises, except warning that inflation could pick up and more evidence was needed. All reasons to delay cuts until, possibly June. Meanwhile, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, the ECB has almost committed verbally to a June cut. Now we’re seeing louder voices inside the BoE warning that delaying cuts will have harmful impacts on the economy, which has the potential to also move to a June cut. No such luck with the RBA though. Yesterday’s wage inflation data, even though it came in almost as expected, it’s still too high for the policy makers to feel comfortable. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 21st February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Canada’s latest inflation rate came in lower than expected overnight, prompting the inevitable speculation about an earlier cut from the Bank of Canada. April perhaps? Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters whether this means they’ll be the first major central bank to move lower, as others seem to be pushing expectations back a little. Although UK gilt yields dropped after the BoE’s Andrw Bailey said to a government hearing that market expectations for a rate cut this year are not unreasonable. Today Australia’s wage rice index is released. NAB expects it to come in line with RBA forecasts, but we’ll see. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Second decimal point moves for Presidents Day 10:38
10:38
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt10:38![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tueday 20th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been quieter than quiet the last 24 hours. The US has been off for Presidents Day, and elsewhere only glacial movements in bonds and currencies. Why? Well, as Phil discusses with NAB’s Ken Crompton, its because there’s not much in the way of data releases to move markets along, those that are open. On eof the strongest currencies was the New Zealand dollar, that saw a slightly stronger than expected PSI read yesterday. Ahead we have the RBA minutes and Canada’s CPI to look forward to. Beyond that, we’re clutching at straws a bit! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Another sign of a bumpy path for inflation 14:00
14:00
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:00![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday19th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was some dismissing of the US CPI numbers last week as not being the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. But the producer prices on Friday, which do input into the Fed’s preferred Core PCE number, also showed prices ticking higher in January. Evidence of the bumpy path that the Fed’s Michael Barr was talking about on Thursday, perhaps? But NAB’s Taylor Nugent says, as with the CPI numbers, seasonally adjusting January’s numbers is notoriously difficult. In any case, we won’t see further market reaction in the US today because its Presidents Day holiday. So, a quiet start to a week which includes the latest flash PMIs and Australia’s wage price index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Big tech. Which business model wins? 23:51
23:51
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:51![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 16th February 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . In the consumer space there are only really two ways tech firms make money. They either sell stuff – usually subscriptions – or they offer free content supported by advertising. Advertising is as old as the hills so you might be mistaken for thinking that its days are numbered. But Debra Aho Williamson, an independent tech analyst from Seattle, says online will continue to grow its share of an expanding global advertising market, and AI will help improve the efficacy of the budget of advertisers. But advertising isn’t the only way forward and each of the major tech firms has their own approach. Listen in to the discussion to help gather your own thoughts on who is in the strongest position right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Surprising data does little to move the dial for central banks 14:44
14:44
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:44![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 15th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There have been some surprises in the last 24 hours but it seems none of it will change the dial for central banks. Australia’s unemployment ticked above 4% yesterday, but JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why you have to be cautious about January numbers and why it doesn’t really add to the pressure for the RBA to cut sooner. The latest GDP numbers in the UK, which showed the country has been in recession for the last two quarters, but the BoE was quick to respond on the need to see inflation falling more consistently before they act. Japan also moved into a recession which surely challenges the notion that the BoJ will lift rates. And US retail sales showed the biggest fall in almost a year. So, lots of data, but nothing to change central bank thinking. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Back to expecting faster cuts (RBA/RBNZ excepted)? 16:18
16:18
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:18![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 15th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Central banks seem to be sounding a little more dovish, with the exception of the RBA and RBNZ of course. NAB’s Ray Attrill says market expectations are driving away from the higher-than-expected US CPI read, like a speeding car. Hence, bond yields have bounced back today. They rose even further in the UK where inflation came in lower than expected. With GDP numbers later likely to show an economy in recession, can the BoE really hold out much longer? It’s a movable feast, and in the midst of that movement NAB has released the latest FX forecasts, which effectively pushes the growth in the Aussie dollar back a quarter, against a stronger US dollar. But there are a few significant caveats, discussed on today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 14th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI numbers showed that inflation isn’t coming down as fast as expected. The market reaction was swift as markets repriced their expectations for the timing of rate cuts. Equites fell sharply, bond yields rose as the US dollar gained ground.. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are good reasons not to take too much signal from the January data alone. Perhaps the exercise will be repeated with UK inflation numbers later today although there a small rise is already expected. Today New Zealand’s price indices will give an early indication of inflation, as the market pares back rate hike expectations after the surprising call by (another) major bank this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 13th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Maybe not as exciting as the Super Bowl, but the CPI numbers out in the US early tomorrow morning (Australia time) could have a more significant impact on the US economy and the speed of cuts from the Fed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the headline rate is expected to start with a 2, instead of a 3, but will it fall faster than expected putting pressure on the Fed to move more quickly. Ahead of all that, we get the NAB Business Survey, the ZEW survey results for Germany and the Eurozone, and employment numbers for the UK. At last, the data calendar is hotting up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 The CPI anticlimax, NZ’s rate worries and new highs for US shares 12:57
12:57
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt12:57![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 12th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Talk about an anti-climax! Markets were on tenterhooks ahead of the revision to US CPI on Friday but, it turns out, there was nothing to see. NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out that the revision was one basis point higher for the three-month average. Now markets can focus on the next CPI print, which is out this week. Friday’s excitement in our region came from one bank’s call for the RBNZ to raise rates in February and April. Michelle Bullock didn’t rule out a rate rise for the RBA when she fronted up to parliament on Friday, but it seems unlikely. It’s a quiet start to the week, with China on holiday for the New Year, but Tapas takes us through some of the data highlights for later in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Cashing in on Australia’s tourism revival 20:41
20:41
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt20:41![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 9th February 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australian tourism was enjoying record highs for visitor numbers before the pandemic. Then we closed the borders. Visitor arrivals are picking up again, but are still not back to 2019 levels. But Samantha Palmer, general manager of Austrade’s visitor economy and client programs division, says we’ll break that record for visitor numbers in 2025 and exceed the spend record this year. That makes tourism infrastructure a solid investment promotion. But what sort of product is required and how can you finance all that upfront investment when a brand-new offering could take a while to provide cash returns? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 9th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed and several other central banks are united in their message that there’s no rush to cut rates. Thomas Barkin was the latest to deliver the message from the FOMC, suggesting they won’t ‘toggle’ rates until they’ve had a few more months of data. Meanwhile, NAB’s Skye masters says as we await more data bonds are drifting, looking for direction. There will be some trepidation about the possibility of a revision to US CPI numbers later and there are more solid numbers to help support whatever side of the timing of the toggle you sit on. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Equities soaring higher, central bankers talk longer 13:44
13:44
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:44![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 8th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Once again central bankers have been out pushing the message that rates will not be coming down quickly. What’s more, the neutral rate is likely to be higher than before. There was a lacklustre response from bond markets, which managed to absorb $2 billon worth of new issuance. The market moves have been in equities, with the S&P close to, but not quite hitting - 5,000. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this is misplaced optimism. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 No hurry for RBA cut, maybe even a hike? 13:41
13:41
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:41![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 7th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a busy day for Australia yesterday, with the RBA announcement, the statement of monetary policy, and the press conference. For all of that there wasn’t any wild fluctuations in markets, despite the hawkish tilt and the spectre of a rate rise given as one possible course of action if services inflation remains too resilient. But, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, most of the market action was in US bond markets, where yields fell significantly overnight. It’s the lack of tier one data, says \gavin, driving speculation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 6th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Stronger than expected ISM services data yesterday has dampened further the likelihood of a March rate cut. Meanwhile, China is taking more steps to stem the outflow from equity markets. Australia, meanwhile, readies itself for the first RBA announcement of 2024. But its not just an announcement, it’s the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy and a press conference. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks us through this new look RBA performance and why it could prove to be choppier for bond and currency markets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 5th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US payrolls numbers on Friday showed a surprisingly large upswing, mirroring the ADP numbers earlier in the week. The data also showed a higher-than-expected increase in wages. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this puts paid to any hopes of a March rate cut, with the first fully priced cut expected in June. He adds there’s a chance that inflation data could be revised up a little later this week. The BoE’s Huw Pill meanwhile has been promoting the need to wait longer before cutting, adding to the underperformance of Gilts on Friday. It’s a quiet start to the week, but the main interest locally is obviously the RBA tomorrow, with the rates announcement coinciding with the publication of the Statement of Monetary Policy, followed by a press conference by Michele Bullock. A lot to take in. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Emerging trends in Australia’s post-COVID property market 20:37
20:37
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt20:37![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 2nd February Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Sydney and Melbourne property prices are down from their peaks, whilst Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth reached all time highs last month. But for how long? Will Sydney and Melbourne bounce back? Phil talks to Eliza Owen Core Logic’s Head of Residential Research about recent trends in the property market which, despite everything, continues to enjoy rising prices, but for how long? What impact is migration having on demand for dwellings in Sydney and Melbourne. What’s driving the widening gap between house prices and apartments? And what are the trends Eliza thinks we’ll see this year that might surprise you. Even if you are not a property investor, or considering a housing purchase, this is compulsory listening for anyone gathering ammunition for Australia’ favourite dinner party conversation – house prices! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 2nd February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It wasn’t a unanimous decision by the Bank of England overnight. Some of the board wanted to lift rates, the majority wanted to hold, but there was one who still wanted to push them higher. All in all a March cut is now extremely unlikely according to NAB’s Gavin Friend, who says those pricing in 100bp of cuts this year have probably got it wrong. We also look at the fed’s decision, one day on. Shares are higher and bond yields lower, so it seems the prospect of delays in cuts hasn’t phased the markets too much. The latest ISM report painted a slightly more optimistic picture for US manufacturing, but prices remain a concern. Wages will be watched keenly, of course, in the non-farm payrolls out on Friday in the US. Jerome Powell said this week he was looking for more “good data” – maybe this will be one of those reports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 1st February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB At the FOMC today a unanimous decision was made to keep rates on hold, but there was suggestion that they’d be cutting rates anytime soon. JBWere’s Sally Auld says this will dent the optimism of those hoping for a lower rate in March. Australia’s inflation numbers yesterday are also unlikely to change the stance of the RBA next month. The Bank of England meets later today – three of the nine board members voted for a hike last time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 The Fed’s quandary: A soft landing but jobs plentiful 14:53
14:53
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:53![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 31st January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are less than 24 hours away from the next FOMC meeting. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says an indication that the Fed was dropping its tightening bias would help validate the higher expectations for cuts in market pricing. But will it happen? Even though inflation is falling, consumer confidence is also on the rise and there are more than 9 million jobs looking for employees. Also today we discuss Australia’s retail numbers yesterday, what we can expect in today’s CPI and the latest forecasts from the IMF, which paints a slightly rosier picture in their latest World Economic Outlook. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 30th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB For all the delaying tactics of central bank speakers, markets are still pricing cuts earlier for the fed and the ECB. So who goes first? NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s a two-horse race, although markets are pricing in early cuts in Europe. That could all change, of course, depending on what’s said by the FOMC tomorrow. Europe’s destiny will be somewhat shaped by it’s GDP numbers today, which are expected top show that the Euro area is in recession. There’s also discussion about Australia’s retail numbers out today, which are expected to show a fall in December in response to the bounce in sales (because of sales) in November. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 29th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB You want busy, we’ll give you busy.The FOMC and the Bank of England meet this week and five of the magnificent 7 report earnings. We’ll also see the latest Australian CPI read and payrolls data from the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to catch up on data from the tail end of last week, which saw US core-PCE dip below 3%, whilst European data continues to show more of a downturn, with signs that the ECB may be changing its tune on waiting till June to cut rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Home or away – where to head with shares in 2024? 18:28
18:28
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:28![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 25th January 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . By and large investors will have seen slim returns from Australian equities in 2023, but they would have made far more from US shares and, in particular, the magnificent seven. So, does the same apply for this year? Phil asks Gemma Dale, Director of SMSF and Investor Behaviour at nabtrade, who says 2023 wasn’t too bad when you factor in dividends. But 2024 could be better. Rates are coming down at some point, bond yields are falling and, you’d hope, the consumer will have more cash to spend. All of that, you’d assume, points to a rosier picture for equity investors, but which sectors will do the best? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 25th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Theres a more risk positive mood this morning NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says its being driven by moves in China to drive an economic recovery, including a half percent cut in the reserve requirement ratio for lenders. There’s been more attention ,though, to talk of a (long awaited) fiscal stimulus. Japan’s currency moved higher as investors mulled over the commentary form the bank of Japan, suggested a move into positive rates was looking more likely. Whilst the Bank of Canada highlighted that the days of rate rises are over for now, without giving any timeline for cuts. In PMIs Europe showed further weakness against US strength. Another reason for the ECB to cut rates sooner rather than later, but few expect that to happen at tomorrow’s meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 24th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar gained a bit of ground briefly yesterday on reports of China launching a rescue package to placate their retail investors, with shares now the furthest they’ve ever been behind the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s a question mark as to whether they are addressing the symptoms rather than the root cause. The European economy has had more bad news, with loan data showing companies still are not borrowing, whilst consumer confidence is falling. Is the ECB wrong to consider delaying cuts till June? Today’s PMIs will shed some light on what has been a widening chasm between US and European economic health. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 23rd Janaury 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities hit new highs again overnight, reflecting the optimism for an economy that’ s beating inflation and escaping recession. Even the continuance of weak data and pessimism for the Chinese economy is failing t impact US ebullience. NAB Skye Masters says bond markets were more contained, reflecting a day light on news or data prints. There’s not expected to be a policy change fr the Bank of Japan today, but there is a press conference and we get to see revised quarterly forecasts which could help determine when or if there will be future policy changes. Locally, the NAB Business Survey is out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Mondaay 22nd January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The S&P hit its first high since January 2022 on Friday, driven largely by the major tech stocks. Phil asks whether there’s just too much exuberance? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s an important week for tech earnings this week, including Netflix, Tesla and IBM. US positivity was also reflected in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which came in much higher than expectations. The UK and Europe are on a very different trajectory, with a significant fall in retail sales in December possibly leading the economy into a recession. This week Athony Albanese is expected to announce further stimulus measures to ease the cost-of-living crisis which could delay the speed of rate cuts by the RBA. The detail is expected to be ironed out before his National Press Club address on Thursday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Will ETFs give crypto an air of respectability? 21:59
21:59
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt21:59![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 19th January 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Our guest on the Weekend Edition this week says Bitcoin started as an anarchic response to the rapidly rising quantity of Fiat currencies. UK economist and writer Frances Coppola still believes the value of Bitcoin is tied to the policies of central banks, particularly when it comes to cycles of QE and QT. But does it really? Many argued it was a hedge against inflation, but that never came to pass. So what changes with Bitcoin now the USD regulator has cleared the way for ETF’s to offer the chance for regular investors to easily buy or sell out of Bitcoin linked securities? Is it now a more respectable investment choice? Will it lose its volatility? And, if it does, what’s the point of it? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US jobless claims fall, so did Aussie jobs 15:01
15:01
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:01![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 19th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US bond yields continue to push higher as the expectation for delayed cuts mounts. The weekly jobless claims will help the Fed’s case here, with a surprise fall showing how tight the labour market still is. But these are volatile numbers, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, particularly over the holiday period. The same applies to the surprise drop in Australian employment numbers yesterday, although the trend is still showing a rise and there’s nothing to change the RBA’s path for now. Plus, peace hopes for the Middle east and a preview of our first Weekend edition of 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 18th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are pricing more and more for delays in rate cuts. NAB’S Ken Crompton says even with pricing for cuts of 13bp in February that still shows some “irrational exuberance”. The expectations for delays in rate cuts follow Christopher Wallers comments earlier in the week that, with the economy seemingly in good health, why the rush? That view was supported by a range of positive data releases, including retail sales growth continuing into December. In the uK markets were a little surprised by a rebound in UK inflation, delaying chances of cuts by the BoE. In Australia NAB has revised its expectation for a rate rise by the RBA, but there’s a chance that it will stick with its current rate to the tail end of the year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 17th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields have ushed higher in the US after the Fed’s Christopher Waller made a speech on the economic outlook at The Brookings Institute, called ‘Almost as Good as it Gets, but will it last?’. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he appeared less dovish than anticipated, hence expectations for rate cuts have been pushed back. Now the question is, will any central banks be cutting in the first half of this year? Today we look at the latest European data, the UK’s muddy employment numbers, as well as looking ahead to a busy 24 hours, with a swathe of China data, UK inflation and US retail number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 European rates higher for longer, on the edge of a potential recession? 15:34
15:34
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:34![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 16th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB German GDP fell 0.3% last year, even if they did manage to narrowly avoid a technical recession. Europe’s industrial production also fell in the latest data. Yet ECB members continue to talk down expectations for rate cuts at least until the middle of the year. Phil asks JBWere's Sally Auld about the wisdom of keeping rates higher in an economy that is slowing, and does that explain why markets are out of kilter with the central banks rhetoric?. In the US there will be a air bit of focus on what the Feed’s Christopher Waller has to say on rate cuts. There’s also discussion about why the PBoC didn’t cut their medium-term lending facility. Data wise we see Australia’ s consumer confidence today, along with UK wage data, Canada’s CPI and NZ’s quarterly survey of business opinion. Plus the results of the Iowa Caucus. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 How far ahead is US on the race to kill inflation? 15:23
15:23
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:23![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 15th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were big falls in 2 year Treasury yields on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this can be attributed to softer than expected producer prices in the US, which feeds through to the PCE deflator number that the Fed uses as its inflation measure. So what has this done to rate cut expectations? Ray says we’re still not back to where we were in the lead up to Christmas. Inflation is coming down much more slowly in Europe. Will it be delayed further by the crisis in the Red Sea? China published weaker loans data at the end of the week, and the PBoC is expected to lower the medium-term loan rate today. We’ll also see whether there’s any response from China to the Taiwan election result whilst the US holds the first Republican Caucus, in Iowa, where Trump is well ahead in the polls. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US CPI not so soft, NAB’s new Q4 CPI forecast 17:35
17:35
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:35![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 12th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation was a little bit of a surprise. Whilst the headline rate was expected to rise a little, it came in higher than forecast, whilst the core rate didn’t fall as much as had been hoped for. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the Fed’s super core measure is the part of the inflation picture that refuses to come down, all of which could impact the speed at which the Fed will bring rates down. Meanwhile NAB has revised the forecast for Q4 CPI for Australia on the back of this week’s November data. It provides a CPI rate lower than the RBA’s forecast, so does that mean we can expect rates in Australia come down faster? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Inflation softer than expected, but hold your horses on rate cut hopes 14:47
14:47
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:47![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 11th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian inflation fell faster than expected in November. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent what this means for the rate path from the RBA. He says the monthly data is a relatively new indicator and is still volatile, so we should be cautious in interpreting the numbers and certainly there wasn’t anything to make the RBA too comfortable. We can expect a more definitive market response to US CPI later on. If the number falls below consensus and highlights potential for a faster cutting cycle from the Fed expect that to drive the US dollar lower. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 10th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have started the year rather cautiously. Bond yields have held up and equity markets are clearly nervous, suggesting many investors are questioning the speed of the path to rate cuts, particularly in the US. Could Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls read last Friday add to the case for delays by the Fed? NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests the markets might be too cautious. We also look at yesterday’s retail numbers for Australia and expectations for the November inflation read out this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: A year big on surprises. Will there be more in 2024? 23:14
23:14
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:14![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 22nd December 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . In our final edition of The Morning Call for the year JBWeir’s Sally Auld joins Phil to look back about the surprises of 2023, and to give some of her predictions for 2024. Few expected interest rates to rise as high as they did, but even so, there was a lot of recession talk. Yet, somehow, we avoided it, with much greater expectations for a soft landing. So, is that the story for 2024? Perhaps, but Sally springs five potential wildcards on us that we should have in the back of our minds. 2024 is certainly not going to be a year low on risk. This is our last Morning Call of the year. Thank you for joining us each weekday, and we hope you’ve enjoyed the addition of the Weekend Edition. We’ll be back on Wednesday 10th January ready to interpret whatever the new year throws at us. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Has the US already met its inflation target? 16:47
16:47
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:47![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 22nd December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Well, you could argue that if the US wants to get inflation down to 2% that its already there. Why? NAB’s Ray Attrill points out that the latest quarterly PCE read – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – has been revised down to an annual figure that falls within their target range. The monthly number for November, out tonight, could well reinforce this argument and add more weight for rate cuts early in 2024. In other news, Joe Biden has been discussing increased tariffs on the import of EVs from China. Australia could feel the repercussions of that and could be one factor stopping the Aussie dollar reaching 70 US cents anytime soon. Today, Japan’s CPI and the latest revision to UK GDP. Just like the US numbers, could they also be a downward surprise and reopen recession speculation? This is our last daily edition until January 10th, but this afternoon JBWeir’s Sally Auld gives her thoughts on where we’ve been this year and the prospects for 2024. To be listened to at your leisure over the Christmas break. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 UK inflation falls faster than expected. Hard for the BoE to hike now. 16:17
16:17
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:17![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 21st December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB UK inflation fell much faster than expected and more than the Bank of England predicted. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says its clear that there will be no more rate hikes in the UK, reflected in markets today with a sharp rise in equities and a significant drop in bond yields. There was another Christmas gift in the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence read which showed heightened optimism for the new year. The only negative sign was, perhaps, a rise in the jobs plentiful index which could arguably delay the fall in wage growth. Meanwhile, the EU is clearly ready to move on from worrying about inflation to focusing on government debt, with finance ministers today agreeing that all member states should return to a debt to GDP ratio of 60%. Good luck with that! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 RBA going for the mid-point, BoJ going nowhere, Canada’s inflation bounces back 15:23
15:23
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:23![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 20th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA minutes yesterday were more hawkish than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the central bank is aiming for the mid-point of their 2 – 3 percent target range, rather than the top, raising the prospect of rates staying higher, or a more concerted effort to bring inflation down faster. This adds to the speculation that interest rates will be lifted in February, although a lot will depend, of course, on Q4 CPI, out late in January. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan did and said little and Canada’s core inflation bounced back up a little. A reminder to all that it isn’t beaten yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 RBA minutes and BoJ; could be a whole lot of nothing, but there again ... 13:41
13:41
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:41![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 19th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US bond yield rose higher overnight, along with equities, as the prospect of a slower path of rates cuts by the Fed sinks in. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s a settling down after the rally in bonds we’ve seen in the last month or so, helped by more Fed speakers overnight talking down the prospect of early rate cuts next year. In other news, the German IFO reader can be added to the list of releases showing a European slowdown. The focus today will be on the RBA minutes. Skye isn’t sure there will be much to gain beyond the statement earlier in the month, but never say never. The same applies to the Bank of Japan meeting today – they are not expected to lift rates, or give an indication of when they will, but they have provided a pre-Christmas surprise before. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 18th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US Fed’s John Williams said on Friday that it was too soon to be looking at rate cuts, despite the FOMC dots plot showing members expecting several cuts next year. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland about Williams’ motivation and the market response. Meanwhile, as data from China remains soft the PBoC is pumping 800 billion Yuan into the economy. Tapas explains the approach and whether it will work. European PMI data came in softer than expected, whilst the UK seems a little more resilient in the services sector. But with a central bank governor reluctant to move too quickly, is stronger data good or bad for Britain? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Generative AI is here, ready or not. 19:33
19:33
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt19:33![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 15th December 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . When it comes to the use and deployment of AI a Deloitte report reckons many Australian businesses are slow to catch on to the risks and opportunities it presents. This week Phil Dobbie talks to Rhiannon Yetsenga, a manager in the Economic Analysis and Policy team at Deloitte Access Economics, about a recent survey of 2,500 Australian employees and students, which highlights how Generative AI in particular is transforming the workplace. Rhiannon says, unlike many business transformations, this one is being employee led. Companies need to be aware that it is happening, learn how to manage risk and take advantage of the opportunities it presents, as a first-step to more complex AI projects. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 BoE and ECB staying on top of the mountain 18:21
18:21
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:21![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 15th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Whilst the FOMC signalled the likelihood of several rate cuts next year, NAB’s Gavin Friend says the Bank of England and ECB are giving nothing away, with both saying there is more to e done to bring inflation under control. One European bank even managed to slip in a rate rise ahead of Christmas – the Norges Bank pushed rates up to 4.5%, concerned about a rebound in inflation. Markets continue to respond to the dovish FOMC meeting yesterday, even with jobless claims and retail numbers both showing surprising resilience in the US economy. There’s lots more economic data today, including the December flash PMIs for Europe, the UK and US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Aussie wins against drop in the US dollar as Fed gets ready to cut 16:23
16:23
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:23![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 14th Decenber 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A Fed that is happy to hold, and is expecting to cut three times next year. That’s the takeout from the FOMC meeting this morning. Markets have responded swiftly, with sharp moves down in the US dollar and bond yields, with the Aussie dollar making the biggest gains this morning. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says yields were already falling on the back of slower rises in producer prices, adding to the evidence that inflation is easing in the US. The Bank of England meets later today, along with the ECB. Both are expected to stay put, with the UK having much lower than expected GDP growth in October. Australia’s employment numbers are released today, after yesterday’s Seek job ads show more labour market easing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Three key trends in the super industry 21:45
21:45
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt21:45![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 24th November 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Consolidation will continue in the superannuation industry as a way of provided better returns for members. That’s the prediction from Mercer’s Chief Investment Officer Kylie Willment, talking to Phil on the Weekend Edition. Mercer recently merged with BP Super, of course, and Kylie says they are always on the look out for other opportunities. They are also focusing more on unlisted assets, that can provide value with more predictable returns. She talks through their key areas of focus. Finally, the Achilles Heal of Australian super is how funds manage the post-retirement relationship with members. Kylie says it’s what stopped Australia getting an A+ grade in the latest Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 24th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were relatively quiet overnight with the US off for Thanksgiving, but stronger PMI data from Europe created some interest, pushing the Euro higher, but NAB’s Ray Attrill still says German can expect to enter a shallow recession. The pound performed slightly better because it provided the only PMI number that actually indicated growth. The Riksbank surprised by keeping rates on hold and right-wing anti-EU candidate Geert Wilders won the most votes in the Dutch general election. Today US PMIs will provide a useful comparison to the European numbers, and one month out from the next BoJ meeting we’ll get to see Japan’s CPI numbers today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Bullock’s hawkishness. Will one rise be enough? 18:20
18:20
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:20![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 23rd November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian inflation is now driven by local factors. That’s what the RBA’s Michelle Bullock said at the Australian Business Economists dinner last night. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it doesn’t sound like a central bank that’s done with interest rate hikes, and points to how we are sitting 100 basis points below our economic peers. So can we really expect to get away with just one more rate hike? Meanwhile softer data from the US, mixed, curiously, with rising inflation expectations. Oil is choppy ahead of the delayed OPEC+ meeting – Sally explains the significance of the delay. And the UK’s min-budget delivered little except a forecast for growth next year, light on business investment and heavily dependent on government consumption, whilst the Chancellor’s rhetoric promised the opposite. European PMIs are the big numbers today but trade will be light tonight as the US starts Thanksgiving. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 22nd November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC minutes were cagey when it came to the prospect of rate cuts. The RBA minutes were the same, with Michelle Bullock also reiterating her concerns about persistent wage inflation. And the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey told UK politicians that markets were getting ahead of themselves when it came to pricing rate drops. Hence the mood is a little more sombre, with falls in equities and little movement in bonds. Oil has also been up and down today ahead of OPEC+ at the weekend. There are geopolitical factors at play too – a budget crisis in Germany and fears Iran is supplying ballistic missiles to Russia. Today it’ll be interesting to see if the inflation expectations from the University of Michigan survey fall back down, after their surprise lift last time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 21st November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a big 20-year Treasury auction today, which went better than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets had assumed a flood of new issuance in a short week would suppress demand, but that wasn’t the case. Elsewhere, the overseas Yuan hit its highest level since early September. More positive sentiment from China is helping lift iron ore prices further, which is positive for the Australian dollar. Two sets of minutes are out in the next 24 hours – from the RBA and the FOMC. The Fed minutes were quickly outdated by the softer than expected inflation data in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 20th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a quite day on Friday with very little of earth-shattering consequence to report. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk about just how devoid of new sit was. We did see a downside surprise in UK retail numbers but, as flagged on Friday podcast, it was a very wet month. Loil is up on the news that OPEC+ will extend its production cuts into the new year. Today is equally as quiet – if not more so – for data releases, but things do hot up later in the week with the release of PMIs, just as America sits down to its roast turkey dinner. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 17th November 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Ethical investment, or ESG; it’s being talked about more and more. It seems more people want to be involved, so long as it provides the returns they expect. This week Phil is joined by Maria Loyez, Chief Customer Officer at Australian Ethical, a fund manager specialising in responsible investments. How does she see the balance between making the right choice for the planet and seeing a worthwhile return for investments by your business, your customers, or your own personal fund? Can you make money and save the planet? Yes, you can, says Maria so long as you recognise that ethical investments do not perform in the same way as an index fund. There’s also discussion on the findings in this week’s ‘2023 Responsible Investing Report’, published jointly with industry research firm Investment Trends. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 17th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB So, after the excitement of softening inflation in the US comes concern that its being accompanied by a delayed slowdown in the economy. That was certainly reflected in some of the second tier US data, and could explain a further fall in oil prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Walmart reported weak sales too in October but highlighted an expected period of deflation in the months to come. Put all the pieces together and markets are increasing the expectation for rate cuts next year. It'll be a while before the RBA cuts rates, but at least yesterday’s surprise increase in employment numbers wasn’t enough to raise the likelihood of a December hike. Instead they’ll wait for the next set of inflation numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursdsay 16th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Goldilocks continues to deliver what America wants, with softer producer prices and only a slight move down in retail sales. Equity markets continue to enjoy the party, although bond yields are back on the rise. Hardly surprising given the scale of the moves this week, says NAB’s Tayor Nugent. A fall in oil should also not be over-interpreted, given the recent moves. Has the Goldilocks effect also moved to the UK. Okay, the economy isn’t as strong, but CPI has come down faster than expected, adding to the belief that the BoE has probably done all it need to do. The same isn’t being said about the RBA. Will they be influenced by today’s employment numbers? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesdsay 15th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation fell further than most expected – although NAB had predicted a downward surprise. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about the market response, which has been felt in equities, bonds and the dollar. It follows two big drops in Eurozone inflation, adding to the view that the worst is over and central banks can start focus on dropping rates rather than lifting. The US CPI comes in the thick of a range of critical data, including UK employment, Australian wages data, UK CPI, Japan’s CPI and a plethora of China numbers too. No wonder the markets are busy, and keen to party. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 14th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The NY Fed’s consumer inflation survey overnight had expectations fall a little over last month, in contrast to the University of Michigan survey last week, which had inflation expectations rising. So who do you believe? You believe the hard numbers, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, which are out tonight (Australia time). Market moves have been fairly restrained in the build up to the US CPI release, but the response could be quite marked. Ray says it’s worth looking to the second decimal place to get a real handle of the speed of travel. Locally the NAB Business Survey is out today along with the latest consumer sentiment read. The UK has employment numbers, the NFB small business survey is out and the ZEW survey for Germany. A busy day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 13th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It seems the more dovish sentiment in the US has been reversed by Jerome Powell suggesting the Fed might have more to do to keep inflation in check. NAB’s Skye Masters says the weak 30-year auction on Thursday has also seen yields push lower, along with upward pressure on inflation expectations. Moody’s also moved the US outlook from rating from stable to negative, which might have impacted yields at the margin. In Australia the Statement on Monetary Policy provided revised forecasts for Australia, which could be used as an argument for more rate hikes. Yet the language of the Statement was quite dovish. No wonder markets are confused. The key release this week, is US CPI tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Risky Business, Confusing Times 23:39
23:39
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:39![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday November 10th 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . With the risk of interest rates going even higher, and a slug of the Australian population yet to move onto variable loans, are we about to see a sudden change in consumer spending as more households step off the fixed rate cliff. This week Sonia Straumann, NAB’s Executive, Credit Risk, says households have already modified their behaviour in readiness. But how much of their spending now is dependent on eating into cash reserves built up during the pandemic? And how will small businesses cope with a sustained period of lower consumption. Sonia says that’s one of the big risk factors, alongside commercial real estate, construction and farming. What else is keeping her awake at night? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Interest wanes at 30 year Treasury auction 13:29
13:29
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:29![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 10th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields kicked higher in the US after a $24 billion 30 year auction attracted less interest than expected. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the auction yields were 5 basis points higher than pre-sales. We discuss why interest in long duration bonds is falling. Markets are also preparing for words from Jerome Powell later today, following fairly dovish talk from other Fed speakers. Today the RBA releases forecasts in the Statement of Monetary Policy. So, what will Tapas be looking out for? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 9th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It looks like there’s heightening expectations of a global slowdown, evidenced by further significant falls in oil prices today and an end to the equities rally in the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill says one former ECB Governor has added to the melancholic tone by suggesting Europe is heading for a recession next year, whilst inflation expectations one year out have risen by half a percent in one month. But generally, today, a few non definitive words from central bankers, otherwise, it’s been slim pickings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US inflation data doesn’t change the game 14:49
14:49
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:49![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 13th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB In numbers out overnight the headline US CPI rate fell a little, but no more than expected, whilst core inflation remained stuck at 4%. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it again showed the dichotomy between core goods, which fell 0.3% in the month, and services which rose 0.5% in the month. It’s not expected to change the Fed’s decision tomorrow, or the outlook for cuts in the first half of 2024, but that could change with the dots plot from the FOMC. Elsewhere, the latest ZEW survey from Europe showed a surprise lift, whilst oil continues to slide lower. In short, not a huge reaction to an unsurprising CPI, and all now rests on what’s said and forecast tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 12th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Yen is the biggest currency move overnight, losing some of the recent gains. NAB’s Ray Attril says it comes from a Bloomberg story overnight which doused expectations that there will be a ‘surprise’ policy change next week. Otherwise, markets are largely treading water ahead of the US CPI number later today, followed quickly by the Fed later in the week, along with four other central banks. Also on today’s podcast we look at four decades of a free floating Aussie dollar. It’s 40 years ago today that the AUD floated freely for the first time. Ray takes us through some of the highs and lows. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 11th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US non-farm payrolls data came in a lot higher than expected on Friday, with 200k extra jobs added last month. Wages grew a little more than expected. Not what you’d expect for an economy that is supposedly cooling. So, were the numbers too hot? Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this changes assumptions around the timing of rate cuts by the Fed. He says some of the new jobs were one-offs, and the trend is still downwards, but markets have repriced their expectation for cuts in the early part of next year. There’s also discussion on Europe’s new AI laws and China’s worse than anticipation deflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Getting Back with Britain 23:09
23:09
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:09![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 8th December 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . It’s been fifty years since the UK signed an agreement with the European Economic Community. That had a profound impact on Australian exports. We’ve built a far more diverse export base since then, of course, but now, since Brexit, with a new free trade agreement (FTA) in place, there’s a chance to redevelop our trading relationship with the UK. Elisabeth Bowes, Australia’s Deputy High Commissioner to the UK, was deeply involved in negotiating the UK Australia FTA. She said, it made her proud as a Queenslander to see, back in September, the first tariff free shipment of sugar in fifty years to arrive in the UK. On this edition of The Weekend Edition Elisabeth outlines how Australian businesses can benefit from the agreement, whether its exporting goods, procuring UK government business, establishing a foothold within Europe, or recruiting expertise from Britain. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Is BoJ preparing a pre-Christmas surprise? 15:02
15:02
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:02![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 8th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Probably not, is the answer to our headline, but NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets are pricing in a heightened expectation of the BoJ moving from negative rates sometime soon. The sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields yesterday and overnight almost wiped out the falls over the last month, but yields remain well below early November, when they almost touched 1%. Elsewhere, Australia’s trade surplus increased but it was largely due to a fall in capital goods imports, reversing the recent rise. Europe showed more signs of a slowdown, with German industrial production down and Q3 GDP revised lower. The focus now is now on non-farm payrolls. Ken says there’s more upside potential for bond yields if we assume markets have been too optimistic in their pricing of rate cuts next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 All signs point to slower growth and falling inflation 15:48
15:48
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:48![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 7th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Falling inflation and lowering interest rates is definitely the consensus view now. It comes at the cost of weaker demand, evidenced by the continued drop in oil prices. NAB’s Ray Attrill says falling fuel costs are no doubt helping European equities, which finished higher today whilst US share indices struggled to get traction. Markets are now pricing in 150bp in cuts from the ECB next year, although Ray suggests that’s overly optimistic. Australia’s GDP growth was much slower than expected last quarter, but there’s not been a strong response to it on currency and bond markets. The consumer is still finding money to keep spending and productivity isn’t making the gains the RBA would like to see. Now the focus is on jobs, with the weekly US jobless claims tonight ahead of the monthly non-farm payrolls tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 A hold, an epiphany and jobs market easing 14:20
14:20
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:20![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 6th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA kept rates on hold, didn’t change too much in their statement, but Australian bonds still rallied. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it was a curious reaction, but just about every market wants to avoid contemplating that rates could go higher even if that might still be the case here. Globally the mood is being driven by weaker CPI data. The OECD revealed that it has fallen to the slowest pace since October 2021 in its member countries. And ECB hawk Isabel Schnabel has completely changed direction, suggesting rates there will fall next year. In the US the Services ISM rose a little and the jobs market eased a bit, helping contain wage price concerns. In short, it was generally a good news day. Although equities are still mixed and oil continues to head south. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 5th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With shares falling and bond yields rising, markets might have taken a step too far when it comes to anticipating the timing of rate cuts next year, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says cuts are still expected. They have just priced in a little more risk ahead of a series of key data releases this week, including payrolls (Friday) and services ISM (today). The RBA meets today and the accompanying statement could be a little dovish, given weaker inflation data, but there’s resilience in consumer and housing data that makes NAB believe a February hike is still likely. As well as the US Services ISM tonight, there’s also the JOLTs numbers (job openings and quits) which has had the power to move markets recently. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Yields falling further and Powell can’t stop them 14:21
14:21
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:21![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 4th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB When it comes to predicting rate cuts by the Fed, will the chair Jerome Powell be the last one to shift his position? During his ‘fireside chat’ on Friday he said it would be premature to assume they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, markets clearly aren’t paying too much attention, with yields falling sharply lower at the end of the week. Although there were two words in Powell’s talk that could support the idea of cuts sooner rather than later. Meanwhile two central banks are expected to keep rates on hold – the RBA tomorrow and the Bank of Canada later in the week. And focus now switches to employment numbers, with US non-farm payrolls data out on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Ross McEwan on the economy, housing, cybercrime, AI and home working 18:56
18:56
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:56![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 1st December 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . On The Weekend Edition NAB CEO Ross McEwan says his focus next year is on keeping customers safe from cybercrime, fraud and scams. Phil Dobbie also asks him about the role of AI to help counter cybercrime as well as help in the day-to-day operation of the bank. In a wide-ranging discussion, they also look at the economic outlook for 2024, fixing Australia’s housing affordability and getting people back into the workplace. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Euroflation falls, the US dollar strikes back 13:26
13:26
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:26![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 1st December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB European inflation fells a little faster than expected. It’s knocked the Euro a little today, but JBWere’s Sally Auld says for the Euro to really see some gains it’ll take a combination of US rate cuts alongside strong growth outside the US, to help drive down the dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar ticked up a little today, with no surprises in the Core PCE numbers, and some unsurprising high-for-longer sentiment from Fed speakers. Jerome Powell will no doubt follow the same script in his fireside-chat later today. Aussie yields rose quite a bit higher overnight, perhaps because data is showing some resilience, particularly in housing. China’s PMI’s yesterday though, showed just how fragile their recovery is. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 30th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian inflation was lower than expected yesterday. It was the same in Germany. And US quarterly PCE prices were revised lower. All signs that seem to be indicating price growth is slowing and central banks will be pushing rates lower. But there are some caveats to all that. NAB’s Gavin Friend reminds us that the monthly CPI numbers in Australia are heavily influenced by the sample rotation, which will have underplayed services inflation, so it’s too early to take NAB’s prediction of another hike off the table. In New Zealand, even though the RBNZ kept rates on hold yesterday, higher demand from immigration could force another move higher. Today’s US monthly core PCE deflator and the inflation numbers for the whole of the Eurozone will give a clearer picture. For now though, bond markets are enjoying the ride. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Something is giving, and it’s the pace of the US economy 15:02
15:02
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:02![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 29th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed lower as markets continue to expect rate cuts by the Fed next year. Tapas Strickland says NAB’s own modelling based on recent data supports significant cuts next year. The Fed’s Chris Waller, who had previously flagged concern about the pace of growth saying “something’s gotta give”. Now he’s saying it’s the pace of the economy that is giving and the Fed is in a good place to return inflation to 2%, eventually. Comments like that have helped push bond yields lower. Today the focus is on the first bits of CPI data from Europe, and Australia’s monthly CPI read. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 28th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s an in-between day, with little ion the way of economic news, but inflation data just round the corner, in the form of Australian CPI and US PCE. There were sizeable auctions of 2 and 5 year Treasuries this morning, with softer demand, but that hasn’t driven the direction of bond markets says NAB’s Skye Masters, because yields are down. Instead it adds to the mood that the Fed will cut rates, perhaps early next year. Softer US data, such as weaker new home sales and drops in employment in the Dallas Fed manufacturing index, add to the supporting evidence. Today Australian retail sales are released, and we talk through some of the findings in the latest NAB Online Sales Index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Falling dollar helps the Aussie, but only so far 14:18
14:18
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:18![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 27th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB At the end of a quiet week we saw the US dollar fall a little further on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this reflects the expectation that there will be no further hikes from the Fed. The Aussie dollar hasn’t realised the full potential, largely because of question marks over the speed of the Chinese recovery. There was mixed economic news at the end of the week; US PMIs were a little softer than expected, particularly for manufacturing. It seems Black Friday online sales were strong, and retail sales in New Zealand and Canada were better than expected. So, will too much resilience add to inflation woes. The BoE’s Huw Pill says supply constraints continue to be the issue so they need to hammer demand down to meet it. The key number this week will be the PCE inflation data out of the US. Nobody wants to see that tick up again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 8th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA lifted rates, as expected, yesterday, with the possibility of another hike to come. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the central bank had always assumed it was different to others, with the flexibility of a longer runway to bring inflation down without damaging the economy. That premise is being challenged now as inflation itself is taking longer to come down, so the RBA could still be lifting rates just as other central banks start to acknowledge market expectations for rate cuts next year. So late to the party, and last to leave? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 7th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB still firmly expects the RBA to lift interest rates today. As Talor Nugent observes, in a Bloomberg survey, 29 of 32 economists are expecting a hike. It’s a safer punt than anything on the Melbourne Cup today, although markets are still pricing a 30% chance that the RBA will keep rates on hold. We also get a sneak peak at the RBA’s forecasts today, with the detail provided in Friday’s Monetary Policy Statement. Meanwhile, markets have turned a little, after last week’s bond and equity rally, built on the growing belief that the Fed will drop rates starting mid-2024. Elsewhere, the BoJ Governor has reiterated a lift in rates this year is very unlikely – hardly a surprise given its November – and Robert Holzmann has said the ECB could still raise rates, if necessary. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 6th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Softer ISM data and weaker than expected jobs data in the US on Friday has seen a rally on bonds, pushing yields down and taking the US dollar down with it. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, not only have markets reduced their expectations for future hikes, but an increasing number of investors are expecting rate cuts by the middle of next year. It’s a different story for Australia though. The RBA is likely to show the job isn’t done with a rate hike tomorrow, with the possibility of another to follow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Ann Sherry on driving change in uncertain times 23:00
23:00
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:00![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 3rd November 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . We’ve been through a tumultuous time, with COVID, inflation, geopolitical unrest. Go back a few years we were also struggling with sluggish growth. It’s been a tricky time for businesses, so what is the magic sauce that has seen successful businesses navigate their way through and come out on top? Ann Sherry has a wealth of business experience. She’s worked in banking, tourism, and education. She is Chancellor of Queensland University of Technology and sits on the boards of NAB, the Enero Group and the Port of Townsville. She headed Carnival Cruises during a period of turmoil, but managed to reinvent the brand and restore goodwill. On this edition of The Weekend Edition Ann talks about how companies should be reinventing themselves to cope with changing habits. And how investors can determine which companies are heading in the right direction. She suggests there’s not enough focus on forward indicators that show you how well a company is performing internally. It’s a useful and entertaining twenty minutes for business managers, entrepreneurs, and investors alike. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Back to bonds as BoE forecasts a growth hit for Britain 15:41
15:41
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:41![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 3rd November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields are much lower across the board today. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if bonds are back in fashion. They are for now, says Ken, but he doesn’t discount the idea that we’ll see 10 year Treasuries hitting 5% sometime soon. Pauses from central banks are certainly helping to push risk assets higher, with equity markets doing particularly well. The Bank of England and Norge Bank both kept rates on hold yesterday, with the BoE revising its UK growth forecast down to zero for 2024. Tonight, non-farm payrolls will be watched closely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 2nd November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed kept rate son hold this morning, but there are no signs that they have finished yet. Jerome Powell was clear to point out every meeting remains live. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the statement has been updated to include financial conditions as one of the determinants of future policy, reflecting the recent rises in long end bond yields. Will those yields influence future policy decisions? Powell said it was possible if a few conditions are met. Later on, the Bank of England and Norges Bank – both expected to remain on hold. Will the RBA next week be out of kilter with the other central banks? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 BoJ loosens its grip, Fed will keep a tight hold 16:36
16:36
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:36![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 1st November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of Japan is loosening its grip on yields. Today NAB’s Skye Masters explains what the move means and how markets responded. A sharp move down in the Yen suggests that more was expected. Also today further weakness in Europe – in growth and inflation – shows the ECB has almost certainly run its course, and more talk of how quickly they will start to lower rates. Meanwhile, all eyes today on the FOMC tomorrow morning, just before Thursday’s podcast and why, even though the will keep rates on hold, it’s not plain sailing for the US by any means. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Escalation fears ease, RBA’s expectations rise, Europe’s inflation falls 14:58
14:58
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:58![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 31st October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities have risen today, alongside a fall in oil prices, as hopes rise that the Gaza war will not see contagion throughout the region. Meanwhile, Germany delivered slower GDP growth and falling inflation, ahead of the Europe wide data today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the pressure is off the ECB, who could likely reached their terminal rate, although at least one ECB member is saying there could be more. There will certainly be more from the RBA after yesterday’s retail numbers in Australia, which came in stronger than most had expected. Plus, the Bank of Japan meets today, amidst expectations that they will lift the cap on long end yields. We also we get confirmation of the size of US bond issuance today – and the makeup of that issuance later this week. Each event will have an influence on bond yields and currencies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 30th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Are equity markets ahead of the curve? US firms have reported better than expected earnings and consumer spending is still growing. Yet shares are lower, with S&P entering correction territory. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the tide is starting to turn. Earning projections are less promising, US person income is lower than spending and consumer inflation expectations are rising. The escalation in the war on Gaza over the weekend will add to concerns. It’s a tricky time for the FOMC meeting this week, and for the Bank of Japan tomorrow, faced with rising inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: In it for the long haul 19:05
19:05
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt19:05![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 27th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . In these uncertain times, of high inflation, high interest rates, changing consumer patterns, there are some things that seem a little more certain, like our shift to renewables and our need for investment in infrastructure as the climate changes, populations grow and consumer behaviour is transformed to the online world. Georgia Hall, ESG Analyst at Maple-Brown Abbott, joins Phil to talk about how they have given a priority to investing in long-term infrastructure plays, with geographic monopolies. What are the key ingredients for ensuring you have a safe long-term investment? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 27th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US GDP came in higher-than-expected driven by strong consumer spending. But the core PCE index grew at the slowest rate since Q4 2019. So, inflation cooling, consumption rising. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether it will last and, if so, why are equiites struggling to much? Meanwhile, there’s growing consensus that the RBA will lift rates. We look at what was said in front of Senate Estimates yesterday. And the ECB on hold. Did they have any choice? Plus, some more big earnings results from the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Aussie CPI & ECB; sentiment sours a little 17:11
17:11
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:11![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 26th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation numbers for Australia were higher than NAB’s expectations, which were higher than market expectations. The number is also well above the RBA’s own forecasting which, NAB’s Gavin Friend say, leaves them with little choice than to pursue at least one more rate hike, starting next month. Elsewhere markets have returned to a more cautious approach, as hopes fade of a diplomatic resolution to the situation in Gaza and Israel. The Bank of Canada kept rates on hold and the ECB may well do the same, but have they both reached their peak? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Some hope, jobs confusion and Aussie CPI 16:02
16:02
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:02![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 25th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are displaying a degree of hope this morning, presumably because there has been no ground movement by Israelis into Gaza, but press reports seems somewhat less optimistic. Meanwhile, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the latest PMIs show the continuing divide between the US and Europe, with the EZ Services and Manufacturing numbers both pulled lower. The UK employment numbers have become somewhat unreliable, meaning the BoE has less certainty in one of the key indicators it tracks. For the RBA the most important number is released today – CPI for Q3. NAB believes the number will be high enough to see interest rates lifted in a couple of weeks. Plus, earnings results for Alphabet and Microsoft. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 24th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were no strong data releases over the last 24 hours to give markets direction and some have clearly made the bold assumption that no ground movement into Gaza is a sign that tensions are easing. As a result, we’ve seen bond yields pull off recent highs, equity markets rise, gold fall and the US dollar down. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the geopolitical uncertainty and the sell-off in bond yields has rattled investors and there’s plenty of reason to sit on your hands, which is why we are range trading, albeit with large intraday swings. Todays PMIs might give a little direction, whilst locally eyes and ears will be on Michelle Bullock, the new RBA Governor. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Have yields peaked? Will central banks ease off the pedal? 13:49
13:49
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:49![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 23rd October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US 10-year treasuries got up to 4.996% last week – not quite making it over 5%. So, does that mean they have peaked? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Ray Attrill at the start of what could be a volatile week, as uncertainty remains over the conflict in Israel and Gaza. The key data point for Australia this week is the Q3 CPI numbers, which Ray says will be the arbiter as to whether the RBA does lift rates at the start of November. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Loretta Mester suggested one more hike should do it for the US. Then job done? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Could Europe Bring Down Rates Faster? 22:27
22:27
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt22:27![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 20th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . We invited UK-based economist Vicky Pryce on to talk about why Europe was struggling with growth whilst the US was on the road to recovery? How much is down to the issue of applying a single monetary policy across a diverse range of EU member economies? How much is the fact that Europe hasn’t injected as much fiscal stimulus as the US, with its Inflation Reduction program? All of the above applies, but Vicky suggests, with inflation on the way down, the ECB, BoE and other central banks shouldn’t be delaying lowering interest rates, to enable economies to recover. Central banks need to change their rhetoric so bond yields subside, and they need to ease off quantitative tightening until a more appropriate time. A very different perspective to the IMF that has warned that easing too quickly can cause inflation to re-emerge. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 20th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a day that has seen sell-offs in equities, treasuries and the US dollar. So where is the money going? NAB’s Ken Crompton says some of it is still pouring into oil, as uncertainty mounts over the Israeli-Gaza war, but we’re also seeing a little diversity between the US, which continues to show signs of resilience, and Europe, where the news is less positive. Australia saw a fall in the unemployment rate yesterday, so there’s also discussion about what that means for the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 19th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields reached new multi-year highs overnight, with sharp rises on 10 years in the US and the UK. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, this time, it isn’t further central bank speculation driving yields higher, it’s the rising tensions in the Middle Easta and concerns about oil prices. Nonetheless, yields might be influenced by the much-anticipated Jerome Powell talk in the early hours of tomorrow morning. The RBA’s Michelle Bullock had a fireside chat yesterday – we give the lowdown on that and what to expect in Australia’s labour market numbers today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 18th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are now more focused on central bank expectations, with the hope that world leaders can contain the war in Israel and Gaza. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the stronger than expected US retail numbers, as inflation expectations rise. The RBA are also sounding more hawkish, with the minutes of the last meeting talking of lower tolerance for the slower return of inflation. UK CPOI today could fuel a hike by the BoE as well. But, two central banks are likely to be on hold, with Canada and New Zealand both seeing inflation come in lower than expected. Plus, which well-paid deejay is hanging up his headphones? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 17th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have backtracked on their measure of risk emanating from the middle east, with hopes that some sort of resolution will be brokered to avoid a regional war. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s a response to the fact that things haven’t escalated in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, in the world of central banks, markets are waiting in anticipation for a Jerome Powell address later in the week to see if he mirrors the suggestion from others at the Fed that higher yields could negate the need for further hikes in rates. It’s a different message from the BoE’s Huw Pill who said the question of more rises was ‘finely balanced’. Lots of data today, including US retail sales, CPI for NZ and Canada, UK wages data and the RBA minutes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 16th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East is seeing a rush to safe-haven assets, including a sizeable lift in gold prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland wonders whether many investors had been caught short, buying in on central banks’ higher for longer narrative, without factoring in the risk of geopolitical uncertainty. The Israel Gaza conflict s now being taken seriously, with sharp rises in oil as questions remain around how much of a regional war could emanate from the unrest. Meanwhile, the question remains about how well contained inflation really is? The Michigan survey showed inflation expectations rising slightly. Rising oil prices will only add to that. Plus, an important week for Australian releases, Tapas talks us through it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Is super delivering on the promise? 23:34
23:34
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:34![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 13th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Our super contributions are designed to ensure we have a happy retirement, so is that working? The median balance for a man in his early sixties is $212k, for a woman its $158k. When will we reach an adequate level for most to lead a comfortable life? And, as the size of Australian superannuation assets grows, where do the investments go? Phil talks to Diane Somerville, Principal for Superannuation Consulting at Deloitte Australia about the growth of Australian superannuation, consolidation within the industry and the impacts of COVID. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 13th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation came in stronger than expected, pushing yields higher and strengthening the US dollar. NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests that markets are questioning the suggestion that higher yields would negate the need for further rises. Elsewhere oil has been steadied somewhat by diplomatic efforts from the US and China. UK GDP came in weak, and there’s a wealth of China data today. Also on the podcast Phil talks to Jennifer Mackinlay, Austrade’s General Manager for Europe, about how they are flying the flag for the Aussie renewables industry. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 More caution from the Fed, very little in Gaza 14:49
14:49
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:49![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 12th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Whilst central banks, particularly the Fed, are increasingly cautious about further rate hikes, the RBA’s Christopher Kent hinted that more might need to be done to slow the Aussie economy. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says a hike in November is likely to get the market speculating on another one early next year. Meanwhile, there’s very little caution being displayed in the Middle East, with volatility in oil prices as the question remains as to whether Iran will be implicated in any way and face sanctions that could cut global oil supplies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 11th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There have been a few surprises so far this week. Obviously the Hamas attacks on Israel is a bad start, and there’s every chance that will escalate further. Secondly, the more dovish approach from Fed speakers, heightening the expectation that the Fed will not lift rates again this year. JBWere’s Sally Auld says there’s still a string chance that another hike will happen, and that the US will face a recession down the track as a consequence. The third surprise, if it happens, is a one trillion Yuan stimulus measure reportedly being considered by China. All, of that, ahead of the US CPI numbers later this week, which may add to the list of surprises. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Conflict uncertainty mixed with rate optimism 13:32
13:32
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:32![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 10th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The market action this morning is perhaps less pronounced than could be expected, given the scale of the conflict between Israel and Gaza. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says some of the turnaround in US equities came from Fed speakers who seem to be shifting their bias away from more hikes to keeping cash rates where they are. That’s acted as a distraction from the main event, but individual shares match what you’d expect from a war setting, with airlines down, defence stocks up, and the same with oil. Locally, the NAB Business Survey is out today. Will it show more resilience that cold further enhance the case for further hikes by the RBA? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Hot jobs numbers add to treasuries sell-off 13:40
13:40
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:40![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 9th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday surprised many. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the 336k new jobs was well above expectations and pricing for another hike by the Fed this year increased slightly. But a clearer picture of the direction of the Fed can be gauged after the release of US CPI later this week. Canada’s employment numbers told a similar story on Friday, coming in higher than forecast. There will be some unease around today, depending on developments in the confrontation between Hamas and Israel, as to whether Iran becomes embroiled in it all. That could push oil prices higher today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 7th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . There are tentative signs that China’s domestic economy is picking up. On The Weekend Edition Sheana Yue from Capital Economics in Singapore says early indications are that the Golden Week this week has seen increased demand for housing and other goods and China could meet is 5% growth target this year. So, is there more reason to be optimistic about the world’s second largest economy? Sheana explains how, in the mid-term, the focus is less on major construction projects and more on IT and green technologies. Listen in to find out what that all means for the Australian economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 What do we want to see in the jobs data? 16:24
16:24
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:24![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 6th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There has been so much volatility in bond and equity markets lately it’s hard to imagine that the non-farm payrolls data tonight won’t prompt some sort of response. But what are we expecting? NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the latest movements, which have been fairly relaxed over the last 24 hours. The Fed’s Mary Daly has suggested that rising 30 year yield shave been doing the work for the Fed, which could reduce the need for another hike. In the UK Bren Broadbent has suggested weaker data could see off any further hikes. And a lot of recent trade data suggests weakening demand, echoed by falling oil prices again today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Less jobs and cheaper oil pauses bond and equity sell-off 14:17
14:17
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:17![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 5th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause today, with yields down a little and a largely positive picture for equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through what’s driving this change of sentiment. He doesn’t believe it’s one key thing but it could be down to lower jobs numbers in the latest ADP report, sharp falls in oil prices, no big surprises in the US Services ISM and the danger of a US shutdown back on the list of concerns. All of these factors could lessen the chance of another Fed hike before Christmas, but it’ll be Friday nights non-farm payrolls data that really sets the direction for the start of next week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US yields jolt higher and all that that entails. 16:00
16:00
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:00![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 4th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday we asked how much higher US yields could go. The answer today is more than yesterday. Yields pushed higher again, the US dollar gained strength on the back of it, with the Aussie dollar, a day after the RBA kept rates on hold, being punished the most. So, how much higher for Treasury yields now. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says its not unusual for the 10 year rate to reach the same level as the cash rate, so yields could easily push above 5%. How does the RBA react if stronger yields in the US keep hitting the Aussie dollar? Plus, the significant moves in the Yen today as well. All because the JOLTs data came in higher than expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US yields push higher, BoJ steps in, RBA to stand firm 14:16
14:16
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:16![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 3rd October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US bond yields have pushed higher this morning on the weekend’s news that a shutdown of US government has been pushed back, but the same yawning chasm exists between both parties. Yields have also risen on the latest Manufacturing ISM, which came in stronger than expected. NAB’s Skye Masters says we are seeing a strong response to any data, as markets look for clues about when rates will be lifted, and how long before they start moving down. Another case in point is today’s rise in UK Gilt yields, as the BoE’s Catherine Mann suggests inflation might be more persistent than their own forecasts. Today Michelle Bullock chairs her first RBA meeting, but there is a low expectation that rates will rise – not yet anyway. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Is NetZero transitioning us to higher inflation? 21:40
21:40
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt21:40![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 29th September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The races is on to meet the 2050 NetZero target, and the 2030 target of 82% renewable energy. Australia isn’t the only country racing for the same finish line. Virginia Christie says the demand for inputs to build the infrastructure, and the expertise needed to manage it, will be inflationary, in the same way the mining boom was. Virginia is a governing body member of WA’s Economic Regulation Authority and, before that, spent many years at the Treasury and the RBA. Both of those bodies face a challenge about how, not only to meet the 2050 target but how to navigate through the unavoidable high inflation environment that precedes it. It’s a thought-provoking episode that’s definitely worth a listen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 29th September 2023 US confidence seems to be building, whilst Europe is still in the doldrums. US equities have risen, perhaps helped by the hopes of a visit by President Xi later this year. Europe could have made more of falling inflation in Germany, but is perhaps more concerned about rising debt in Italy. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the differences, which has also seen an increasing spread in yields across the Atlantic. The imminent government shutdown could have a lot to do with it. It’s a busy day for data, including US PCE deflators and, over the weekend, China’s Caixin PMIs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Oil’s low stockpiles, sticky Aussie services inflation 15:39
15:39
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:39![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 28th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s It’s the same story again today – equities hurting, the US dollar higher and bond yields reaching 16 hear highs. What’s changed today is a sharp rise in oil prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s a great deal of nervousness that supplies in the US have been destocked too far, down to levels last seen in 2014. Meanwhile, bond yields continue to push higher with little to dissuade investors away from the high for longer mantra. Hence, a town-hall session with Jerome Powell today will attract a lot of interest. Meanwhile, sticky services inflation in Australia yesterday added to the likelihood of an RBA hike in November. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Will Aussie inflation knock the RBA off its perch? 14:22
14:22
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:22![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 27th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are still a little directionless, with no substantial or surprising data to evoke any substantial moves in any asset classes. The only real movement is in equities, which continue to fall now the higher for longer message has sunk in. NAB’s Gavin Friend describes it as a wall of worry. But will we see a shift in direction from today through, as the rest of the week is filled with inflation data, starting with Australia. Could the services CPI be enough to force the RBA to make a move? Not just yet, reckons Gavin. Later in the week European CPI will add to the global picture about whether or not we are over the worst of it, before the US core-PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 26th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were big moves higher in bond yields overnight, particularly at the long end. It’s been significant bear steepening, says NAB’s Skye Masters, pointing to the hawkish statements from central banks indicating rates will remain at restrictive levels for quite some time. That’s happening despite more indicators suggesting there is growing weakness in the global economy, but bank boards will want to see reductions in inflation before they change that stance. If the bond markets seem a little directionless right now, maybe inflation numbers later this week will help them see the light. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 25th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The path of central banks does seem to be having as many twists and turns as a Dickensian novel. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the path of bond yields at the end of the week showed how the UK is taking a divergent path from the US, where central bank speakers are still suggesting there will be more hike(s) to come. PMIs on Friday continued to show that the US economy seems to be faring better than Europe. But the US soft landing rhetoric is being challenged, with equity markets taking a hit, the automotive workers strike likely to have more impact and the prospect of a government shutdown at the end of the week all the more likely. This week the data in Europe, the US and Australia will be focused on inflation, naturally. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 The Weekend Edition: The long road back for small business 23:00
23:00
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:00![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 22nd September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . It’s a tough time for small businesses in Australia and the road back from COVID seems to be a lot longer one that most expected. In this episode of The Weekend Edition Phil talks to Ana Marinkovic, NAB’s executive general manager of the Small Business Bank, who describes a two-speed recovery, between those who have been able to cut costs and embrace online, and those who haven’t. Those unable to find cost effective labour are being hit particularly hard. But many businesses hit with rising costs are reluctant to push their prices up, taking a margin hit instead. So, looking closely at your operating costs and not being afraid to reprice are some of the key takeouts from Ana on this week’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 BoE joins those on hold. Who will break first? 17:34
17:34
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:34![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 22nd September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of England has kept rates on hold for now. Many other central banks have met over the last 24 hours – some have been on hold, some continue to raise rates, one has even cut rates. But bond yields continue to rise and equity markets have taken a hit. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it’s a sign that investors aren’t convinced that the tightening cycle is over just yet. US continues to display resilience that could suggest the Fed will do more. Even New Zealand, where the RBNZ has pushed rates have gone further than many, GDP has shown a strong comeback. So, the future is still uncertain. The Bank of Japan is next to meet. It’s safe to assume they’ll be on hold but, again, for how much longer? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 21st September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The response to the FOMC announcement this morning was swift, with 2-year Treasury yields hitting a 17 year high. The equity markets switched into negative territory too. Why? NAB’s Gavin Friend says the fact that rates are on hold wasn’t a surprise, it was the rise in the median rate forecasts for next year and the year after. Higher for longer is slowly sinking in, but now, perhaps, it's even longer than many had imagined. Gilt yields took a hit as UK CPI came in much lower than anticipated. Could this mean the BoE will keep rates on hold? And a swag of other central banks today, plus New Zealand’s GDP. They are expected to claw out of recession, but for how long? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 20th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB This time tomorrow the Fed will have decided, and the assumption is that they will keep rates on hold. But for how long? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s an assumption of at least one more hike, which is being strengthened by further signs of persistent inflation. Oil nearing $100 isn’t helping and neither is higher than expected inflation numbers from Canada. But the soft-landing story remains, demonstrated further by revisions to the OCED’s GDP forecasts, which has upped growth for the US and downgraded Europe. We also delve into the RBA minutes from yesterday, looking for clues about the direction from here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Too much speculation, too much liquidity, not enough oil? 14:19
14:19
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:19![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 19th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As we wait for the barrage of central banks in the second half of the week, starting with the Fed, a Reuters report suggests the ECB is looking at reducing the high level of excess reserves which could be impacting the effectiveness of monetary policy. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s only natural for them to consider reducing their balance sheet once they near the end of the rate cycle. In the US, meanwhile, the BIS has warned of too much leverage in short positions on US Treasury Futures. Nothing that the Fed hasn’t previously warned about, says Skye. A bigger concern is the rise in oil, with some commentators suggesting it could peak at $100 this week. How does that play in the strategy for central banks? And, locally, RBA minutes. Surprises are unlikely this time round, but you never know! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 18th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed isn’t the only central bank making a call this week. There’s also that expected hike from the Bank of England, plus the central banks of Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. Plus, the RBA minutes and day one in the new job for Michelle Bullock. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says opinions are still very divided, even within central banks, about whether they need to continue lifting rates to beat inflation. Hence yields lifted further on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 The Weekend Edition: It’s tough at the top of the mountain 19:54
19:54
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt19:54![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 15th September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The BoE’s Huw Pill recently likened the path of interest rates to Table Mountain, as he gazed out the window of a conference in Jo’burg. The FT’s Markets Editor Katie Martin says markets have finally accepted the high for longer mantra from central banks, but says it’s not been an easy time for analysts in financial markets, particularly those who had been telling clients to prepare for the US recession that never came. Does that mean it won’t come? And if it doesn’t, what’s the impact of prolonged strength in the US dollar which could add to inflation pressures elsewhere? Then there’s the question of politics. Will interest rates start to come down – like they have in Poland – because of political pressures. The Morning Call’s Phil Dobbie talks to Katie about the unchartered waters that lie below the smooth surface of central banks’ Table Mountain trajectory. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Europe reaches the peak, or is it a false summit? 14:27
14:27
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:27![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 15th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just as NAB predicted, the ECB has lifted rates again, with a swift response in European bond yields and the value of the Europe. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the announcement, the response and the question of whether there is more to come. The ECB also revised down its growth forecast, and upped its inflation expectations a little. Elsewhere, the US reported strong retail numbers., following on from Australia’s higher than expected employment data yesterday. Is read likely to lead the respective central banks to take a more hawkish line? Lots of data from China today – will any of it knock the wind out of the Aussie dollar, which is on the rise against a rising US dollar this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Higher than expected US CPI fails to move markets 15:55
15:55
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:55![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 14th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Even though US core CPI came in higher than expected, there was little movement in bond and currency markets. NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains how the market can sometimes expect more than expected! Plus, weaker GDP numbers for the UK. Are they entering into a recession? And will softer data in Europe recently mean a pause by the ECB. NAB isn’t expecting it. Plus what the latest NAB spending data tells us about the state of the Aussie economy right now, ahead of labour market data today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Aussie consumer confidence hit but businesses keep prices up 13:48
13:48
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:48![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 13th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The NAB Business Survey yesterday showed that price growth remained elevated and business conditions rose. NAB’s Ray Attrill says an interesting takeout is the contrast between the resilience showing up in business surveys, against consumer confidence. Even though individual consumer spending is slowing, higher levels of immigration means businesses are still seeing growth and in a position, for now, to pass on costs. It’s a different story n the UK, where wages continue to rise, but markets are lowering their expectations for a hike from the Bank of England this month. Listen in to find out why. And the elephant in the room – the price of oil. Expect to see it reflected in the headline US CPI rate today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Aussie dollar boosted on China fix. Japanese yields boosted by potential BoJ switch. 14:53
14:53
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:53![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 12th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB How soon will Japan move from negative interest rates? Maybe sooner than we thought after Gov Ueda’s interview over the weekend. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks about the response in Japanese Bond Yields yesterday and overnight. That, combined with a stronger push in the CNY reference rate by the PBoC, pushed the US dollar lower and helped boost the Aussie dollar, to be one of the strongest currency performers. In Europe the EC lowered its growth forecasts, whilst the words from BoE speakers was sounding more hawkish. Today, the NAB business survey will be keenly watched, along with New Zealand’s Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update which, Ken says, could signal the need for more government borrowing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 11th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The G20, unsurprisingly, didn’t come up with any solid plans about tackling the global economic downturn and inflation concerns. Perhaps it exposed the size of the agenda gap between the west and the BRICs component. China continues to avoid any solid plan of its own, to lift its growth, with the WSJ suggesting President Xi’s tight grip on policy is a big part of the problem. Japan’s currency, meanwhile, continues to weaken, so the USA dollar continues to strengthen. NAB’s Skye Masters talks about how markets are positioned at the start of a week that is quite rich in data, with US CPI, UK GDP and Australian employment, plus the ECB rate decision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 If we only plan to meet our climate targets, we’re missing a trick 23:02
23:02
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt23:02![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 8th September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australia is chasing two climate targets. First, to reduce emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2050, and NetZero by 2050. That’s going to take massive investment in infrastructure and capabilities. But, as Deloitte’s Claire Ibrahim explains, if we only focus on the lowest-cost approach to meeting those targets we are likely to miss out on the upside opportunity. The real question is, how can Australia benefit from the low carbon future? Phil talks to Claire about the NAB sponsored report “All Systems Go: Powering Ahead”, and more generally, how are we positioned to take full advantage of what lies ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US dollar dominance continues as Yuan hits 16 year low 15:30
15:30
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:30![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 8th Septembr 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to hold its strength against weak economic data from Europe and a continuing slide in the Yuan, which has hit a 16-year low. But, JBWere’s Sally Auld says there was a glimmer of hope in China’s trade numbers for August, with signs that export activity is stabilising after significant falls earlier in the year. But we shouldn’t expect any massive upswing anytime soon. Australia’s trade surplus narrowed with a fall in export growth, but a rise in imports, driven in part by people buying cars. Philip Lowe used his farewell speech yesterday to reemphasise his concerns over Australia’s falling productivity. Europe delivered further signs of weakness. Over the weekend China delivers CPI and PPI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 A beige soft landing, but is US service growth too strong? 15:41
15:41
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:41![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 7th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed a bit higher overnight as US Services came in a bit higher than anticipated, along with wage growth. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through how it has been interpreted. The Beige Book is out and has soft landing written all over it, even if it is not explicitly spelt out. In the UK the BoE Governor is hinting that rate hikes are not a full gone conclusion. They didn’t happen in Canada yesterday. There’s also discussion on Australia’s GDP numbers yesterday and the trade numbers to keep across today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 6th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It came as no surprise to anyone when the RBA announced no change to rates yesterday but, as NAB’s Tayor Nugent explains, there were references to further tightening if necessary. NAB still expects there will be one more hike before Christmas. So, can Australia pull off a US-style soft landing? The Aussie dollar fell sharply yesterday, in part because of a weaker than expected Caixin Services PMI. Rising oil prices could present a threat to headline inflation rates, as Saudi Arabia an Russia confirm their production cuts will continue until December. Australia’s GDP read is expected to show modest growth today, and the US Servies ISM will, presumably, continue to support the notion of a soft-landing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 5th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Philip Lowe holds his final RBA meeting today. No press conference either. The expectation is that rates will be kept on hold for now. Bond yields have pushed a little higher, perhaps on the expectation that rates will push higher later in the year, which is NAB’s prediction. Europe saw some more soft data, along with words from ECB’s Christine Lagarde apologising for not always getting forecasts right and saying they needed to be more humble. Part of that humility was giving no indication of what t the ECB will do next. Trading was thin with the US on holiday for Monday, with share and bond markets closed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 4th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The number of American jobs rose in data released Friday. Normally this would be seen as a sign of a tightening labour market, but a sharp rise in those entering the labour force means the unemployment rate has actually increased, whilst wage increases have slowed. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed and Joe Biden couldn’t have hoped for anything better, even if they wrote the numbers themselves. All in all it has reduced the expectations of a Fed rate hike later this month. Locally, there’s little chance of a rate rise in Philip Lowe’s last meeting at the RBA, but NAB still expects at least one more hike before the year is out. So, what data will drive that decision? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Is Monetary Policy Working? Which Central Banks have got it right? 26:56
26:56
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt26:56![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 1st September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . It started out as a transitory problem driven by post-COVID supply constraints. Central banks thought it would pass. Then the mood switched and monetary tightening kicked in. But different central banks started at different times, hiking at different speeds to end up in very different places. But is monetary policy effective in an environment like this? And what about governments choosing to use fiscal stimulus measures, does that help or hinder the quest for lower inflation? Phil Dobbie talks to JBWere’s Chief Investment Officer Sally Auld about the variety of approaches being taken to tackle inflation. Importantly, how does Australia fare? Her views on that are certainly worth a listen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 1st September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Speaking in Cape Town the Bank of England’s Huw Pill has likened their policy approach to Table Mountain, with interest rates remaining flat for some time before falling away quickly. So, does he mean they’ve reached the summit. It seems likely that the ECB is still in the cable car on the way up, with inflation remaining persistent. NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets have priced in only one more rise, which is a bit optimistic he suggests. The Aussie dollar has been helped by positive capex figures locally yesterday, together with more positive signs from China, including an improvement in PMIs. The key number today, of course, is non-farm payrolls for the US. The markets will be very responsive to any surprises. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Soft is good for the US, but European CPI is harder to take 15:54
15:54
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:54![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 31st August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There seems to be lots of good news in data from the US lately if the assumption is that soft data is good right now. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we’ve been seeing a bit of that this week, including a downward revision in US GDP and the latest ADP jobs numbers reaffirming that the tightness in the labour market is continuing to ease. It’s a different story for Europe, where inflation remains persistent. The full Eurozone CPI number is published today, but data from Germany and Spain shows the ECB has more to do. Locally, the RBA is likely to be on hold next week after yesterday’s softer CPI read, but don’t assume inflation has gone away or that the RBA won’t hike again. As we explain in today’s episode. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 A quick JOLT to the equity and bond markets 15:23
15:23
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:23![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 30th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Job openings declined more than expected in the latest data from the US. That’s seen bond yields drive lower as investors hope this slight weakening in the labour market will see off any further hikes by the FOMC. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’ll have to be confirmed with the non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday night. The ADP employment numbers later today have been a notoriously unreliable indicator lately, but markets are still likely to respond if the number falls outside expectations. Locally, Australia’s CPI data is out today, ahead of the RBA next week. Taylor talks through what to look out for in today’s numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 29th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian retail numbers were a little higher than expected last month, but NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Matildas Effect will be partially responsible for that. Generally, though, the trend is weaker, particularly given the rising population base, so there’s no reason to expect the RBA to see it as a sign of stubborn resilience in consumption. There’s some discussion on the podcast about how signs are showing the opposite, here and in the US. China has announced measures to encourage extra investment, but markets lost their initial enthusiasm fairly quickly. New Zelaand meanwhile, has had its report card from the IMF and has announced plans to cut government spending but, as Ray suggests, not in any meaningful way. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 28th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB If markets were hanging out for some unique wisdom from any central banks at Jackson Hole they would have been disappointed. All it did was dismiss any hopes of a more dovish take from Jerome Powell and his compatriots. NAB’s Skye Masters says the focus on Wyoming, meant less attention was given to the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations survey, which has been heading higher for the last two months. “That stickiness is inflation is a little bit concerning”, she says. With Jackson Hole behind us, the focus is now on a week rich in important data, including Australian retail sales (today) and CPI (Wednesday), and US payrolls numbers on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Fixing Australia’s productivity problem 19:47
19:47
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt19:47![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 25th August 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australia’s falling productivity is in focus as we emerge from the pandemic. The Productivity Commission has provided recommendations for helping resolve the issue, and earlier in the week the Business Council released its ‘Seize the Moment’ report about how the government and private sector can grow the economy. But how much of the fall in productivity is simply the transitional impact from a rise in the services sector. It’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to Melissa Wilson, Senior Economist (NSW) at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA). They discuss how productivity gains can come from businesses across all sectors, and a part of it comes from a more adaptable approach, highlighted in CEDA’s recent Dynamic Capabilities report. So, whilst an industrial strategy for Australia would be useful, a lot of work can come from businesses taking a look at the way they operate. On that point, Melissa provides some useful insights on ‘The Weekend Edition’. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 25th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets lost confidence all of a sudden despite the standout earnings result and forecast from NVIDIA after the close yesterday. It did seem strange that there was such a focus on AI. Today shares are well down and NVIDIA has wiped out all of its gains. NAB’s David de Garis says there’s concerns that Jerome Powell will pull another rabbit out of his hat at Jackson Hole. There is a track record for markets being driven by central-bank speak at the Wyoming get together. Otherwise, there’s no clear reason for such an about turn. Jobs data held up in the US, durable goods orders were down, but largely accounted for by aircraft orders, and the Chicago Fed activity index was up. None can account for such an about turn. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 24th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed lower on the back of weaker than expected PMI umbers, particularly in the UK and Europe. The drop was less pronounced in the US but yields still pushed lower on the back of the European slowdown. Equities rose sharply, presumably on the prospect of less in the way of hikes from central banks. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says that’s unlikely in the case of the Bank of England, given inflation and wage pressures are still strong. Does this mean they will have to force the country into recession? The Aussie dollar has benefited from the yield and currency moves today, but it doesn’t change the outlook. And shares will be buoyed further by a stronger than expected result from NVIDIA, beating analysts’ forecasts for Q3. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US re-acceleration possible but Aussie dollar weakness expected to continue. 17:53
17:53
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:53![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 23rd August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed’s Thomas Barkin has warned that strong consumer data from the US lately could mean a reacceleration in inflation is possible although, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, he also suggested that if inflation does come down then America is likely to see a soft landing. Inflation could rise in Europe for a different reason, if we see a reemergence in rising gas prices. If the temporary peak we are seeing now becomes sustained. A rapid recovery in China looks less likely by the day, but they at least have a plan, for a tech driven future where, supposedly, most of the existing growth is coming from. Still, that’ll take time – part of the reason NAB has revised it’s forecasts for the Aussie dollar. We talk through the revisions on today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Treasury yields push to new post GFC highs 13:06
13:06
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:06![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 22nd August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US Treasury Yields have hit new post GFC highs, but NAB’s Skye Masters says its hardly a surprise given where Fed funds rates currently are. She reminds us how last year 10-year Treasuries were trying to break 3%, hitting equity markets. Now yields are breaking above 4% and equities are rising. Does that support the soft-landing narrative, which is the expected outcome now by most US economists. Meanwhile, it seems we have to reassess expectations for the level of fiscal and monetary support for China. The PBoC eased the one year prime loan rate, but only by 10 basis points. That’s not going to move mountains, but it also didn’t have a profound impact on the broader market either. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Heading to Jackson Hole through a sea of uncertainty 18:15
18:15
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:15![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 21st August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Central bankers descend on Jackson Hole at the end of the week for their annual symposium. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether we actually have a clear idea of the tack Jerome Powell will take when he talks on Friday. In the past Fed governors have been a little less guarded at this event and there are mixed signals about how much further rates need to rise, if it all, and how long before they start to come down. Meanwhile, the week kicks off with question marks over how China addresses struggling debt and a slowing economy, whilst Japan was confronted with higher-than-expected inflation numbers at the end of last week. How will the Aussie dollar cope with this sea of uncertainty? And, by the way, The Morning Call is seven years old today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Bonds, back and not so boring 20:08
20:08
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt20:08![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Bond markets have been on a tumultuous rollercoaster ride. We saw a heavy sell off of last year as inflation picked up alongside rising interest rates. Now, they’re back, as a buying opportunity. So, are fund managers can seeing them as a growth asset rather than the customary defensive play? Phil puts that question to Katie Dean, head of FICC at Australian Super, Australia’s largest super fund. Katie also gives her views on how the macro picture is influencing purchase decisions. For example, she’s not a big advocate of the US soft landing scenario. Listen in for some useful insights and discussion points. Bonds are not boring, and neither is Katie! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 18th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's becoming a familiar pattern lately, with bond yields pushing higher and equities taking a clobbering. The Aussie also continues to suffer as noises come from China about tackling their economic slowdown, but very little still in the way of sold action. Australia’s rise in unemployment yesterday might ease the pressure on the RBA to lift rates, but NAB’s David de Garis says, only for a month. It seems no country can now assume they have finished their tightening cycle. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 17th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The tide seems to be turning as investors and policy makes toy up the risk of inflation starting to climb again. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there was a strong suggestion of it in the FOMC minutes, released this morning, although that wascounteracted by two Fed members calling for rates to be held steady. There was clear evidence of the need for more tightening in the UK, where the headline CPI level fell, but core inflation remained resilient, and services inflation ticked higher. So, what’s the risk on the home front? Today’s Australian employment numbers will be a crucial element of the RBA decision making. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 16th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a busy day for data releases, having a profound impact on markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through what’s happened, not least of which is the continued signs of slowdowns in the Chinese economy. Japan too has shown a fall in consumption, even though GDP rose (it was all through exports). The Bank of Canada might not be done with rate hikes with a CPI surprise, and the Bank of England has to contend with higher-than-expected wages growth. Even the US is starting to question hopes of a soft landing. It’s been a session rich in data that’s raised more questions than its answered. It was a day light on good news. Maybe the Matildas can put that right. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Slow moves, thin trade ahead of data splurge 15:21
15:21
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:21![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 15th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a quiet session, but bond yields have continued to push higher and the US dollar has climbed with them. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are continuing to adjust to an outlook where the US economy is growing faster than expected, and how that could push out the path of easing from the Fed. Whilst trading has been thin on very little data, get ready for a deluge today. On the home front, Australian wages data, along with Chinese activity data, Japan’s GDP, UK employment, Canada’s CPI and US retail sales. When it rains it pours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 14th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets responded positively to softer than expected US CPI last week, but the dial was turned back quite a bit on Friday when producer prices showed an unexpected increase, particularly in the services sector. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s still an open question about how much wage growth and nominal demand are in keeping with the expected fall in inflation. Bond yields rose markedly in the UK as GDP came in higher than expected, suggesting the BoE will want to do more to slow demand there. A quiet session lies ahead, but we take you through the data to look out for this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Australian shares – destination unknown? 17:52
17:52
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:52![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 11th August 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Please click here to view our NAB Financial Services Guide. We are in the midst of the Australian reporting season, so what does it hold for Australian businesses and the share market? Gemma Dale is director, self-managed super funds and investor behaviour at NAB Trade. She joins Phil on this weekend’s podcast. They talk about how global events are playing on local shares, the role of tech in Australia, the impact inflation on growth businesses and finding the high “moat” businesses. If you are struggling to value businesses in these uncertain times, this weekend’s podcast is worth 15minutes of your time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Inflation eases, Fed hold expected, but bond yields rise 15:15
15:15
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:15![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday August 11th 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation has eased, by almost any measure you care to use, and jobless claims are heading the direction the Fed would like to see as well. All that is pointing to heightened expectations that they will hold at their next meeting. Yet bond yields are higher today. Why is that? NAB’s Ken Crompton says yields started rising after a weak 30-year Treasury auction a few hours after the CPI release, which shows there are some nerves about absorbing long duration government debt. There’s also discussion about further weakening of the Yen, UK’s GDP today and further economic indicators for the US later on today/tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 China deflates, gas spikes, US CPI later 15:52
15:52
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:52![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 10th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As expected, latest CPI data from China shows a country suffering the impact of deflation. It raises many questions including, could lower prices help calm inflation elsewhere. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril gives some perspectives today. Plus, oil and gas prices rise, for different reasons. We examine that. Latest spending data shows Australians continue to spend more, whereas New Zealanders have put a cap on their spending. Does that reinforce the expectations for the respective central banks and what is that doing to the spread of trans-Tasman bond yields? The key metric today, everyone is hanging out for, is the US CPI, out late tonight Australia time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Chinas slowdown, foreign bank worries, more Aussie resilience 13:54
13:54
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:54![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 9th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a bad session for banks in the US and Italy. NAB’s Tayor Nugent says there are three things that have sucked the optimism out of markets in the last 24 hours, two relate to banks. Moody’s has downgraded the credit rating for some mid-sized banks in the US, whilst Italy has introduced a 40% windfall tax on its banks. The third hit to sentiment came form China’s trade numbers, which showed a substantial fall in exports and imports. Locally, the NAB Business Survey showed a resilient economy with rising wages, which could challenge the notion that the RBA can hold for longer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Hope rises during the inflation waiting game. 14:10
14:10
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:10![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 8th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Stocks are bouncing back in the US after a bad week last week. What’s the reason for this positive speculation? Hopes of a weakening of inflation in the US CPI and PPI numbers later in the week perhaps. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the moves in bond markets, also influenced by inflation speculation, mixed with some hawkish central bank speak and a fair amount of bond issuance this week. NAB’s monthly Business Survey is out today. Skye tells you what she’ll be looking out for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 7th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Last week we did suggest there would be a response to Friday’s US payrolls numbers come what may, and that was certainly the case. Softer numbers and downward revisions saw bond yields retrace their steps on last week’s gains, as investors bet on less in the way of rate hikes. And yet, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, wages growth remains sticky and that will be a concern to the Fed. Canada also saw softer employment data pushing the Canadian dollar down on Friday. The Aussie climbed, but still saw a hefty fall last week. We look at why. Meanwhile a slow start to today – time then to go back and listen to our weekend edition, if you haven’t already. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weekend Edition: Australia’s Property Recovery Slows 16:50
16:50
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:50![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 4th August 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Figures this week from Core Logic show that house prices in Australia continue to rise – five straight months now – but the speed is slowing. Bounce backs invariably have gone further than the prior downturn, but maybe that won’t happen this time. We’re well above pre-pandemic levels, but are we reaching a ceiling? Phil Dobbie puts that question to Eliza Owen Core Logic’s Head of Residential Research for Australia. In particular, can we expect a slower recovery in the investment market, as those searching for yield look elsewhere, where risk may be lower? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Bond sell-off continues, BoE tightens, jobs numbers tonight 18:42
18:42
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:42![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 4th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed higher in this session, with equities left going nowhere, at least until after hours trading with a couple of significant earnings results – Apple and Amazon. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the bond sell-off is a conflation of several factors, including this week’s BoJ moves on YCC, the increased net borrowing from the US government and continued resilience is the US economy. There’s also the uncertainty around what to expect from the non-farm payrolls numbers tonight. If they echo the ADP numbers it’ll be an unpleasant surprise for the Fed. But there are further soft-landing signs for the US in data out overnight, including falling labour costs and rising productivity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Fitch Ignored, ADP questioned, Treasuries peak, BoE could go 50 17:05
17:05
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:05![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 3rd August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US ten-year Treasuries hit a fresh high for the year. The downgrading of the US credit rating by Fitch had a little to do with it. The ADP employment numbers also drove yields higher, but NAB’s David de Garis says it is likely the numbers ere a big overstatement, hence yields reversed a little. But there’s also the increase in bond issuances after the massively recalculated US government borrowing this week. All of this is making bonds more attractive than risk assets, with shares well down again. Looking forward, the Bank of England meets today, with the outside chance they’ll lift rates as much as 50 basis points. And the US Services ISM read will be important for those hoping for a no-lading future for the US economy. Plus, why is the Aussie dollar down again so much today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 The Trifecta Pulling the Aussie Dollar Lower 17:23
17:23
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:23![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 2nd August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Aussie dollar has been pulled down by three factors. First, the RBA decision to hold. Although most expected it, there was some pricing for a rise that didn’t materialise. Secondly, the US dollar is higher, on further hopes of a soft landing. US bond yields are also higher because higher than planned government borrowing will see a lot more being issued. Thirdly, China. The Caixin Manufacturing PMIs were soft, and there’s still no clear sign of an effective strategy for mitigating the country’s downturn. Cricket was not one of the reasons. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Storm in a Japanese Tea Cup. Next stop, RBA. 15:36
15:36
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:36![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 1st August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Yen is back where it was a week ago, despite all the excitement towards the end of last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it's clear the BoJ didn’t want yields to rise too quickly and intervened to stop a sudden rise to 1%. Bond markets are suddenly less excited, so yields moved little in other parts of the world. The Aussie dollar rose over one percent overnight, along with Chinese equities, as more detail was fleshed out about what would be done to boost consumption in China, although there’s no evidence of any solid fiscal support yet. The RBA is the main focus today, with NAB expecting they will keep rates on hold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Why markets responded to BoJ’s easing control 15:13
15:13
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:13![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 31st July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bonds markets led moves in currency markets on Thursday on news of changes to Japan’s yield curve control. A lot of those changes were retraced on Friday, o the back of softer inflation numbers for Europe and the US. So, what exactly happened? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through how a decision over Japanese bond yields impacted yields on bonds in many other markets, including Australia. And , even though moves were retraced somewhat on Friday on inflation data, will there be a longer lasting impact on bond yields elsewhere as a result of the BoJ policy decision? Listen in for a crash course on yield curve controls. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Whirlwind tour for markets as US GDP surprises 14:38
14:38
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:38![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 28th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Currency markets were particularly choppy overnight. NAB’s David de Garis says the moves were driven by the stronger than expected GDP read from the USD, which saw the US dollar much higher, pushing other major currencies – except the Yen – much lower. There was less of a response to the ECB, because there were no surprises. Rates were lifted by 25 basis points and Christine Lagarde spoke again about data dependency. Hard to get excited about that. But equities have taken a solid hit in the US. We can expect more volatility as inflation and GDP data is released for Europe today and early next week, plus rebalancing for the end of Q2. As Dave puts it on today’s podcast, expect things to be whippy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 27th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC lifted interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the ECB is expected to do the same tonight. But in each case, it’s unclear where the central banks go next. But NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA is unlikely to lift rates next week, given the softer than expected Australian CPI print yesterday. But again, it’s unclear where they go from there. There were no strong market moves during or after Jerome Powell’s Fed press conference this morning. He clearly didn’t want to appear too dovish or too hawkish, just data dependent. He did reiterate his personal belief that the US will navigate a soft landing. Listen in for more on what was said. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 A shot in the arm for China boosts the Aussie and commodities 15:56
15:56
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:56![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 26th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a more substantial build in the Aussie rally yesterday, says NAB’s Ray Attrill which built further overnight. The reason, China, with the Politburo making announcements that suggest they are serious about stepping up macro policy support after the weak Q2 GDP numbers. That’s helped the Aussie and commodities. Meanwhile, the US is languishing in more evidence of a soft-landing, whilst Germany and most of Europe face a tough future. WE don’t have to wait long to see just how that will be reflected in central bank policies, starting with the FOMC first thing tomorrow. Strong earnings results for Alphabet and Microsoft too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 25th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are still expecting that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle, with equity markets continuing to push higher today. But what if the Fed sounds particularly hawkish this week? And what if the plethora of big tech earnings results come in much weaker than expected? It could be a choppy second half to the week. PMIs for Europe came in weaker than expected, and NAB’s Skye Masters says that opens up the question about what the ECB does after this week’s meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 24th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC, the ECB and Bank of Japan all meet this week. No change of direction is expected from the Bank of Japan despite their sticky core CPI number last week. The FOMC and ECB are both expected to lift rates, but does it end there? That’s a question put to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, on a day when we will be festooned with data – the flash PMIs are out for the US, Japan, UK, Euro area, France and Japan. Will they factor into central bank decision making? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 21st July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are back to worrying about jobs data, it seems. Aussie yields rose after yesterday’s much stronger than expected employment numbers. The Aussie dollar is higher, even against a rising US dollar, which is also in part down to job concerns after a fall in unemployment claims last week. NAB’s David de Garis says we shouldn’t get too carried away by one week’s report on jobless claims, which are known for their volatility. UK retail numbers are expected to fall again today, but it’s an economy that keeps surprising us. And Japan’s CPI are out, but are unlikely to change the direction of the BoJ anytime soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 20th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were buoyed a little further on the back of UK CPI numbers. Seemingly, if the UK can see core inflation fall a little further than expected then there’s hope for everyone. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, although the fall wasn’t dramatic, it adds to the global view that inflation has peaked and it could fall rapidly from here. New Zealand’s CPI also fell, but Europe’s final CPI read was revised up a little. The RBA will be watching Australia’s employment numbers today, but Tapas warns that the numbers have been subject to some volatility lately so it should be treated with caution. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Cooling inflation hope, but does it include NZ and UK? 16:41
16:41
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:41![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 19th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are still excited about the prospect of inflation cooling, with equities pushing higher in the US. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the fall in the headline inflation rate in Canada was also encouraging, but there was a marginal move down in core inflation. There are more inflation numbers today, with CPI for New Zealand and the UK. The UK will be a focus, with its core rate expected to remain stubbornly high. If it does come in lower than expected that will only fuel hopes that we are fighting the final battles for inflation. But a higher reader could see the BoE pull a 50bp hike out of their hat. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 China slows more, could the RBA minutes give the Aussie another hit? 17:58
17:58
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:58![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 18th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was further evidence of a slowdown in the Chinese economy in yesterday’s GDP print. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it reinforces the need for targeted fiscal measures to keep the economy on track for the target 5% annual growth. The Aussie moved down lower on the news and could take a further hit if the RBA minutes suggest a delay before they hike again. There was a sprinkling of US data that reinforced the soft-landing scenario, supported by words from Janet Yellen suggesting a recession won’t happen given the strong labour market, with more people returning to work. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 17th JUly 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB After all the confidence displayed last week following the lower-than-expected US inflation numbers, markets changing direction on Friday, with the US dollar rising, bond yields also increasing and equities losing some of their vigour. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says in part this is a response to Friday’s consumer inflation expectations survey, mixed with a bit of natural adjustment after so much mid-week exuberance. If the UK’s CPI number this week also comes in lower than expected then we can expect hopes to be raise higher, but that is much less likely to happy. Instead, lets focus on Aussie employment numbers and China’s GDP read, both of which will influence local sentiment and the direction of the AUD, which clearly wants to avoid hitting 70 US cents just yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 14th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s been no backtracking (so far) on the positive response to the US CPI numbers on Wednesday. US equities rose higher on Thursday, bond yields fell further and so did the US dollar. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks us through the market moves, including the rise in the Aussie dollar, despite weaker than expected trade data from China. The UK also had some positive news, with GDP managing to avoid going into the red, just. A quiet end to the week, with Euro area trade data the only notable figures, along with the Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US inflation cools more than we dared hope 16:14
16:14
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:14![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 13th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was quite a response to the cooling in US inflation last night, pushing US equities to 15-month highs and sending bond yields lower. NAB’s Tapas Strickland delves into the CPI numbers and the market reaction, and what it means for future expectations from the Fed. There’s also discussion about Philip Lowe’s speech yesterday, giving the RBA’s response to suggested reforms for Australia’s central bank. Plus, decisions from the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada. Today’s data highlights include China’s trade balance and the US jobless claims. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 12th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Some parts of the world are showing clear signs of an economic slowdown. Like, Europe, where the latest ZEW survey shows a deteriorating outlook. In the UK unemployment rose more than expected yesterday, but so did wages. And, as Ken Crompton explains, yesterday’s NAB Business Survey show’s there’s still resilience in the Australian economy, something that RBA Governor Philip Lowe will no doubt talk about in his lunchtime address today. But all eyes will be on the latest CPI numbers for the US tonight, along with rate decisions by the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 11th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The speed of China’s economic recovery continues to cause concerns. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the fall in the CNY continues to pull the Aussie dollar lower, even against a weaker US dollar today. US Treasuries have fallen, despite more hawkish talk from Fed speakers overnight, including Loretta Mester saying rates need to be ‘somewhat higher’. Does that sound like more than two hikes? Today the focus will be on the NAB Business Survey locally, and employment data for the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US jobs relief, inflation data this week 14:08
14:08
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:08![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 10th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets will have breathed a collective sigh of relief on Friday when the US non-farm payrolls read came in below consensus, after the worrying upside surprise in the earlier ADP employment numbers. NAB’s Skye Masters says it doesn’t change the path for the Fed, though, particularly as the unemployment rate fell in Friday’s numbers. Elsewhere, Janet Yellen continued to sound hawkish, saying the need was to focus on company profits alongside rising wages. US CPI is the key data release this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 7th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Clearly markets are very concerned about jobs data being too-strong after a big rise in the latest ADP numbers and in the employment component of the latest services ISM survey. The JOLTs numbers also showed an increase in job openings. All running contrary to the expectations of the Fed. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it adds to the overarching theme of resilience in the US economy – a word frequently mentioned in the last Fed minutes. The result has been a sharp rise in bond yields today, drops in equities and a significant fall in the Aussie dollar on the back of the rising risk sentiment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 6th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's been a quiet week so far, but that changes today with US Services ISM out later, along with the start of US jobs numbers, including the weekly jobless claims, the JOLTs job openings and the ADP employment release, ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls. Trepidation ahead of those releases might partially account for the sharp increase in 10 year Treasury yields, but NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s also linked to forecasts from JP Morgan that UK rates will push as high as seven percent. 10-year Gilt yields also moved up accordingly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 5th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA decided to keep rates on hold yesterday, but there are still expectations of two more hikes even though the commentary from the central bank was more about slowdown concerns that the prospect of inflation worsening or taking longer to come down. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says this should be taken as a sign that they want to move more slowly, rather than this being the endgame. It’s a clearer picture in NZ though, where a much softer Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion has been taken as another indicator that the RBNZ’s job is done. Today, as America returns to work, we get the FOMC minutes and the Caixin services PMI for China. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 4th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA meets today. Thank goodness, otherwise it would be a desperately quiet day ahead, with the US on holiday with markets having closed early afternoon on Monday. Data on both sides of the Atlantic pointed to a manufacturing slowdown. The US ISM came in lower than expected and Germany’s PMI was revised down, to a level close to the pandemic low, when workers were in lockdown. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says we knew the US manufacturing sector was experiencing a slowdown and the German number can be attributed to lower demand from China. But what of the RBA? Today’s meeting comes a day after surprisingly strong housing data yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 3rd July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Consumption data and the core-PCE inflation read both came in softer than expected on Friday, after a spate of stronger than expected economic data for the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s not enough in these numbers for the Fed to change its current hawkish path, and markets moved only marginally lower in their expectations of the terminal rate, but what if it is compounded by weaker jobs data and falling wage growth on Friday? It’s all discussed in today’s podcast, plus Europe’s inflation remains sticky and a new head on the way for the PBoC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 30th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The resilience in the US economy is not giving in. Q1 GDP was revised up, showing 2 percent growth QonQ, whilst consumer spending was up 4.2% on the quarter. NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, Q1 was a while ago now, and everyone knew it was a strong quarter. Yet a fall in jobless claims added to the idea that the Fed has more work cut out to bring down inflation, hence a strong move up in bond yields. Australia too is showing resilience, reinforced by yesterday’s retail numbers. And there was no respite in German inflation, with all eyes on the Euro area CPI number out today, along with the US core-PCE. Both could add to central bank woes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 The fall in the Aussie and the rise of the Hawks 16:45
16:45
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:45![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 29th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big fall in the Aussie and Kiwi dollars yesterday and overnight. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the fall in the Aussie was a combination of the falling CNY and the fall in Australian CPI yesterday, although he cautions into getting too hopeful on the inflation read. At Sintra central bankers stuck with their hawkish sentiment, except Gov Ueda from the BoJ who believed inflation would come down. Concern over Japan’s plight might account for some of the fall in the NZ dollar, although some of it is also being put down in money moving across the Tasman to buy Taylor Swift tickets! CPI for parts of Europe are released today and the Riksbank is the next to lift rates – maybe by as much as 50bps. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 28th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was strong data from the US overnight, with a lift in durable goods orders, housing sales rising and consumer confidence also strong. NAB’s Skye Masters says the Fed won’t take any delight in these numbers so late in their tightening cycle. Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde gave a hawkish speech at Sintra. But maybe the Bank of Canada can take a rest, with core inflation a little lower than expected. Today Australia’s monthly CPI report is out, and the clash of the central bankers on a panel at the close of the Sintra symposium. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 27th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We saw no response on the markets to the attempted Russian rebellion, instead all eyes are on Sintra in Portugal, where some of the world’s leading central bankers meet for a chinwag. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we are bound to get something out of it, particularly with Governor Ueda present from the Bank of Japan. Otherwise, a quiet session, although Canada’s inflation number will be important in determining the path for the BoC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 26th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields fell on Friday as PMI reads came in softer than expected. As well as further falls in manufacturing, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, the outperformance of services has weakened, particularly in Europe where the Services PMI in France fell into contraction territory. Does this mean central banks will be less hawkish? The Fed’s Bostic said at the weekend that perhaps the FOMC has had its last rise and all that’s needed now is time for the impact of their policies to kick in. It’s a busy week for inflation numbers, including the monthly Australian figure, ahead of the RBA next week. And the shortest civil war ever. Could it pass by with no market impact whatsoever? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 23rd June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of England and the Norges Bank both surprised markets, each raising interest rates by 50 basis points. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the mix of higher UK earnings and stubborn inflation numbers yesterday combined to drive this bigger than expected move. The question is, how much further will they go as the UK fights supply chain and labour supply issues and second-round effects? Certainly Jerome Powell is painting a less volatile path for the US economy, where further rate rises will come slowly, if at all. Yet yields are climbing higher again with all this central bank uncertainty, and oil prices have fallen sharply on an expected decline in demand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 22nd June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB At his testimony to the House Finance Committee overnight Jerome Powell suggested two more rate hikes would be a “pretty good guess”. But, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, markets haven’t even fully priced in one more hike for the remainder of this year, so they clearly don’t believe him. It’s a safer bet that the Bank of England will raise twice, or maybe one big hit today, as they prepare to counter yesterday’s inflation numbers that showed the downward movement in the headline rate has stalled, and the core rate continues to push higher. Not a happy place. And they lost at the cricket. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Aussie dips, UK braces itself, Powell ready for a grilling 17:44
17:44
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:44![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 21st June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar has dipped to 67.8 us cents this morning. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says its in part because of the China slowdown story, but also the RBA minutes which were more dovish than expected? Does this mean a pause is more likely, or will recent data suggest otherwise? The RBA’s Michelle Bullock gave a speech yesterday indicating the importance of seeing unemployment getting back up to a non-inflationary level, suggesting more emphasis will be placed on jobs data. The UK gets its latest CPI data today ahead of the BoE tomorrow. An upside surprise could mean a 50bp rise by the UK’s central bank. And Jerome POweell spends a day in front of the US House Financial Services Panel later on. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 20th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are a couple of days out from the next Bank of England meeting, where a rate hike of at least 25bp is expected, with more to come – but could it be 50? So, is there a danger of doing too much? Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters whether the aggressive signalling from central banks is intended to modify behaviour without expecting to go quite as far as they are suggesting? The mood overnight was subdued, wit the US on holiday, but impacted a little by more cautious expectations for the Chinese recovery. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 19th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With the US on holiday, very little new data and not much out on Friday, today should be a very quiet day. But, as NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests, that doesn’t mean there won ‘t be fireworks later. Jerome Powell fronts up to two days of testimony, and the Bank of England will lift rates shortly after receiving the latest CPI print. Given a weakening US dollar could we see further strength in the Aussie, plus a brief discussion about an AFR article this morning suggesting the RBA might be preparing for QT. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 16th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB hit expectations with their rate rise overnight, says NAB’s Ken Crompton. Markets have responded to Christine Lagarde’s clear expectation that there will be another rise at the next meeting. So, we have a slowing economy (technically in recession) with a central bank lifting rates. In the US, where the Fed has also signalled one or two more rises, we saw weaker data overnight, raising the question, will they actually have to go that far? Whilst in Australia the tight labour market – made tighter with higher job numbers yesterday – adds to the challenge for the RBA. And in China, the slowdown is set to promote more fiscal and monetary stimulus. Could that help push the Aussie dollar back into the seventies? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 15th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Few will have been surprised by the decision of the FOMC to pause interest rates, after 10 successive hikes. But they have also signalled that rates could rise as much as 50 basis points, with one member wanting to see rates go over 6 percent. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks to Phil about the decision and take-outs from the press conference that followed. One thing is clear, although the pause was a unanimous decision the dot plots show the board members have wildly different expectations of where to go from here. The ECB is not ready to pause yet. And the next move by the RBA will be to some extent impacted by today’s employment numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Inflation in US under control, UK has problems 17:41
17:41
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt17:41![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 14th JUne 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The CPI numbers from the US yesterday showed core inflation is roughly in-line with expectations, raising hopes that the FOMC will pause rates at their meeting on Thursday. Shares are higher in anticipation. It’s a different story in the UK tough, where a tight labour market continues to cause problems. Yesterday’s employment data saw unemployment fall, whilst wages increased further. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says two-year yields in the UK shot above the level reached during the brief Liz Truss premiership, when the BoE had to step in to protect pension funds. Somewhere in between, sits Australia, where yesterday’s NAB Business Survey with clear signs of a slowing economy. But, of course, that’s good for controlling inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 To pause, raise or skip – the Fed’s dilemma 16:20
16:20
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:20![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 13th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a busy week ahead, with the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan all meeting, and not a clear picture of what any will do in terms of rate rises. The Fed’s decision might be partially impacted by US CPI numbers out today. NAB’s David de Garis says there is talk of a skip, rather than a pause. In other words, one meeting missed so economic indicators can play catch-up before the Fed returns on its upwards rate path. Meanwhile, there seems to be an increasing amount of softer data, suggesting slowdowns are starting to occur. It’ll be interesting to see if UK jobs numbers fall back because, despite concerns about UK growth, employment numbers have been holding up. Is tis the day they turn? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Jobless claims help cool things a little 18:11
18:11
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:11![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 9th JUne 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar has fallen a fair bit, with bond yields down and equities boosted, following a higher than expected jobless claims number in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the markets are reversing some of the early responses to the double shock of rate rises by the RBA and the Bank of Canada. Clearly, the job claims number was used as an excuse to show an economy slowing. But is it an over-reaction? It is if other markets show an equal degree of economic slowdown, which arguably, Europe has done by recording a technical recession in the latest GDP revision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 8th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Hot on the heels of the RBA, the Bank of Canada also lifted interest rates yesterday against market expectations. JB Were’s Sally Auld says markets are having to adjust to the new reality, that central banks aren’t done yet. That’s certainly been reflected in bond yields, rising sharply in the US, Canada and Europe. Philip Lowe yesterday did nothing to talk down the likelihood of another rise, pointing to rising wages against falling productivity as a problem that has to be overcome. China’s trade data has shown a big fall in exports, which has seen the CNY down against the US dollar, which Sally says challenges any potential rise in the Aussie. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 7th JUne 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA lifted interest rates yesterday, against the prevalent market expectation. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it was always a question of “when and not if”, but now there are expectations of at least one follow-up hike at some point this year. The reason, obviously is the central bank’s concerns over persistently high inflation, which OECD numbers yesterday showed was a persistent theme across the developed world. So, the questions ofr today – what will Philip Lowe say at his speech (with Q&A session) in Sydney this morning, and what will the Bank of Canada do later. Their decision is also finely balanced. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 6th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's a line-ball call, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, as to whether the RBA will lift rates or not today. Markets have priced in a follow-up to the May rise, the question is whether it happens today or in a subsequent meeting. We look at the scenarios on today’s podcast. Plus, a weaker services sector in the US. Does that change expectations for the Fed? And oil responds to the OPEC+ cuts by Saudi Arabia, but the gains don’t last long. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 5th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With debt ceiling concerns taken away, its back to worrying about inflation and wondering how far central banks will push. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s still likely thew RBA will pause tomorrow, but a higher-than-expected rise in award wages in Australia on Friday have increased the chance that there will be a hike as soon as tomorrow. The Bank of Canada faces the same dilemma, hike again or hold and see? Oil is expected to rise today after the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend, when Saudi Arabia volunteered a million barrels a day cut in production. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Aussie bounce as debt bills sails through 16:33
16:33
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:33![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 2nd June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's surprising that the markets have reacted so sharply to the passage of the debt ceiling bill. NAB’s David de Garis says there was always an outside chance something would go awry, but it’s already passed through the House and should clear the Senate today. Now the focus is on jobs in the US, with non-farm payrolls tonight. Wage pressure will be a significant focus, whilst at home the consequences of the Fair Work Commission’s award wage decision will be an important factor in determining the rate of inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Aussie low on China worries, European inflation eases 16:34
16:34
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:34![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 1st June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar has fallen further on the back of weaker than expected PMI data from China. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it adds to the view that the post-COID recovery is losing momentum. Australia was also hit with higher-than-expected inflation numbers yesterday, which has added to the expectations for a quarter percent rate rise by the RBA next week. European inflation reported so far has largely shown the worst might be over, but we get the Euro areas CPI figure today. If the US Fed is looking for an easing labour market there is little sign of it today, with job openings up and the Beige book reporting companies continuing to find it difficult to recruit people. There is plenty more US jobs data to come this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Lowe in the hotseat, McCarthy fights his corner 16:27
16:27
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:27![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 31st May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Once it’s over the hurdle of the US House Rules Committee, which is happening right now. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the feeling is that will pass easily and sets the scene for the vote in the House tomorrow. But many of the market moves are more to do with concerns of an economic downturn, as central banks push harder. That will certainly be the tone of questions RBA Governor Philip Lowe faces when he is in front of the Senate Economics Committee this morning. We also get Australian inflation data today, and numbers for France, Germany and Italy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 30th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The timetable to sign off the agreement to raise the US debt ceiling is very tight. Does it matter if it’s a day or two late? "Not really", says NAB’s Tapas Strickland in today’s podcast, although it might make the markets nervous for a while. A bigger question is what happens beyond that, as the administration plays catch-up on the issuance of Treasury Bills. Also today, we look at the impact of the Fair Work Commission’s decision on minimum and award wages. At what point does the increase become problematic for the RBA? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 29th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Democrats and Republicans reckon they have struck a deal over the US debt ceiling, which involves no growth in non-military government spending next year. The deal, could be voted on as soon as Wednesday, just in the nick of time, although as NAB’s Taylor Nugent pints out, Janet Yellen has revised the date for when the money runs out to June 6th. It’s not a done deal, of course, but we started to see early optimism reflected in markets in Friday and there’s no reason why that wouldn’t continue today, except the US and UK markets are largely closed for public holidays. Friday also showed resilience in US inflation and consumption, which has added to the likelihood of a Fed rate rise next month. Non-farm payrolls on Friday will be a key release for that too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 26th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There is still no resolution on the US debt ceiling. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about where markets go from here. Right now, it doesn’t seem to be worrying US equity markets, which have jumped on the forecasts from NVIDIA of am AI-led recovery in chip demands, pushing the company close to a one-billion-dollar valuation. Economc data overnight has shown an upside in the US, but a deterioration in Europe, with Germany having been in a recession for the last two quarters. Still, central banks are talking up the need to do more. Today Australian and UK retail numbers and more measures of inflation, the US PCE deflator and the Tokyo CPI print, which could be an uncomfortable read for the Bank of Japan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 25th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB McCarthy and Biden finished their four hour talks on Wednesday with no resolution on the debt ceiling. Their division over spending continues to concern markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill looks at the market response, with a deal needed by the end of the week to allow time for the legislative process to run its course. There’s division within the FOMC too, evidenced by the latest minutes. There;’s also been a couple of surprises in the last 24 hours – the RBNZ indication that they may have stopped lifted rates, and the UK’s worrying inflation numbers now raising the possibility of a 50bp rate hike next time by the Bank of England. And rate hikes from the RBA might still have a way to go after Philip Lowe’s meeting with legislators. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 24th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s still no resolution on the USD Debt Ceiling. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says expectations are that a deal will be found in time, but markets are getting nervous, with falls in equities across the board (except energy). Inflation concerns continue to mount up, with the latest PMI data in the US and Europe showing that, in general, the service sector continues to expand whilst manufacturing falls further. The UK’s headline inflation rate will fall markedly, but it’s the core number that counts. And we see what the RBNZ is planning to attack persistent inflation – a 25bp is expected but there is an outside chance they will go harder today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 23rd May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB If you look at Kevin McCarthy’s twitter feed you’d assume he is taking a very defiant stand against the Biden administration when it comes to movement on the US debt ceiling. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says that reflects the stakeholders he has to pacify, and you’d hope he’d be more conciliatory in the negotiations underway. But they’ll have to be quick if they want to reach a resolution and pass any necessary legislation before the default, yet markets remain clam, presumably assuming a compromise will be reached in the nick of time. Meanwhile the Fed remains divided too, although the general direction of travel seems to be more, not less, hikes. The same applies for the RBNMZ, with tomorrow’s expected rise unlikely to be the last. Today global PMIs will be keenly watched. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Buckle Up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride 16:38
16:38
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:38![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 22nd May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are distinctly uneasy at the start of the week, as the Republicans and Democrats are sticking to their entrenched position in US debt ceiling talks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s a sharp contrast to the upbeat tone on Thursday, so we can expect a large amount of volatility unless they pull something out of the hat on Monday. Meanwhile Jerome Powell hinted over the weekend that the Fed could pause in June, despite the rhetoric from other board members last week. Whilst Christine Lagarde says the ECB needs to buckle up’ to fight inflation. Also today, what impact in inflation and the RBAS will a rise in Australian minimum wages that’s in-line with inflation? Plus, the PBOC’s concerns about currency fluctuation, what to expect from the RBNZ this week and is Japan the new un-China? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 19th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are buoyed this morning by comments from US Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that he sees a path towards a deal with the Democrats over the US debt ceiling. That’s pushed equities and bond yields higher. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it would be premature to suggest that yesterday’s weaker employment numbers would impact the path of future hikes from the RBA, just as the latest data from the US is too choppy to draw any conclusions on what it means for the Fed. But it seems the increased spending by the NZ government in yesterday’s budget could contribute to an extra rate hike by the RBNZ. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 18th may 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have chosen to be optimistic over the US debt ceiling today, with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, saying a compromise was “doable”, maybe as soon as this week. And, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, Joe Biden is also positive, and the negotiating team has been reduced in size to nut out a solution. Japan’s GDP surprised on the upside yesterday and Australian wage growth came in as expected, but there’s still potential for them to rise further. Australia’s employment numbers are out this morning. All are discussed in today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 17th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a finely balanced decision by the RBA to lift rates at the last meeting, with the bank now saying they are focusing on productivity and wages. As JBWere’s Sally Auld discusses today, they don’t have to wait long for the next set of quarterly wages data out today – but the next productivity data comes a day after their next meeting. So, will they pause? We talk through a lot of data releases today, with the tone a little downbeat, pushing equities lower. And uncertainty grows about the debt ceiling, with the clock ticking and no sign of a resolution. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 16th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is the US careering towards a debt default? There’s only a couple of weeks until the point at which Janet Yellen has warned the US government could run out of money. But Biden and McCarthy are talking, so there is hope of a resolution. But NAB’s Skye Masters says its drawing a long bow to assume the slight increase in confidence in markets today is being driven by hopes on those talks. It was simply a session light on significant data to drive markets in any particular direction. It’s a different picture in the next 24 hours though, with a swathe of data, and growing uncertainty as each day passes without a debt ceiling resolution. In amongst the releases today, the RBA minutes, which will help explain the surprise decision to lift rates at the last meeting, with NAB now forecasting one more hike this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 15th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was further nervousness in the markets at the end of last week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a chunk of it came from the University of Michigan’s survey, which saw consumers raising the level they expected inflation to be at in five years’ time. It seemed an oversized response to a modest increase, but it is a statistic that the Fed likes to keep an eye on. The response could well be overturned by events this week, which include US retail sales, Canada’s CPI, UK labour market data and Australia’s wage price index and employment numbers. A busy week ahead, but a quiet start today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 12th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The BoE has raised rates (not a unanimous decision), but they are also expecting a bit more growth in the economy. We’ll see how that’s tracking with UK GDP numbers out today. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this could be the last one from the BoE, but it really depends on the UK inflation number later in the month. Meanwhile, further signs of softness in the US – where jobless claims rose more than expected – and China, where loans are well below expectations. Banks continue to add to the uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 11th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI has come in pretty much as expected, and yet we’ve seen falls in bond yields and increased talk of a Fed pause and rate cuts later in the year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was no doubt relief that the number didn’t go up. We’re heading in the right direction, albeit at a glacial pace. It’ll be a different story for the BoE this evening, with a 25bp rise expected, but how many more to follow? The ECB is also continuing its campaign of hawkish talk, with 4 more speakers in the next 24 hours. With a Fed on hold and the BoE and ECB still lifting rates, what does this do to the Aussie dollar? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 ECB sends clear message, with lots of slides 15:46
15:46
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:46![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 10th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Australia federal budget last night didn’t contain any surprises. As NAB’s David de Garis explains, it’s clear that Australia’s fiscal position is better than most, but that doesn’t mean inflation is under control. In the US the fiscal position is a particular worry as the debt ceiling could be reached as soon as June 1st and Biden and McCarty are going into talks intent on not budging their positions. Meanwhile, the ECB has been in full-hawk mode, talking up the expectations for rate hikes. Today rings us the most important number of the week – US inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 NAB Business Survey offers a glimmer of hope 16:37
16:37
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:37![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 9th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields continued to rise yesterday and overnight as markets seem to accept a more for longer approach from central banks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Business Survey yesterday showed that there was a fall in retail prices and final product prices, suggesting, perhaps, that inflation was coming under control. In the US the Senior Loan Officers survey in the US showed that lending conditions were tightening, with am impact on business credit demand. Whilst industrial production in Germany fell further in March, driven down by the automotive sector. It’ll be interesting to see how weak data like these impacts on the attitudes of the ECB, with Lane, Vasle and Rehn all talking over the next day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Labour market tightness vs the credit crunch 16:41
16:41
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:41![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 8th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A surprise increase in US jobs on Friday but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it probably won’t have scuppered expectations for a pause by the FOMC, unless there’s an unpleasant surprise in US inflation numbers this week. The question is, how much of the work of the Fed will now be done by the credit crunch? That makes today’s US Senior Loan Officers Survey particularly important. Also on today’s podcast, a look ahead to the BoE and a look back at Friday’s Statement of Monetary Policy from the RBA and why Aussie home loan commitments have picked up so much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 5th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB has lifted rates by 25 basis points and the expectation that there is more to come. NAB’s David de Garis said Christine Lagarde did raise concerns about credit tightening, but there was no suggestion of how that would change the rate path for the bank. Meanwhile, PacWest Bancorp looks likely to be the next US bank to disappear, with questions over how many other regional banks will follow. That uncertainty has led to a fourth day of falls in US shares. US payrolls are the main focus tonight, after data yesterday showed jobs are holding up, with wages still growing, and productivity falling. The Fed, obviously, wants to see none of those things. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 4th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC has met, lifted rates and there are suggestions of a pause. NAB’s Gavin Friend says its all down the removal of one the line from the policy statement: “some additional policy increases might be appropriate”. With that gone there was an immediate assumption that the Fed will stop lifting rates, but Jerome Powell seemed a lot less dovish in the press conference that followed. Listen in for a rundown of the decision and the takeouts from what followed. Next, it’s the ECB, which is also expected to lift rates by 25 basis points. But how much of the path is now determined by bank credit tightening, rather than traditional economic data like inflation and jobs? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 3rd May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA’s decision to lift rates seems to have kicked off a turbulent period on global markets. The US kicked off with big drops in oil prices, plunging share prices and rising bond yields. Not because eof the RBA. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks us through the uncertainty in the US on the eve of the FOMC meeting, with more bank worries and falling US job openings – with fewer quits and more layoffs. The ECB meeting isn’t far behind. We digest the latest inflation numbers for the Eurozone. And on the RBA, was that the last rise, or has it laid the path for more? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 One bank rescued, one central bank on hold 14:13
14:13
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:13![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 2nd May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets seemed unperturbed by the demise of another US commercial bank. NAB’s Skye Masters says the mood in bond markets is risk positive, perhaps because the FDIOC stepped in and negotiated a sale to JP Morgan. Markets were also influenced by the US ISM manufacturing read, which showed a rise in prices and employment. The ECB will be interested in the Euro area core inflation read today, whilst the RBA will almost certainly keep rates on hold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 A big week for central banks as US inflation hangs on 15:01
15:01
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:01![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 1st May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a big week for central banks, with the ECB and FOMC expected to lift rates. The US employment cost index and PCI deflator on Friday showed that prices in the US are taking a while to moderate. In Europe GDP numbers showed the economy is starting to slow, but the market still has a rate rise priced in. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still expected to keep rates on hold tomorrow. Over the weekend China reported weaker than expected manufacturing numbers, and on Friday the Bank of Japan kept rates on hold and a continued dedication to yield curve control, even as Tokyo’s inflation numbers jumped higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US economy is slowing, but consumers are still spending, labour market is still tight 16:53
16:53
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:53![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 28th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the latest GDP numbers from the US, reinforcing signs that the economy is slowing. But markets preferred to focus on the PCE read, showing prices are still rising, and the latest jobless claims which demonstrate how the labour market is easing at a glacial speed. Meanwhile equities are pushing higher helped by the latest earnings results, with Intel and Amazon the latest to report strong results. The focus today will be on how European GDP compares to the US slowdown, and the detail of the US employment cost index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Markets pulled between high tech and bank lows 16:22
16:22
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:22![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 27th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings (Meta is the latest on that front) and financials (and the rest) hit by banking uncertainty and recession fears. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s no evidence of systemic risk in the banking sector, but tightening credit conditions will weigh on the broader economy. Hence, big falls in oil today, which was one of two factors weighing on the Aussie dollar. The other, of course, is the weaker than expected inflation read for Australia yesterday. Could a more dovish RBA against a hawkish Fed see the Aussie fall further? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 26th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets took a hit after yesterday’s earnings results from First Republic Bank. JBWere’s Sally Auld says most of the movement overnight can be put down to the uncertainty this has created. The expectation that bank uncertainty had disappeared after just a few days was clearly a little optimistic. Softer economic data from the US overnight also dampened enthusiasm. But Microsoft and Alphabet shares kicked higher in after-hours trade, thanks to higher-than-expected earnings results. Today the focus is on Australia’s inflation numbers and what it means for the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 24th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Should we ignore the technical indicators? A recession seems even less likely after stronger than expected PMIs for the US and Europe on Friday. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland how central banks will respond to this, particularly if we see resilient employment costs and strong US and European GDP numbers this week. Locally, Australia’s inflation will attract the most attention. US earnings season is in full swing too, with some big tech names reporting tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 21st April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s definitely a more sombre mood this morning, with equities falling in the US and Europe. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton how much is this down to Tesla’s price cutting, and the need for a squeeze in margins to maintain demand. Yields are also down, with softer employment, manufacturing an housing data from the US. Couple that with falling inflation in New Zealand and the question has to be asked, at least for today, how far do central banks really need to go? We’ll get an update on jJust how soft global economies are today with PMIs for the US, Europe and the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 New RBA structure. BOE’s double digit problem. 16:09
16:09
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:09![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 20th April 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK’s inflation numbers were an unwelcome surprise yesterday, with the headline rate remaining in double digits, at 10.1%. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are now expectations for three more hikes from the Bank of England, which has seen bond yields rising sharply. Other asset classes have seen very little movement, with the Fed’s Beige book describing a US economy that is, at best, stagnant. The proposed new structure of the RBA will be a focus today – we discuss the proposal in today’s podcast – along with NZ CPI out this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 19th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Freedom has turned into a shopping frenzy in China, but it’s not reflected in capex or industrial production. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this retail growth will be short lived and, if not, could it be inflationary? Meanwhile, inflation remains stubborn in Canada, employment numbers rise in the UK and the RBA minutes yesterday suggest a rate rise could still be in play next week. Central banks plan to do a lot more it seems. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 18th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a quiet session overnight with US equities struggling to get into the green until the very last gasp and bond yields pushing higher. NAB’s David de Garis says there will have been some encouragement from the Empire Manufacturing Index which moved from minus 24.6 to a positive 10.8, driven by strong forward orders. But there’s a lot of volatility in regional manufacturing reports, so will it stick? Today the RBA releases minutes of the last meeting and there’s a swathe of China data to absorb. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 17th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There remains some confusion over how far and fast central banks will move, as banking concerns subside. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses today, the Fed is sending very mixed messages, with Christopher Waller suggesting the fight against inflation has only seen sideways moves so far, whilst Raphael Bostic seems happy to pause after one more hike. Yet last week Golsbee and Daly were wondering whether any further hikes were needed at all. Locally, NZ inflation this week will be one highlight, and could be a useful guide for the direction of prices in Australia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 RBA’s dilemma - more working, less job ads 15:38
15:38
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:38![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 14th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday we saw a surprise increase in the number of Australians working last month. So, does that mean a greater likelihood of more hikes form the RBA? Certainly a higher Aussie dollar and rising bond yields are suggesting that. It’s a question put to NAB’s David de Garis. There’s also discussion about the UK’s stagnant outlook, with GDP flatlining and mortgage defaults rising. Hopes of easing inflation I the US were helped by a fall in producer prices. Maybe increased exports from China will help too. Perhaps a weakening in consumer demand through today’s US retail sales will add to that picture. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 13th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The headline rate for US inflation fell and for a moment bond yield showed significant falls. But, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, the core readings were less hopeful. It wasn’t long after the release that the Fed’s Thomas Barkin reiterated the need to do more to get inflation down to 2%. But there was some concern amongst the Fed’s ranks at the last FOMC meeting as credit conditions worsened. Could inflation come down by itself? The Bank of Canada is happy to sit it out, keeping rates on hold yesterday and still expecting to reach their 2% target next year. Today the focus is on Australian employment numbers and, perhaps, the weekly jobless claims in the US, which went down last time, suggesting more people in work. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 12th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There will be a lot of focus on the US CPI number tonight, with an expected fall in the headline rate. There could be quite a market response if there are signs that inflation hasn’t peaked. NAB’s Skye asters believes markets still have unrealistically high expectations of rate cuts later in the year, echoing comments that Jerome Powell gave at the last FOMC press conference. We get top read the full minutes of that meeting later today. This morning we also look into yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and Australia’s strong consumer confidence read, which was helped by the RBA’s ‘hold’ decision, again based on the assumption that inflation has peaked. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 11th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s the start of a what could be a volatile short week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it seems markets have taken the non-farm payrolls at face value, seeing no dramatic fall in jobs as a sign that the Fed will stick with its hawkish tilt. But the weekly jobless claims have been revised upwards and there’s other evidence that job layoffs are increasing. As markets adjust to the jobs news, there’s also the anticipation of this week’s US inflation read, and a few major bank earnings results this week too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 RBNZ takes large mallet from the toolkit 13:50
13:50
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:50![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 6th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t anything subtle about the RBNZ rate move yesterday, so why the sharp contrast with the action – or lack of it- taken by the RBA this week. NAB’s David de Garis looks at potential reasons, and helps to dissect Philip Lowe’s Press Club lunch speech yesterday. Also, more soft data from the US and further signs that non-farm payrolls on Friday could show a move south, easing pressure on the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 5th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We’re not afraid to admit we got it wrong on the RBA, who kept rates on hold yesterday. Unlike a certain US President we are prepared to plead guilty as charged. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains why the bank didn’t move and looks ahead to the next meeting and beyond. Meanwhile, we’re confident the RBNZ will lift rates today. Also today, further signs of softening in the US, including a fall in job openings, with more US employment data out later tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Weaker US manufacturing data offsets oil inflation concerns 18:28
18:28
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt18:28![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 4th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil prices are up on the back of the OPEC+ cuts announced yesterday. That pushed bond yields a little higher. JB Were’s Sally Auld days rising prices could be problematic for central banks if they keep rising, but there current level is unlikely to have much impact. In fact, yields starting falling as US manufacturing data signified a slowdown in the sector, with a fall in the employment index suggesting that maybe non-farm payrolls on Friday will show an easing in the jobs market and help ease future inflation pressures. The key event today of course, is the RBA meeting, where NAB is still forecasting a 25 bp rise. If it doesn’t happen today, it’ll happen next month is the expectation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 3rd April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation is showing signs of slowing in the US, with a lower than expected Core PCE deflator read on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this was the primary reason for a fall in bond yields on Friday. But models pointing to lower headline inflation driven by lower energy costs will be in need of a revision today, as OPEC+ announce a daily 1.2 million barrel cut in oil production from next month. The announcement was unexpected. It’ll add pressure to European economies, where core inflation rose slightly last month. On todays podcast we look ahead to the RBA and RBNZ this week, and the consequences of the Aston by-election result over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 US banking on a slowdown. NAB’s new call on the RBA 15:50
15:50
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:50![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Friday 31st March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US banking stocks took a hit overnight as central bankers warned of a credit crunch and Joe Biden called for reforms to regulations. Other shares rose though, even though weekly job numbers showed continued labour market tightness. In Australia job vacancies have fallen a little and NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about how the bank has revised its call on the rate path for the RBA. Today the focus will be on inflation in Europe and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Aussie inflation falls further. Job done for the RBA? 16:42
16:42
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:42![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 30th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were calm overnight, but NAB’s David de Garis says that doesn’t translate to confidence. The market is still wondering what is round the corner, but he points out that a lot of the concern has been contained within the US. Meanwhile inflation in Australia came in lower than expected yesterday. Does that mean the job is done for the RBA? For the rest of the week inflation numbers will garner the most attention, starting with Germany and Spain today, and the US and the Eurozone tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 29th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t much happening yesterday and overnight, so markets were relatively calm. The US senate banking committee quizzed the regulator over banking collapses and perhaps reassured markets that the future looked more peaceful. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says we can’t assume nothing else will break as capital is repriced with rising rates. Australian inflation data is released today after a small positive move up in retail sales in February. It’s the last piece of data to feed into the RBA decision next week, with the evidence leaning to a lift either next week or next month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 28th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Banking fears have subsided somewhat overnight, with a buyer found for Silicon Valley Bank and less concern, for whatever reason, over Deutsche Bank. Hence, equities have risen and so have bond yields, as focus returns on how far central banks will go. Quite a bit further if you listen to the likes of Isabel Schnabel at the ECB or Andrew Bailey at the BoE. But markets are still pricing in cuts later this year. NAB's Ray Attrill talks through why the discrepancy between central banks and markets and makes a bold prediction on what the RBA will do next week. Today’s retail numbers and inflation later in the week could still influence the outcome, of course. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 27th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Uncertainty returned to markets on Friday. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says concerns over Deutsche Bank was the source of volatility for equity markets in Europe and in early trade in the US. It’s not clear whether there is anything to be concerned about - Olaf Schulz, the German Chancellor, says not. Meanwhile, central banks are determined to continue on their counter-inflationary path of rate hikes, with some I the Fed expecting a few more of them before they are finished. So, what of the RBA? We get the monthly inflation data and retail sales this week, but it seems likely they will raise next week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 24th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Three more hikes in a day. Even though we reckoned yesterday that the Bank of England wouldn’t do it, overnight they did lift rates. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there is no hiding from a rising inflation rate, even if it proves to be a temporary blip in a more gradual move down, it’s still very high. He suggests it could serve as a reminder that the RBA also has to keep its eye on the ball. Only significant signs of a weakening economy will change the attitude of central banks, who have separated out their monetary goals from banking pressures. Todays PMIs will give a snapshot of how some of the leading economies are faring. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Fed hikes, BoE given a nasty inflation surprise 15:12
15:12
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:12![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 23rd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As envisaged, the FOMC meeting has agreed to a 25bp rate hike in the US, with Jerome Powell indicating there is more to come. But, as discussed with NAB’s Gavin Friend, the Fed chair has suggested that it’s possible that credit tightening from banks, after the recent turmoil, will do some of the work for them. Next, it’s the Bank of England. It seemed likely that there would be no move but could that change with a surprise increase in UK inflation announced yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 22nd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets seem to have cast off concerns about banking risk contagion. NAB’s Skye Masters says market confidence has been helped by reassurances from Janet Yellen that the US federal government is “resolutely committed” to mitigating financial stability risks. Authorities are also investigating ways to remove the upper cap on deposits covered by FDIC insurance. That’s all helped to boost equities and drive strong increases in bond yields. The question remains, has there been any lasting impact on the speed and destination for central banks? A 25 basis point hike is well-priced for the FOMC tomorrow, but the revised dot-plots will be of more interest. Catch all the news on that in tomorrow morning’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 21st March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were relatively calm on the first day after the announcement of the Credit Suisse-UBS deal. One risk of contagion was in the AT1 (addition tier one) bond markets, as Credit Suisse wrote their $17 billion value down to zero, leaving bondholders with nothing. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there seems to be some acceptance that this is a Swiss-only story, and AT1 bondholders would count before equities in the pecking order in the case of other banking right downs. So, now, as markets seem to be accepting that the banking crisis is contained, does that mean central banks – like the Fed this week – can push higher on rates? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 20th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for US$2billion, a fraction of it’s value at Friday’s close. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about the consequences of this arrangement and the ongoing uncertainty in the US regional banking sector. Could this mean we see bond yields falling further and watered down expectations for central bank hikes, including the BoE and Fed this week? How can central banks tread the path between fuelling more banking uncertainty and pursuing their path for controlling inflation? The first central banker to face such difficult questions could be the RBA’s Christopher Kent, first thing today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 17th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Whilst money is being poured in to solve liquidity issues at Credit Suisse, the ECB has been keen to stay on track with a 50bp rate hike yesterday. It’s been suggested that anything less would have been seen as a sign of bigger troubles and spread panic in a nervous market. Hence, bond yields and equities have come bouncing back overnight. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are less sure of a rate hike from the RBA next month, even though Australia reported a strong increase in employment yesterday and an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 16th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Another day, another banking crisis. This time it’s Credit Suisse causing problems, somewhat bigger than SVB, but it’s hard to understand the fundamental reason for the concern, other than blind panic and a bank that has seen massive capital outflows last year. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s unlikely to stop the ECB from pushing ahead with a rate rise later today, but banking uncertainty has certainly switched attitudes in the US on where the Fed is heading, with growing expectations that they will start cutting rates in the second half of the year, possibly up to 100bp before Christmas. The Fed’s job has been made a little easier with softer data overnight, including a flat PPI read for February. Locally, New Zealand’s Q4 GDP is the focus today whilst elsewhere the question is, what happens next? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 15th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is it crisis over. As CPI numbers came out in the US showing the Fed still had more work to do, it seems the focus shifting back onto rate hikes and away from major concerns about bank stability. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it’s not a total retreat. After yesterday’s CPI and last week’s US payrolls there would have been every reason to expect a 50bp hike next week, but markets seem more set on 25bp. Today’s retail numbers will play into that decision. Sally says the RBA is lucky that it’s next meeting is not so imminent, but yesterday’s NAB business survey showed labour costs picking up a little, which is a concern. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 14th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just after Janet Yellen said there would be no bailout for SVB the US financial regulators stepped in promising that no depositor would be out of pocket. Good news for companies left exposed, but its done little to calm the markets with bond yields falling further and some analysts predicting an end to rises, at least for now, from the Fed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says its likely they will push ahead with their fight against inflation, but on a slower path. It’s still possible that the ECB will lift rates by 50bp this week. But what if the US inflation read today comes in stronger than expected? How do markets react then? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 13th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The collapse of SVB on Friday created turmoil in the markets. Bond yields fell across the board, but particularly at the front end of the yield curve. Equities were also hit and the US dollar took a hit, with the uncertainty meaning the Aussie didn’t benefit from the fall. So how does the Fed respond to this shock to the system, which has been facilitated in part by rising bond yields. NAB’S Tapas Strickland reckons the Fed will be more cautious with future hikes and a 50bp hike next week is looking less likely. The collapse overtook any interest in Friday’s non-farm payrolls, which showed an upside surprise in employment numbers but a rise in the unemployment rate. The surprise from the Bank of Japan was no surprise, with Kuroda leaving quietly with no change in policy. Meanwhile, the PBoC is sticking with Governor Yi at the helm, but possibly only fore a few months. There’s a bit of uncertainty to be navigated through, it seems. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 10th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are clearly preparing for a fall in payrolls numbers tonight, with bond yields falling markedly in the US and the dollar notably weaker. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets have been influenced by the weekly jobless claims, which rose a little, and the Challenger jobs report, which showed a high number of layoffs in January and February. They clearly shrugged off the ADP umbers from a day earlier, which came in stronger than expected. Hopes of an end to rising inflation will have been helped by a negative PPI read from China. The Bank of Japan meets today, for the last time for Governor Kuroda. There’s been talk about a last-minute surprise, but could the surprise actually be no surprise at all. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 9th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a lot of water between where Jerome Powell sees the Fed heading and how Philip Lowe is seeing things from the RBA’s viewpoint. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s been no market retreat from yesterday’s positions, when we saw the US dollar rise, Aussie dollar fall and a divergence in yields, with US treasuries rising and Aussie yields falling. Speeches from Philip Lowe and Jerome Powell have done little to change the mood. Meanwhile the Bank of Canada is on hold, with further rises possible. And US data overnight did nothing to dispel the idea that the labour market there remains tight, suggesting the Fed will stick with the plan to do more, with a rising expectation for a 50bp hike at the next FOMC meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 RBA less hawkish, Powell more so. Big market response. 16:09
16:09
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt16:09![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 8th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big market moves overnight thanks to a slightly less hawkish RBA yesterday and a more hawkish sounding Jerome Powell in front of a US senate committee. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still committed to further tightening but raised the potential for a pause in hikes, after yesterday’s 25bp lift. The usual caveat – that it’s all data dependent – still applies. It’s the same for the US of course, with payrolls on Friday and CPI next week two very influential data prints to look out for. Meanwhile Jerome Powell started his appearance overnight by saying “the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.” Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 To Pause or Not to Pause? That is the RBA question. 13:01
13:01
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt13:01![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Tuesday 7th March 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian bond yields fell sharply yesterday ahead of the RBA meeting today. NAB’s Skye Masters says this shows there’s an expectation that the central bank will pause after today’s rate hike and we can expect some repricing in bonds if they instead signal a series of consecutive hikes. The uncertainty around what central banks do next was demonstrated by the ECB overnight, with speakers still divided between hiking, if so by how much, or pausing. As to the latest Fed thinking, Jerome Powell’s testimony tonight (Australia time) will be particularly important. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 A great week for those who like volatility 14:27
14:27
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:27![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Monday 6th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As NAB’s Ray Attrill puts it on this morning’s podcast, three central banks, two days of testimony from Jerome Powell,. Topped off by US payrolls numbers – what’s not to like. Provided you thrive on volatility, of course, because any of those events has the power to change the direction of markets. They finished last week with quiet optimism, with equities pushing higher and bond yields falling. We look at why that might be and suggest one surprise this week could come from the Bank of Japan, the last meeting of Governor Kuroda who might be prepared to spring a surprise, particularly as inflation keeps rising. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 3rd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Having pushed above 4 percent, US 10 year Treasury yields lurched higher still overnight, with yields up in Europe too and a sharper rise in Australian 10 year yields. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are responding to the revised Q4 numbers of US labour costs and productivity. Meanwhile European inflation was higher than expected yet it curiously wasn’t reflected in equities overnight. US Services ISM will be the key number to watch today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 China bouncing back, BoE holding back, Treasuries kick higher 15:16
15:16
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt15:16![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Thursday 2nd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a session of mixed news overnight. US 10 year treasury yields have hit 4 percent as expectations continue to mount for higher rates for longer. In China the PMIs came in higher than expected. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we are seeing the same picture we saw in western economies as they came out of lockdown, with a faster bounce back than anticipated. In Australia the GDP data showed a softening of demand, but yields reacted to a rise in the monthly CPI number. In the UK the central bank governor suggested there was not necessarily any need to raise rates, but the mood is very different in Europe with the region’s inflation number expected to kick higher today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Wednesday 1st March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a growing concern that inflation is creeping back into Europe. That’s the case in France and Spain, with Germany’s CPI numbers out today and the Euro Area inflation print tomorrow. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are already pricing in a higher terminal rate, with the ECB’s Philip Lane talking up more rate hikes for longer. So how far will they go? Meanwhile, the Canadian economy has ground to a halt, and NAB has downgraded its forecast for Australian GDP today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Tuesday 28th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The pound rose sharply higher today on the news that a deal had been struck with the EU over the problems of the UK’s internal trade with Northern Ireland. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets have responded to the pragmatism of Rishi Sunak and the hope that it signals the start of a better future for UK-EU trade down the track. Meanwhile, US equities have bounced back today, even though expectations of a higher Fed terminal rate have settled in to place. Is it those buying the dip or the return of the soft-landing brigade? The drip-feed of EU inflation data will be the focus today, ahead of the full number tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Monday 27th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were shaken on Friday when the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator – showed an unexpected bounce back. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was one of a series of strong numbers at the end of last week, and talks through the implications for the Fed, with some voting members talking of the need to be even more than previously signalled. The news has pushed bond yields higher, particularly at the front end of the curve. Meanwhile equity investors are being forced to question their optimism. And the damage is not restricted to the US with investors wondering whether this week’s European inflation read will tell a similar story. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Friday 24th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US GDP has been revised down slightly for Q4. NAB’s Ken Crompton says its been driven by lower than expected consumption numbers. The Fed will also be concerned by the quarterly GDP deflator, which has shown prices rising more than anticipated. Eyes will be on the January numbers for prices and consumption out tonight. To add to the US woes, jobless claims fell last week adding to a string of data suggesting the tightness in the labour market is taking a long time to ease. We’re a week away from non-farm payrolls. Remember the impact last time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Thursday 23rd February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s not a lot that’s new on the FOMC minutes out this morning, according to NAB’s David de Garis. Several members had talked of higher rate rises, but there wasn’t much too much for investors to change the expected path of hikes this year. But it might be a different story for the RBA with Australian wage inflation lower than expected yesterday. Meanwhile, wages are rising in Japan, higher than the rate of inflation adding extra pressure on the BoJ. And the UK government might increase the rate of public sector pay to try and break the strike deadlock the country is facing. It’s been a wage where wages have been front and centre. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1 Resilience and hope drives bond yields higher 14:34
14:34
Spill senere
Spill senere
Lister
Lik
Likt14:34![icon](https://imagehost.player.fm/icons/general/red-pin.svg)
Wednesday 22nd February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The latest PMI data has shown more resilience in the global economy, with service sector reads significantly exceeding expectations in Europe, the UK and the United States. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about how this will impact central bank decisions, with bond yields rising on these latest findings. Also, the latest inflation numbers from Canada, fighting talk from Putin and Biden, and could the UK be on the brink of a meaningful Northern Ireland border solution? Ahead today Australian wages data and the RBNZ rate decision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Velkommen til Player FM!
Player FM scanner netter for høykvalitets podcaster som du kan nyte nå. Det er den beste podcastappen og fungerer på Android, iPhone og internett. Registrer deg for å synkronisere abonnement på flere enheter.